Presidential Prediction's

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

(IMHO),I predict tomorrows presidential outcome to be;

John Kerry - 50.5% (a mandate)
G W Bush - 47.5%
Ralph Nader - 2.0%

I base this on 2 facts. "A" + "B"

B. (first),

A very large number of "first time" young (18-29) voters who are being seen as voting for Kerry, approximately 75%.

A. (Native) American Indians.

In a number of swing states (MN, WI, NM) this group of Americans, who are Never mentioned, and don't usually vote in large numbers, are reported to be coming out in Large numbers for Kerry.

Also, in a very close and important Senate race in hard core GOP state South Dakota, Indians will save (D)Tom Daschle's "bacon", by coming off of the 4 big reservations, and vote for Daschle.


NH/BB's

Ps.
Mr Moderator, I realize that this topic, is OFF TOPIC, but seeing that election day only occurs once every 4 years, mabey you'll permit this thread "some life" for a little while.

Thank You !

 

[eolesen]

Hope springs eternal, Bears, but I think you left out a couple stats and states...

African-Americans are expected to vote 10-15% in favor of Bush, which is up from single digit Republican support in previous elections.

Hispanics are also increasing in their support of Bush, which will swing more than a few votes.

And in Oklahoma, which arguably has more Native Americans than places like MN and SD, voting Republican is a way of life.

Hopefully, we'll have a better idea in about 24 hours, but I doubt we'll know for sure before the weekend, thanks to the lawyers...

I agree that it will be a 50-46 split, but in Bush's favor.

 

[Fly]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

Strong Kerry (91)
Weak Kerry (139)
Barely Kerry (68)
Exactly tied (9)
Barely Bush (26)
Weak Bush (33)
Strong Bush (172)
Needed to win: 270

 

[FA Mikey]

john ward GONE, george bush GONE (fingers crossed)

 

[jimntx]

I went to vote early a week ago yesterday (Sunday). I thought that if I showed up when the early voting station opened at 1300, all the good church folk would still be at Luby's cafeteria. Instead, you could not stir the people with a baseball bat. It took me almost an hour to vote. One of the poll workers said that it had been like that all day every day since the early voting started the previous Monday (17OCT).

Conventional wisdom has always held that a large turnout favors the Democrats. Let us pray that the CW is right this time.

 

[Fly]

My husband stood in line, OUTSIDE...ughh, for about 2 hours yesterday and gave up when they said it would be about 3 more hours. He's gonna try again tomorrow. Hope it works for the Dems.

 

[WingNaPrayer]

In FL, the state the entire world has under a magnifying glass right now, lines were anywhere from 3 to 6 hours long. Some early voting stations, which are staffed by volunteers, closed promptly at 3PM and early voters were denied the chance to vote early. Hopefully, on election day, with all precincts open and the voters more evenly distributed the wait won't be as long. The problem is, FL, as they always do in order to cloud the real issues, has a ballot that is chocked full of number amendments, which people choose to stand there at the machine and read rather than be prepared ahead of time. The average voter is supposed to take 1.5 minutes to vote. In FL, that average is 7-15 minutes because of all the ballot amendments.

Many foreign countries, including the UK and African nations, have, through the United Nations, sent voting monitor representatives to "watch" the voting process in Florida in order to report back to the UN, and their own countries, on the process, most specifically any irregularities. With upwards of 50,000 first time voters in Broward county alone about to be rejected at the polls when they go to vote (because their registrations were challenged or returned) it should prove to be an interesting day. Literally thousands of absentee ballots were returned as undeliverable. What people don't realize is that once they apply for an absentee ballot, their name is stricken from the precinct records and they will not be allowed to vote in their precinct, which means there will be a massive mad rush on the elections office by people demanding an explanation. (I'm sorry, but if you are too stupid to put your correct address on your absentee application . . . .duh!)

Of course, Michael Moore is in FL, camping out in West Palm Beach with cameras at the ready. Both parties have hundreds of lawyers standing by, ready to fly into court for an injunction at the drop of a hat, should any voter be denied their right to vote.

With FL now voting 100% electronic, and NO WAY whatsoever to do a valid recount in case of a close vote (no paper trail, just the way the republicans like it) FL once again is going to be a national embarassment, and this time the cameras of the world are here and ready to broadcast it first hand.

I estimate an attempted recount in FL at least a dozen times, and the final outcome of the FL vote most likely won't be certified until after Thanksgiving - unless of course, the Supreme Court steps in and elects a president on behalf of the American people again, which I fully expect them to do.

Remember, in a presidential election, the popular vote does not count. It is the only election we have in America where the will of the people can be circumvented by a handful of electors from each state . . . for our own good. The electoral college is the reason many people don't vote, all other given reasons are incidental and unimportant.

With the entire world watching Florida today, and cameras from virtually every nook and cranny of the world fired up via satellite . . .and, knowing how terrorists just LOVE publicity, I won't be surprised if something very ugly goes down in FL today . . . other than the election that is.

I disagree with Bear, I predict Shrub the winner of this election, but once again, it won't be the votes that give it to him. I hope I'm wrong, and if I am, I fully expect each and every one of you to bombard me with great big giant capitalized I TOLD YOU SO's!

 

[Imagolfer]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

Strong Kerry (91)
Weak Kerry (139)
Barely Kerry (68)
Exactly tied (9)
Barely Bush (26)
Weak Bush (33)
Strong Bush (172)
Needed to win: 270

[post="197230"][/post]​

Fly I hope this poll predictor is right, but I am a little weary..If you go to the web-site and read his bio...he is a Democrat living overseas, so he has a bias.

Let's hope this poll stands!!

 

[Fly]

True, he is. BUT........those polls are all the biggies stuck together and updated daily. (helps with the creditability) I sure hope he's right and hope his brother doesn't try to f it up again.

 

[FA Mikey]

bush the gov, made it impossible to recount. There is no paper trail with these machines. While I was voting the person behind me seleced there canadates and left, didnt push that little vote button. Pollworkers couldnt remember the, or find the person. At least on vote not counted already.

 

[whlinder]

I think Kerry is going to win comfortably. I think he wins the 4 big swing states (FL/PA/OH/MI) and most of the other swing states. I think he might even steal VA or WV.

 

[jsn25911]

I think Kerry is going to win comfortably. I think he wins the 4 big swing states (FL/PA/OH/MI) and most of the other swing states. I think he might even steal VA or WV.

[post="197352"][/post]​

I hope Kerry wins
I hope Kerry wins........my only hope for this country is in Kerry!

 

[QQ3270]

BUSH WILL WIN FLORIDA AND OHIO AND BACK TO MASS FOR THE FLIP FLOPPER LIBERAL DEMOCRAP KERRY

 

[Fly]

Yeah, and then we can all make the same types of wages as Reno Air. Wow, can't wait. Exit polls show that Florida is going to Kerry.....hope it keeps up.

 

[The Dissident]

Lets just hope BUSH wins for the sake of and security of this country. What I find intresting is that in his latest video OBL endorsed thats right endorsed kerry. So its a simple for you to understand. OBL wants kerry in office, Kin Jung Il of north korea wants kerry in office.Therefore the democrats have the same goal in common with the terrorists and north korea. The destruction of america. If kerry does succeed in getting elected you can pat yourself on your back for helping to weaken America and give strength to her enemies.