Seeing Who Can Stay In The Pool The Longest

[Whadayano]

I could start this topic under any airline or maybe it should be somewhere else and the moderator can decide. But since oil and spcifically jet kerosene costs are so important to the airlines, as AMR's announcement today that fuel is going to cost them an extra billion this year brought home so vividly, I wanted to see if anyone has any thoughts about fuel prices and where they'll be, oh, say the end of 2005. I put it under Continental because I wanted to use Gordon Bethune's great quote about the legacy carriers current state of being for the topic title.

Anyway, I'm going to guess oil settles around $33 a barrel, end of 2005. Can anyone translate that into a jet fuel per gallon price?

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I could start this topic under any airline or maybe it should be somewhere else and the moderator can decide. But since oil and spcifically jet kerosene costs are so important to the airlines, as AMR's announcement today that fuel is going to cost them an extra billion this year brought home so vividly, I wanted to see if anyone has any thoughts about fuel prices and where they'll be, oh, say the end of 2005. I put it under Continental because I wanted to use Gordon Bethune's great quote about the legacy carriers current state of being for the topic title.

Anyway, I'm going to guess oil settles around $33 a barrel, end of 2005. Can anyone translate that into a jet fuel per gallon price?

[post="173145"][/post]​

I'll reply to your question.

In my opinion the following airlines (legacy's and LCC's) will be the last one's "out of the pool".

1. AA
2. NW
3. WN
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

Plz feel free, to "fill in" the rest !!

NH/BB's

 

[SVQLBA]

I'll reply to your question.

In my opinion the following airlines (legacy's and LCC's) will be the last one's "out of the pool".

1. AA
2. NW
3. WN
4.
[snip]
NH/BB's

[post="173186"][/post]​

With NW, I feel it's only a matter of time before a low-fare carriers takes them on (maybe DTW first?). Without their fortress hubs I wonder how well they would actually stack up.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

With NW, I feel it's only a matter of time before a low-fare carriers takes them on (maybe DTW first?). Without their fortress hubs I wonder how well they would actually stack up.

[post="173319"][/post]​

===============================================

SVQLBA,

FYI,
Looong before DTW was a hub for BIG RED, they were making many $$$ millions flying in and out of their "#1" most valuable hub.

NRT (Narita-Tokyo JAPAN) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Southwest/Jet Blue/air tran/america west/Branson ?-------WHO" ???????

NH/BB's

 

[coolflyingfool]

I believe that Tokyo passengers and freight rights give NWA a very big leg up!

 

[Whadayano]

I don't see how you can think AA will outlast WN. WN has the best balance sheet in the business, AA still has huge debt repayments and pension obligations over the next 5 years. As for NWA, they're fine until they have to replace the DC-9's, which will take all their cash.

 

[coolflyingfool]

I would think that a lot of the DC-9s will be replaced by some form of RJ. I am not looking for NWA to place an order for 150 more A319s. But I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again. Just my thoughts......

 

[Whadayano]

I think they need more than 100 seats--since they can't get around the scope clause imo, might as well go for something that allows a little growth--if Airbus will cut them a deal....

 

[SVQLBA]

I believe that Tokyo passengers and freight rights give NWA a very big leg up!

[post="173783"][/post]​

Yup -- Pacific will be safe -- or safer. Even that's eroding. WIth longer range aircraft, NRT is less valuable as a hub than it was (why connect at NRT when you can get to HKG, SIN, or Baiyun direct?). And I'm sure there are start-ups and others eyeing the Pacific just as we see people eyeing the Atlantic closely.

Helps a lot, but it will be threatened eventually. On the Cargo side, there's a lot of freighter capacity coming online at the Asian companies -- we'll see how that affects Asia-US yields ...

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I don't see how you can think AA will outlast WN. WN has the best balance sheet in the business, AA still has huge debt repayments and pension obligations over the next 5 years. As for NWA, they're fine until they have to replace the DC-9's, which will take all their cash.

[post="173932"][/post]​

================================================

Whadayano,

VERY surprised you perhaps forgot that AA is 1/2 of AMR Corp.

So the question then becomes AMR vs WN.

AMR, that same AMR that owns "American Eagle."

In a (hypothetical) Very DIRE situation, (with a drastic scope clause change) AMR would have AA flying heavy metal on International and transcons, while AMR had Eagle flying domestic with some sort of 90 seat a/c, piloted by A/E AND AA pilots, via "flow thru agreement.

If you've been around this industry the last 25 years, NEVER, EVER count out AA(AMR) !!!!!!!

NH/BB's

If it makes you feel more comfortable, allow me to state that "AA,NW and WN "NEVER" leave the "pool" !!!

 

[Fly]

Never say never. There are NO sure things in this industry. Think about it...25 years ago, you would have been proud to work for PanAm.