MrMarky
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I am particularily interested in hearing UAL777Flyer''s comments about my post below as well as his general assessment of Tilton and whether that''s the man, or kind of man, he was hoping for.
The present UAL management has already stated that they need to have union concessions in place by September 14 in order to have a chance at staving off bankruptcy.
I have been watching what''s going on at US Airways, where the issues are almost identical. They seem to be playing the same game but they''re a couple of innings ahead. U''s CEO Dave Siegel, told the workgroups that if he didn''t have concessions by a date certain from every group, he would file Chapter 11. The date came, he didn''t have concessions from the IAM (big surprise!!) or CWA represented agents by the pre-established date, and he immediately filed.
Based upon that scenario I have concluded that UAL would probably file around September 15, particularily when they upped the ante on the size of concessions, causing even the ALPA pilots to step back. Was the increase in concession demands a deliberate ploy to trigger Chapter 11? UAL says the ATSB is demanding more employee concessions. I can see the ATSB insisting on reaching certain targets on the balance sheet before they will commit to guaranteeing loans, but specifying how that is achieved is really none of their business.
In any event, Mr. Tilton comes on board with a stop watch already inevitably headed for zero. From what I can see, he has 11 days to prevent a bankruptcy. That would seem to be a rather daunting task.
I have to believe he came into this position either agreeing to the fact that a Chapter 11 is definitely going to happen -- and soon, or genuinely believing that he has at least a reasonable chance of avoiding Chapter 11 and turning things around. He must have gotten a good look at the numbers; he must have gotten a good assessment of the labor situation; he must have gotten a reliable evaluation of industry trends; he must have gotten a clear picture of what the ATSB will and will not accept; he must have gotten a fact-based impression that it is still possible to turn things around. I''m sure the man enjoys a challenge, but it seems unlikely a guy of his stature would take this position knowing full well bankruptcy was already inevitable. Unless that is, he was on the way out at Chevron-Texaco and saw the writing on the wall. >From what we know so far, that seems doubtful, but you never know.
So is he really out of time and has he been groomed to preside over a Chapter 11? Or does he have reason to be convinced that it can be avoided? If so, will he withdraw the company''s request for the ATSB loan guarantees? This would send the markets a strong message that United has confidence in its ability to weather this storm and it would get labor''s head out of the vice and buy some time to negotiate reasonable agreements which both parties can live with.
So as I see it, it''s all or nothing. I can''t believe he took the position knowing full well that bankruptcy is right around the corner, so I have to believe he has been convinced he has at least a fighting chance of pulling the company from the abyss late in the fourth quarter, with the clock ticking, no time outs, fourth down and about half the field to go. We''ll soon find out if he''s Joe Montana! [:bigsmile:]
I hope everyone, employees and customers alike, will give this guy a fair shake. He deserves the benefit of the doubt if he''s going to have a chance to succeed. I can hardly wait to see what he comes up with.
Good luck to him and to all of you at United.
Marky
The present UAL management has already stated that they need to have union concessions in place by September 14 in order to have a chance at staving off bankruptcy.
I have been watching what''s going on at US Airways, where the issues are almost identical. They seem to be playing the same game but they''re a couple of innings ahead. U''s CEO Dave Siegel, told the workgroups that if he didn''t have concessions by a date certain from every group, he would file Chapter 11. The date came, he didn''t have concessions from the IAM (big surprise!!) or CWA represented agents by the pre-established date, and he immediately filed.
Based upon that scenario I have concluded that UAL would probably file around September 15, particularily when they upped the ante on the size of concessions, causing even the ALPA pilots to step back. Was the increase in concession demands a deliberate ploy to trigger Chapter 11? UAL says the ATSB is demanding more employee concessions. I can see the ATSB insisting on reaching certain targets on the balance sheet before they will commit to guaranteeing loans, but specifying how that is achieved is really none of their business.
In any event, Mr. Tilton comes on board with a stop watch already inevitably headed for zero. From what I can see, he has 11 days to prevent a bankruptcy. That would seem to be a rather daunting task.
I have to believe he came into this position either agreeing to the fact that a Chapter 11 is definitely going to happen -- and soon, or genuinely believing that he has at least a reasonable chance of avoiding Chapter 11 and turning things around. He must have gotten a good look at the numbers; he must have gotten a good assessment of the labor situation; he must have gotten a reliable evaluation of industry trends; he must have gotten a clear picture of what the ATSB will and will not accept; he must have gotten a fact-based impression that it is still possible to turn things around. I''m sure the man enjoys a challenge, but it seems unlikely a guy of his stature would take this position knowing full well bankruptcy was already inevitable. Unless that is, he was on the way out at Chevron-Texaco and saw the writing on the wall. >From what we know so far, that seems doubtful, but you never know.
So is he really out of time and has he been groomed to preside over a Chapter 11? Or does he have reason to be convinced that it can be avoided? If so, will he withdraw the company''s request for the ATSB loan guarantees? This would send the markets a strong message that United has confidence in its ability to weather this storm and it would get labor''s head out of the vice and buy some time to negotiate reasonable agreements which both parties can live with.
So as I see it, it''s all or nothing. I can''t believe he took the position knowing full well that bankruptcy is right around the corner, so I have to believe he has been convinced he has at least a fighting chance of pulling the company from the abyss late in the fourth quarter, with the clock ticking, no time outs, fourth down and about half the field to go. We''ll soon find out if he''s Joe Montana! [:bigsmile:]
I hope everyone, employees and customers alike, will give this guy a fair shake. He deserves the benefit of the doubt if he''s going to have a chance to succeed. I can hardly wait to see what he comes up with.
Good luck to him and to all of you at United.
Marky