US Airways is expected to report the second-biggest loss among domestic carriers

Here's The Data:
US Airways Group, Inc Announces Consolidated Traffic Results for the Month and Year to Date Ended March 2011
04/5/2011

US Airways Group, Inc. announced consolidated traffic results for the month and year to date ended March 2011. For the month, the company reported total consolidated revenue passenger miles of 5,295,286,000 compared to 5,081,159,000 for the same period a year ago. Total consolidated available seat miles were 6,390,500,000 compared to 6,150,743,000 in the same period of last year. Total consolidated load factor was 82.9% compared to 82.6% in the same period of last year. Total consolidated enplanements were 5,361,672 compared to 5,127,319 in the same period of last year. For the year to date, the company reported total consolidated revenue passenger miles of 14,093,084,000 compared to 13,509,716,000 for the same period a year ago. Total consolidated available seat miles were 17,807,371,000 compared to 17,286,327,000 in the same period of last year. Total consolidated load factor was 79.1% compared to 78.2% in the same period of last year. Total consolidated enplanements were 14,296,008 compared to 13,655,833 in the same period of last year.
US Airways is expected to report the second-biggest loss among domestic carriers airlines on April 26.

Wall Street forecast the Tempe, Ariz.-based carrier to post a loss of 72 cents a share, versus a loss of 55 cents a share a year ago. Shares of US Airways LCC
+0.37% fell 13% in the quarter to $8.71 and declined an additional 5.2% since.

Shares outstanding: 161.89M

Here's The Analysis:

Let's assume the loss will be 72 cents/share x 161.89 million shares = 116.56 million loss.
From above, total enplanements for the quarter: 14,296,008
Total amount needed to break even: $8.15/passenger enplaned.

Folks, it all boils down to management. The bankruptcies this company went through could have been averted with a ten dollar fare increase, and it looks like history is starting to repeat itself.
Our top notch team in Tempe is paid very well to lead the company through the ups and downs of the economy, producing a return for shareholders and stability for employees.
Eight dollars, fifteen cents to break even. Eight dollars, sixteen cents to make a profit.
Sounds like a bad report card this quarter for team tempe.
 
Hey now....it's that pesky fuel, They have no control over that. Also those pesky labor groups. They don't understand they need to take pay cuts, or remain at salary levels equal to 15+ years ago. It's not their fault........
 
Here is the flip side of the coin when management is talking to Wallstreet: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/03/22/20110322us-airline-costs-rising.html
 
Here is the flip side of the coin when management is talking to Wallstreet: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/03/22/20110322us-airline-costs-rising.html


The boys from Tempe better be right. They have jacked capacity up all across the system and all that is doing to date is increasing the losses.
 
If anyone has been paying attention to the US Daily, average fuel prices last Friday were 101 cents higher than last year. The company has said that each penny increase equals a little over $14 million a year, so a $1 increase would be a $1.4+ billion increase in the fuel cost on an annual basis.

Of course nobody knows what oil (or fuel) prices will do for the rest of the year and that 101 cent increase isn't the average for the 1st quarter, the average would be lower. I guess around the 27th-28th we'll all know how US did, and if Kirby is right about revenue keeping up with fuel price increases, in the 1st quarter.

Jim
 
Of course nobody knows what oil (or fuel) prices will do for the rest of the year and that 101 cent increase isn't the average for the 1st quarter, the average would be lower. I guess around the 27th-28th we'll all know how US did, and if Kirby is right about revenue keeping up with fuel price increases, in the 1st quarter.

Jim
So what does the paychecks management takes home buy the company?
All those fancy college educations and nobody can read the WSJ or watch CNN?
When unrest rears its head in the Middle East, ya think oil will rise?
I'm just saying that Tempe likes to play like they didn't know it was coming.
Those educated boys should know what oil will be 10 YEARS from now.
Its all a CYA act to preserve those paychecks.
This will be the true test for the braintrust in Tempe - no more excuses, time to manage.
 
So what does

I don't disagree, but will say that US doesn't really have the available cash to spend on hedging fuel. That's really why they stopped - betting wrong in late 2008 cost a bunch and they don't want to be caught by that mistake again. All this about "natural hedges" is spin. That "natural hedge" works OK as long as the price of oil/fuel changes gradually over time and US can raise fares/ancillary income to match.

The way US hedged (and (presumably HP before the merger) was the wrong way to hedge. US shot for about 50% of a quarters needed fuel hedged when the quarter started. 6 months before they have little or no hedges in place for that quarter. In short, they hedged short term, which is why they lost a bundle on the hedges when the price of oil collapsed in mid-2008 - the short term strategy meand they had hedges at $120, $130, $140 when the price went to less than $40/bbl.

There are two ways to hedge, and the first is no guarantee. 1 - accept that the price of oil will tend to increase over the long term so hedge long term. WN has some hedges in place 3-4 years out but even they were caught by the price collapse in late 2008, just not as badly as US. 2 - Don't worry about cutting fuel expense by hedging but use hedges to get a known cost for a major item on the expense side of the P&L statement. That's what AS does, again using longer-term hedges. They effectively fix a big chunk of their future cost of fuel using instruments that don't lose money if oil prices drop.

Jim
 
I'll believe it when I see it on April 26th..Wall Street analysts have been wrong many times!
REMEMBER, they predicted the demise of US Airways and here we are...STILL HERE!
 
I'll believe it when I see it on April 26th..Wall Street analysts have been wrong many times!
REMEMBER, they predicted the demise of US Airways and here we are...STILL HERE!
contracts are coming to an end, don't expect the Company to make money. Their not stupid.
 
Folks, it all boils down to management. The bankruptcies this company went through could have been averted with a ten dollar fare increase, and it looks like history is starting to repeat itself.

^I am always amazed how many people that work in this industry that are completely clueless. Stupid management could have raise ticket prices $10 and all would be great!

More likely stupid unions that can never get their act together and close a deal when their are profits! Anyone could have seen that the unions had about a year to get the best deal possible and they as usual blew it.
 
It is apparent you have no idea how negotiations work, its the company who stalls and doesnt negotiate to get an agreement, since you have never been part of negotiations you have no clue.

Under the RLA you can only negotiate when your CBA becomes amendable, or seeking a joint agreement, so answer how the IAM M&R, Fleet and CWA CSA were suppose to negotiate when their CBAs werent amendable under the law?

And calling unions and its members names and insults really shows your true character, or lack of it.
 
Wall Street analysts have been wrong many times!
REMEMBER, they predicted the demise of US Airways and here we are...STILL HERE!

True, but remember the analysts were making those predictions before the merger entered the public realm. After the merger was announced the analysts mostly stopped their negative predictions about US.

Personally, I think the analysts were right. I have absolutely no doubt that US would have been liquidated without the merger.

Jim
 
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