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AA now at....$ 6.4 BILLION CASH..(and s t i ) and Climbing

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(Reuters...7/18...AA-$6.4B cash)

Saving money, for no other reason than just to save it,will always be a wise plan.

But does HDQ have a "somewhat" different agenda ?

NH/BB's
 
$100/bbl oil.

$35 was bad. $40 outrageous. $50 unimagineable. $70 unbearable. $80 inevitable.

It's just a matter of time before oil hits $100 and starts killing off smaller and/or less stable carriers.
 
Increase executive bonus payouts!

That last bonus wasn't out the company's coffers - rather, it came directly from the AMR shareholders.

An SEC S-3 form was filed in August 2006 to issue more shares which was, no doubt, the set-up for the recent bonuses. This "payout" from the shareholders caused the dilution (immediate drop in stock price, approx $7.00/share) after the "payouts". If a person owned 1000 shares of AMR common stock, then that individual's contribution to the (mis)management bonuses was $7000.00 or so. Since the AMR stock had made it to $41/share at one time, the real cost to the shareholder may have been much greater.

No doubt, many of those shares were handed to the institutional investors to prop up the NAV of their mutual funds to reduce the otherwise inevitable selloffs by the real investors (those who invest in those funds through IRAs, 401ks, etc., like our wonderous Super SAAver) and guaranteeing their continued loyalty to the present BOD, keeping them from being replaced.

At the annual shareholder's meetings, Funds typically vote their held shares with the Board's recommendations which are designed to keep the status quo in power.

Some time ago, there was a stink over a bill introduced by Barney Frank to allow fund investors to vote their own shares, taking the voting rights away from the fund managers as is presently the practice. Corporate America raised holy hell over this as it would have really upset their applecart; corporate actions like the AMR bonuses from the stockholders would have been remembered at BOD elections and, no doubt, resulted in a radically different BOD composition, not to mention upper (mis)management.

(Reuters...7/18...AA-$6.4B cash)

Saving money, for no other reason than just to save it, will always be a wise plan.

But does HDQ have a "somewhat" different agenda ?

NH/BB's

I still believe they're looking for something to buy, that is, after they spin off or sell the MRO business, add a few billion to their present cash position and give the workers another hosing with the TWU's blessings, then have another round of executive bonuses, whether it be for a good job or failure - it makes no difference.

NWA, with its route authorities, would be quite a prize. Steenland and minions have screwed NWA up to the point there's no fixing it without a quite radical overhaul.

AMR would, with any purchase, do exactly what they did with TWA (hose the workers, keep the routes, pay out executive bonuses). This would get them a few newer aircraft and allow some S80 retirements without having to wait their turn for Boeing deliveries and have the Riceland routes they want.

I vote for the different, unspoken agenda.
 
$100/bbl oil.

$35 was bad. $40 outrageous. $50 unimagineable. $70 unbearable. $80 inevitable.

It's just a matter of time before oil hits $100 and starts killing off smaller and/or less stable carriers.

Agreed. Will certainly encourage conservation (much better, IMO, than liberals' continuing drive to mandate higher fuel economy autos and light trucks).

Here's some articles discussing that prediction:

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/Business/2007/...350974-sun.html

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/237423

At $75/bbl right now and no signs of letting up.

No doubt AMR is holding onto much of the cash in anticipation of $3/gal jetA. If it pays off debt with the cash, and oil spikes to $100, finding lenders willing to re-lend it might be very difficult.
 
That last bonus wasn't out the company's coffers - rather, it came directly from the AMR shareholders.

An SEC S-3 form was filed in August 2006 to issue more shares which was, no doubt, the set-up for the recent bonuses. This "payout" from the shareholders caused the dilution (immediate drop in stock price, approx $7.00/share) after the "payouts". If a person owned 1000 shares of AMR common stock, then that individual's contribution to the (mis)management bonuses was $7000.00 or so. Since the AMR stock had made it to $41/share at one time, the real cost to the shareholder may have been much greater.

No doubt, many of those shares were handed to the institutional investors to prop up the NAV of their mutual funds to reduce the otherwise inevitable selloffs by the real investors (those who invest in those funds through IRAs, 401ks, etc., like our wonderous Super SAAver) and guaranteeing their continued loyalty to the present BOD, keeping them from being replaced.

At the annual shareholder's meetings, Funds typically vote their held shares with the Board's recommendations which are designed to keep the status quo in power.

Some time ago, there was a stink over a bill introduced by Barney Frank to allow fund investors to vote their own shares, taking the voting rights away from the fund managers as is presently the practice. Corporate America raised holy hell over this as it would have really upset their applecart; corporate actions like the AMR bonuses from the stockholders would have been remembered at BOD elections and, no doubt, resulted in a radically different BOD composition, not to mention upper (mis)management.
I still believe they're looking for something to buy, that is, after they spin off or sell the MRO business, add a few billion to their present cash position and give the workers another hosing with the TWU's blessings, then have another round of executive bonuses, whether it be for a good job or failure - it makes no difference.

NWA, with its route authorities, would be quite a prize. Steenland and minions have screwed NWA up to the point there's no fixing it without a quite radical overhaul.

AMR would, with any purchase, do exactly what they did with TWA (hose the workers, keep the routes, pay out executive bonuses). This would get them a few newer aircraft and allow some S80 retirements without having to wait their turn for Boeing deliveries and have the Riceland routes they want.

I vote for the different, unspoken agenda.
I agree with most of your post except the TWA part. What routes did AA keep except for the very few in STL. AA mainline dumped the routes like STL-OMA, STL-BOI, STL-DEN, STL-PHX, etc. They operate from STL to the largest cities like LAX, SFO, DCA, and LGA but they only have about 50 mainline a day- down from about 300 to 400 after the TWA transaction. AA could have easily have run the current STL operation without the TWA deal using it's own metal.

Your right about NWA and it's prized Pacific routes. However, if AA were to get NW, I don't think there would be many cuts. Domestically, all they really have is MSP and DTW; which are two decent hubs where NW dominates traffic wise. Also, I don't think the NWA unions will make the same mistake the TWA unions did. With AA sitting on $6 billion in cash and NW having a current market cap of $1.89 billion , AA could get NW if it wanted. If an AA/NW combination were to happen, AA would be among the first to get the 787s.
 
While I like the look of a post-bankruptcy acquisition of NWA by AMR, you have to admit that there isn't much left of NWA's unions to put up a fight.

Yes, AA could have moved into STL with their own metal, yet in your analysis of DTW & MSP, you spelled out exactly why AA bought TWA -- TWA owned the customer base, and it was cheaper to pick up the assets and customers than it was to get into a fare war. The fact that nobody (including WN) has been able to challenge AA's position in STL says it all.

Arpey has hinted that if consolidation starts up again, he'd be interested in picking up pieces, but I'd be really surprised if there were another outright acquisition, with perhaps the exception of AS or HA.

With UA's recently announced equity stake in AQ, it wouldn't surprise me to see someone look at taking an ownership interest in HA. Then again, as long as the fare ware with Go! continues, investing anything in the Hawaiian carriers is probably money lost.
 
$100/bbl oil.

$35 was bad. $40 outrageous. $50 unimagineable. $70 unbearable. $80 inevitable.

It's just a matter of time before oil hits $100 and starts killing off smaller and/or less stable carriers.


///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I Agree.

With Oil/Jet-A quickly heading towards $100Brl /$3gal, then no amount of $$ money on hand, would be too much !

NH/BB's
 
I agree with most of your post except the TWA part. What routes did AA keep except for the very few in STL. AA mainline dumped the routes like STL-OMA, STL-BOI, STL-DEN, STL-PHX, etc. They operate from STL to the largest cities like LAX, SFO, DCA, and LGA but they only have about 50 mainline a day- down from about 300 to 400 after the TWA transaction. AA could have easily have run the current STL operation without the TWA deal using it's own metal.

Your right about NWA and it's prized Pacific routes. However, if AA were to get NW, I don't think there would be many cuts. Domestically, all they really have is MSP and DTW; which are two decent hubs where NW dominates traffic wise. Also, I don't think the NWA unions will make the same mistake the TWA unions did. With AA sitting on $6 billion in cash and NW having a current market cap of $1.89 billion , AA could get NW if it wanted. If an AA/NW combination were to happen, AA would be among the first to get the 787s.

Among other odds and ends, I believe AA has an old TWA route authority to Moscow.
 
While I like the look of a post-bankruptcy acquisition of NWA by AMR, you have to admit that there isn't much left of NWA's unions to put up a fight.

Yes, AA could have moved into STL with their own metal, yet in your analysis of DTW & MSP, you spelled out exactly why AA bought TWA -- TWA owned the customer base, and it was cheaper to pick up the assets and customers than it was to get into a fare war. The fact that nobody (including WN) has been able to challenge AA's position in STL says it all.

Arpey has hinted that if consolidation starts up again, he'd be interested in picking up pieces, but I'd be really surprised if there were another outright acquisition, with perhaps the exception of AS or HA.

With UA's recently announced equity stake in AQ, it wouldn't surprise me to see someone look at taking an ownership interest in HA. Then again, as long as the fare ware with Go! continues, investing anything in the Hawaiian carriers is probably money lost.
Your right, TWA had the customer base but couldn't AA have captured that customer base by simply agreeing to fully honor TWA's frequent flier miles after TWA shut down? It certainly would have been a lot cheaper!

Among other odds and ends, I believe AA has an old TWA route authority to Moscow.
AA has it's own route authority to Moscow. They had planned to fly it then decided not to. This was years before the TWA deal.
 

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