Airline Conference & Heavy Bookings

USA320Pilot

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May 18, 2003
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Airline Conference

ARLINGTON (theHub.com) - Yesterday’s JPMorgan 2005 Airline Conference provided a venue for several airline executives to speak on the future of the industry and the roles individual carriers will play in that future. A number of media outlets covered the remarks at the New York conference.

When the perennial topic of consolidation arose, executives weighed in. United Airline’s CEO Glenn Tilton said the industry is carrier heavy and that “there need to be fewer network legacy carriers.†He went on to say that when United emerges from bankruptcy later this year, a merger would not be necessarily in the cards, but would be best for the carrier and the industry overall.

Continental President Jeff Smisek disagreed, saying the elimination of weak carriers, not mergers, will cure the industry’s excess capacity. American Airlines CEO Gerard Arpey said, “It takes a lot of money to successfully integrate two complex, large organizations,†referring to American’s acquisition of Trans World Airlines’ assets in 2001.

Southwest has taken the most recent steps in the consolidation game, with its acquisition of six of ATA’s Chicago Midway gates. But even Southwest felt the pinch of overcapacity in the marketplace, said its CFO Laura Wright. “There’s just a tremendous amount of seats in the market,†which caused Southwest to lower its fares by 5 percent last month as compared to January 2004.

Delta, with its “SimpliFares,†is attempting to keep Southwest at bay. Delta’s CFO Michael Palumbo said his company is competing with Southwest and other low-cost, low-fare carriers on close to 70 percent of its routes.

However, Delta received a share of criticism for reducing its fares and affecting industry revenue. Several executives commented that airline balance sheets would continue to weaken as a result. Said Continental’s Smisek, “Our friends in Atlanta kind of finished off the domestic system for us.â€

Subsequently, some carriers are reducing growth domestically and instead focusing on international routes. The majority of Continental’s expected 5 percent expansion may occur internationally.

Likewise, Northwest’s CEO Doug Steenland said his carrier is “prepared to lower the overall level of flying,†adding, “When people really look at the overall contribution that some of these marginal flights are making, they will come to the same conclusion -- they are better off shrinking a little bit than keeping the same number of shells in the air.â€


Heavy Bookings

ARLINGTON (theHub.com) - Almost 144,000 customers are booked on US Airways mainline today, and another 62,000 are expected to travel with US Airways Express. Adding US Airways Shuttle’s 8,000 customers and MidAtlantic’s 7,000, over 221,000 customers are scheduled to fly us today to begin the President’s Day holiday weekend.

President's Day typically marks the start of peak season to Florida and the Caribbean. And this year, for US Airways, to Latin America.

Today also marks a record day in the number of customers scheduled to travel from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Due to increased seating capacity, Washington today will board close to 15,000 customers. This compares to the more than 12,000 customers who flew during Thanksgiving out of Washington.

In the Charlotte hub, employees will board almost 46,000 customers today. This will result in an 80.9 percent load factor overall for the station, including both US Airways and US Airways Express.

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
Today also marks a record day in the number of customers scheduled to travel from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Due to increased seating capacity, Washington today will board close to 15,000 customers. This compares to the more than 12,000 customers who flew during Thanksgiving out of Washington.
This is EXACTLY what we need to see happen across the system, where we make better use of the assets, gates, and people we already have,

What I have noticed is that the new E-170 DCA routes seem to be a mix of heavy and lighter loads so far, with the weekday flights obviously showing the heavier traffic. IMO the weekend slots might be better used for direct travel to vacation places. Could push the golf weekend theme heavily with some southeastern cities, with E-170 service to Golfing spots like Myrtle, Savannah/Hilton Head, and of course, the new Alabama Golf Trail...

Other weekend promotional ideas for current routes: Rock and Roll weekend, with a CLE weekend to hit the Hall of Fame, or off to Chcago for a weekend shopping trip on Michigan Ave... Just a thought.

Anyways, good news.
 
"Could push the golf weekend theme heavily with some southeastern cities, with E-170 service to Golfing spots like Myrtle, Savannah/Hilton Head, and of course, the new Alabama Golf Trail..."

Rico, could the E170 operate into HHH with their runway constrictions?
 
Standard USA320 dribble.. MSA..

Heavy Bookings.. Yes.. All at the cheap fares US Airways hates..

It is not rocket science when you lower your fares and traffic increases. It is however the ability to make money with the lower revenue.. Something US Airways has been unable to do so far.

As for your comment concerning consolidation.. The Continental CEO is correct.. Elimination of one or more weak carriers will help the rest.. Merging with UAL will solve nothing.. Two wrongs do not make a right.

With US Airways CASM still well above 9 cents and Southwest at 7.5 and jetBlue at 6.8 US Airways still has more cutting to do.

For US Airways to cut 2 cents off of their CASM is going to be pain like USA320 has never seen before..

I wonder if US Airways were to attempt to cut its CASM by 2 cents and it would cost USA320 his job if he would feel so fond of the company? Its ok for everyone else to lose their job so long as he gets to keep his.. If the shoe were on the other foot my personal guess is he would cry like a baby!! MSA..

Back on topic.. Traffic up, revenue down.. US Airways needs a load factor in the high 80's or low 90's to break even and thats being wishful.