AMR trims 2011 capacity increases in wake of fuel price hikes

[Frank Szabo]

So AA will be forced to curtail growth because it can't find any qualified mechanics? That doesn't sound realistic. Not in the least.
... snip

Try this scenario -

American continues hiring anything that says it's a mekanik. Six months after the hiring binge (to comply with the TWU rules, I believe, as to when a new hire can begin voting FOR a piss-poor contract), and soon after "buying" said lovely contract, a massive layoff of everything that was hired (plus some) unless the contract terms were so pitiful, the company can "afford" to keep on unnecessary heads to produce dues for their union, very much like the present situation.

If my memory serves me correctly, the FAA requires only 1 certificated mechanic to oversee the activities of 12 non-certificated mekaniks - please correct me if I'm mistaken but if this is the FAA rule, I see the company and their union moving to grab any savings/dues gain they can by fully embracing the FAA mandated minimums as has already been done in the arena of aircraft maintenance.

FYI - a "qualified mekanik" and a Certificated Aircraft Mechanic are not necessarily the same thing. American and the TWU have a rule that a person can't bid to any job where an A&P Cert is "Required" (union/company issue - not per FAA), but an individual (non-certificated) who is surplused to an area requiring said certificate is the most qualified SOB on the planet for the job (per ongoing company practice).

I look for the TWU/Company to eliminate the certificate requirement in the near future if the company is unable to fill the ranks with certificated mechs. - IF what Bob is saying is correct re the lack of mechanic availability due to the lack of schools to crank them out with common sense taking over & guiding the kids towards other careers in which they aren't treated like dirt.

My time after the military was spent learning my trade (Tool & Diemaker) and it's done the family well for the last 35 years. There are no schools, only the hard way and apprenticeships in the eastern USA - nothing here as employers simply don't give a damn when they can get their needs fills by Chinese prison labor that isn't paid at all. I won't suggest my trade to a newbie either for those very reasons.

Bottom line - this is all about pandering to the dollar. Employment of the citizen and one's country's ability to produce goods are immaterial anymore - THAT, boys and girls, is all that's taught in MBA schools anymore.

[extreme sarcasm]

FYI - a forklift driver told me last night an agreement had been reached re: our contract. It includes full retro pay to to 13 April, 2003, full restoration of ALL benefits forfeited and a $7500 signing bonus (upped to take care of the taxes as is done with the executives). With the exception of executive bonuses (which will be paid at double the previous rates beginning next month), our new contract is scheduled to take effect on 24 December 2012.

Merry Christmas from the Mayans. ​

[/extreme sarcasm]

 

[wcs]

If my memory serves me correctly, the FAA requires only 1 certificated mechanic to oversee the activities of 12 non-certificated mekaniks - please correct me if I'm mistaken

Frank,
I pray you're mistaken.And if you're right, I hope that it doesn't become reality. That scenario, if enacted, would be the beginning of a dangerous downward spiral. I'm not an AMT but my dad was. I remember when union rules required that the mechanics to do pushbacks. I could see the company's point of view in changing that in negotiations. But there is a limit to what "productivity improvements" will really improve for the company.
AMTs are doctors for jets. There's a limit to how "physician's assistants" would actually benefit the total health of an aircraft. Lack of education could lead to a terrible "mis-diagnosis".

 

[Frank Szabo]

Frank,
I pray you're mistaken.And if you're right, I hope that it doesn't become reality. That scenario, if enacted, would be the beginning of a dangerous downward spiral. I'm not an AMT but my dad was. I remember when union rules required that the mechanics to do pushbacks. I could see the company's point of view in changing that in negotiations. But there is a limit to what "productivity improvements" will really improve for the company.
AMTs are doctors for jets. There's a limit to how "physician's assistants" would actually benefit the total health of an aircraft. Lack of education could lead to a terrible "mis-diagnosis".

I hope I'm wrong also, but our darlings in Centrepork, the cpas and bean counters, have danced all around this issue with the TWU for a few years now. All that seems to in the way is a large enough bribe to the only stumbling block remaining and a secretive LOA.

FYI - AMT is a rather broad "classification" at American. My trade is a Toolmaker and I'm classified as an AMT as are the rest of those in the machine trades also but I've got some military training and powerplant experience (outlined in my 'about me' area) that's nowhere close to being up-to-date yet even that little from those years is helpful when I've got an engine in front of me.

Whether you're an "AMT" or whatever makes me no difference - we all have something to do that, when done, helps someone else to do their job. The sooner we quit playing the machinist vs: mechanic and line vs: overhaul games, the sooner we all might get closer to what we want by concentrating on our REAL enemies and not each other.

 

[Bob Owens]

So AA will be forced to curtail growth because it can't find any qualified mechanics? That doesn't sound realistic. Not in the least.

Tell me that when after you start seeing airlines grounding planes due to the fact they are running out of time. Right now the company is trying to get us to produce more and agree to 7 day coverage or they may be forced to outsource the work. To where I dont know because the MROs are being hit the hardest as far as recuiting mechanics. The fact is they can go to 7 day coverage, and simply pay the OT till they get caught up.

So are they lying (as you implied the other day) or is it indeed possible for new-hire A&P ticket-holders to make starting wages of $18/hr to $25/hr (the numbers you scoffed at the other day)? If it's accurate, that is very good news for you. As I've posted for years, it's much better to have a shortage in your chosen line of work than to drown in a market awash in surplus workers.

Exaggerating, $23/hr is only $48000/year.

So you're saying that even with a nationwide shortage of mechanics, you and your fellow TWU negotiators will likely be unable to negotiate a "good" contract on behalf of your members?

I think you know what I'm saying, that the company is being foolish trying to drag things out till they can ram a #### deal down our throats, even without a strike it would mean the end of AA.

And mechanics who didn't bail in 2003 when large concessions were imposed will bail in 2016 (to use you as an example) if they don't see large wage gains? I don't see that happening.

From where you are how would you?
I answered this already but I'll elaborate.
Since 2003 35% of the AA maint work force has left. They've exhausted the recall so none of those are layoffs, they are all permanently separated from the company. Most left between 2003 &2007, so over a four year period they lost approximately 1200 mechanics a year, now they average 500 a year. The A&P schools only produce around 3000 A&Ps a year to satisfy not only the airlines but General aviation, corporate aviation, MROs, and manufacturers. A large number of our older workers are hanging on till this deal is settled, they are waiting for their retro. Good or bad there will likely be a surge of retirements shortly after the contract is settled. After 2003 many of our mechanics who were too young to think about retiring exploited the downtime we get on the line to pursue other endeavors, some went back to school, some started their own businesses, some bid nights and worked a full or part time day job and some invested in their spouses, some did combinations of these, I did the spouse and part time deal for most of that time, many lost interest in airplanes. By now many have seen their second incomes surpass what used to be their primary income-AA. Granted most still, deep down, like working on airplanes, but they are at a point where their time may be better utilized at what used to be their second job or new career, but many are too close to walk away from pensions, flight benifits(on the chance they may be usable again) etc. Over 54% are either old enough to go now or have less than five years to reach that number. Over 54% of us are at the point where we dont want to work two jobs anymore. Our younger workers are more likely to just leave as soon as they find something else, and they have and are continueing to leave, just this week coming off a flight I ran into an ex-mechanic who quit and went into the Port Authority, now he's a cop, he liked working on planes but he has no regrets. AA was successful at destroying his enthusiam for making a living working on airplanes.

Without doing a demographic study my guess is that if we get a good deal we will see around 1500 to 2000 mechanics leave within 12 months, nearly all over the age of 55, if we get a bad deal ramed down our throats the number would probaly be double with most of the increase coming from those under 45 years of age. You would have a mass exodus on both ends of the scale. Guys my age are stuck till 55, but we wont be very enthusiastic and that will likely be reflected as delays and cancellations.

 

[TWU informer]

Someone needs to spend more time getting us a labor agreement and less time debating on internet bulletin boards.

 

[paul1]

If there is to be this great shortage of mech. that some keep talking about. One would think AA would make a move to keep all its qualified mech. from running out the door ( my count down clock has started for bob already) to be hired by ups. Last checked the mro's are not paying airline wages and benefits.

The rumor here in ord, the real hang up on the contract is tulsa, afw, and dwh not wanting to go to 24/7 coverage. I think most when hiring in agreed to work 24/7, holidays, any shift and what ever else it took to get your asses in the the door (by which many are 10x larger from laying around bitching about how bad its here)

Yes I believe we deserve a raise and much more, but untill the negotiating committee can come together, and realize if we want to grow our ranks and keep the work all in house they have some serious soul searching to do.

Word also some line stations are getting tried about hearing about the 24/7 cover , and that it's not even a negotiating point from there view

prediction 2017 bob is still here

 

[Duke787]

Tell me that when after you start seeing airlines grounding planes due to the fact they are running out of time. Right now the company is trying to get us to produce more and agree to 7 day coverage or they may be forced to outsource the work. To where I dont know because the MROs are being hit the hardest as far as recuiting mechanics. The fact is they can go to 7 day coverage, and simply pay the OT till they get caught up.





Exaggerating, $23/hr is only $48000/year.




I think you know what I'm saying, that the company is being foolish trying to drag things out till they can ram a #### deal down our throats, even without a strike it would mean the end of AA.



From where you are how would you?
I answered this already but I'll elaborate.
Since 2003 35% of the AA maint work force has left. They've exhausted the recall so none of those are layoffs, they are all permanently separated from the company. Most left between 2003 &2007, so over a four year period they lost approximately 1200 mechanics a year, now they average 500 a year. The A&P schools only produce around 3000 A&Ps a year to satisfy not only the airlines but General aviation, corporate aviation, MROs, and manufacturers. A large number of our older workers are hanging on till this deal is settled, they are waiting for their retro. Good or bad there will likely be a surge of retirements shortly after the contract is settled. After 2003 many of our mechanics who were too young to think about retiring exploited the downtime we get on the line to pursue other endeavors, some went back to school, some started their own businesses, some bid nights and worked a full or part time day job and some invested in their spouses, some did combinations of these, I did the spouse and part time deal for most of that time, many lost interest in airplanes. By now many have seen their second incomes surpass what used to be their primary income-AA. Granted most still, deep down, like working on airplanes, but they are at a point where their time may be better utilized at what used to be their second job or new career, but many are too close to walk away from pensions, flight benifits(on the chance they may be usable again) etc. Over 54% are either old enough to go now or have less than five years to reach that number. Over 54% of us are at the point where we dont want to work two jobs anymore. Our younger workers are more likely to just leave as soon as they find something else, and they have and are continueing to leave, just this week coming off a flight I ran into an ex-mechanic who quit and went into the Port Authority, now he's a cop, he liked working on planes but he has no regrets. AA was successful at destroying his enthusiam for making a living working on airplanes.

Without doing a demographic study my guess is that if we get a good deal we will see around 1500 to 2000 mechanics leave within 12 months, nearly all over the age of 55, if we get a bad deal ramed down our throats the number would probaly be double with most of the increase coming from those under 45 years of age. You would have a mass exodus on both ends of the scale. Guys my age are stuck till 55, but we wont be very enthusiastic and that will likely be reflected as delays and cancellations.

AA and all the other airlines went on a hiring spree from the late 80s to about 2003. What makes you think the nation can't train mechanically inclined people to be A&P mechanics. In the 90s AA opened up an A&P academy at Midway airport in Chicago and produced their own mechanics. If such a shortage happened again what makes you think the airlines wouldn't be proactive again. I think the theory of a mechanic shortage is a bit over stated based on the system seniority list (I don't want to give the numbers I'm not sure if that is proprietary info).

I don't understand why a mech would continue to work at AA if he had a better job someplace else. If working OT at $45 an hour doesn't match what you make at a second job, then you should be at that second job full time. Try and hold back on the............ "Guys my age are stuck till 55, but we wont be very enthusiastic and that will likely be reflected as delays and cancellations."...............that's the kind of attitude that gives unions a bad name.

I will lay odds that 1500 mechs will NOT retire within a year.