An OLD, yet NEW prediction !

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

All of us 'old timers' here on this forum, have bantered 'this' around for DECADES, and I'm getting unknown vibes again about AA and Alaska/SEA.

From what I'm reading, these are Facts. Alaska is carrying TOO much debt. They've got a growing problem with Horizon, and are in a DEATH struggle with DEL - DUH which equates to the all important ultra valuable US gateway of SEA.
We've got to correctly figure that AA (more than DEL - DUH) are watching Alaska 'going on's' LIKE a H A W K ! I KNOW, I KNOW, we've discussed this Ad Nauseam, but, AA, I doubt seriously, would let DEL - DUH obtain a SINGLE root from a 'potential' wounded bird.
I Know/Think that the Feds would not allow a (hypothetical) complete takeover of Alaska by ANY of the remaining US airlines, BUT, a (hypothetical) carve-up by AA/DL and a lesser degree UAL and possibly Hawaiian, is NOT out of the realm of possibility !

Thoughts ??

 

[eolesen]

Nice try. The T100 data for SEA tells a much different story. In non-DL Hub markets where DL and AS compete, AS still has a 5-10% load factor advantage. There are even a few markets where DL pulls only 50-70% where AS is in the 80% range.

I know LFs don't equal profitability, but DL ISN'T winning. They're still a few steps behind, and compete mainly on price.

The value of SEA to DL has always been about feeding flights to HKG/PVG/ICN/TPE and to a lesser degree AMS, CDG, and LHR.

Heck, their average LF for LHR in 2016 was 62%.

When you look at point to point markets like Mexico and Hawaii, AS is still winning or holding even.

Source:DOT T100                  
June 2016 to May 2017                  

                LF                   LF      Seats    
                DL        AS         Var     DL        AS
SEA     ANC     84.7%     84.8%       0%     223863     876925
SEA     ATL     91.9%     83.7%       8%     467318     119743
SEA     BOS     85.3%     91.4%     - 6%     53754      158983
SEA     DEN     76.3%     88.3%     -12%     31414      285547
SEA     DTW     92.2%     82.0%      10%     330537     76073
SEA     FAI     84.0%     84.5%       0%     31474      235180
SEA     FLL     89.6%     93.1%     - 3%     4956       67231
SEA     HNL     92.2%     93.3%     - 1%     119780     121448
SEA     JFK     92.5%     92.7%       0%     249223     65028
SEA     JNU     76.0%     80.3%     - 4%     16795      168586
SEA     KOA     87.6%     87.7%       0%     60145      107949
SEA     LAS     82.6%     83.7%     - 1%     154294     554648
SEA     LAX     87.2%     87.3%       0%     370930     791179
SEA     MCO     79.3%     89.9%     -11%     43358      104866
SEA     MSP     89.3%     87.2%       2%     427538     129267
SEA     OGG     92.3%     88.5%       4%     68855      100966
SEA     PDX     65.9%     64.2%       2%     63363      77399
SEA     PHX     80.8%     86.8%     - 6%     10783      340886
SEA     PVR     86.7%     90.8%     - 4%     4640       22875
SEA     SAN     81.5%     89.2%     - 8%     26052      403072
SEA     SFO     67.3%     82.4%     -15%     32864      480759
SEA     SJC     61.7%     84.9%     -23%     3033       416425
SEA     SJD     73.0%     84.0%     -11%     4637       25359
SEA     SLC     81.9%     68.7%      13%     398643     178620

 

[jimntx]

As has been noted before, there is a strong loyalty feeling toward Alaska as the "hometown" airline. That's not something you can buy. Alaska earned it by being the airline they are.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Nice try. The T100 data for SEA tells a much different story. In non-DL Hub markets where DL and AS compete, AS still has a 5-10% load factor advantage. There are even a few markets where DL pulls only 50-70% where AS is in the 80% range.

I know LFs don't equal profitability, but DL ISN'T winning. They're still a few steps behind, and compete mainly on price.

The value of SEA to DL has always been about feeding flights to HKG/PVG/ICN/TPE and to a lesser degree AMS, CDG, and LHR.

Heck, their average LF for LHR in 2016 was 62%.

When you look at point to point markets like Mexico and Hawaii, AS is still winning or holding even.

Source:DOT T100                 
June 2016 to May 2017                 

                LF                   LF      Seats   
                DL        AS         Var     DL        AS
SEA     ANC     84.7%     84.8%       0%     223863     876925
SEA     ATL     91.9%     83.7%       8%     467318     119743
SEA     BOS     85.3%     91.4%     - 6%     53754      158983
SEA     DEN     76.3%     88.3%     -12%     31414      285547
SEA     DTW     92.2%     82.0%      10%     330537     76073
SEA     FAI     84.0%     84.5%       0%     31474      235180
SEA     FLL     89.6%     93.1%     - 3%     4956       67231
SEA     HNL     92.2%     93.3%     - 1%     119780     121448
SEA     JFK     92.5%     92.7%       0%     249223     65028
SEA     JNU     76.0%     80.3%     - 4%     16795      168586
SEA     KOA     87.6%     87.7%       0%     60145      107949
SEA     LAS     82.6%     83.7%     - 1%     154294     554648
SEA     LAX     87.2%     87.3%       0%     370930     791179
SEA     MCO     79.3%     89.9%     -11%     43358      104866
SEA     MSP     89.3%     87.2%       2%     427538     129267
SEA     OGG     92.3%     88.5%       4%     68855      100966
SEA     PDX     65.9%     64.2%       2%     63363      77399
SEA     PHX     80.8%     86.8%     - 6%     10783      340886
SEA     PVR     86.7%     90.8%     - 4%     4640       22875
SEA     SAN     81.5%     89.2%     - 8%     26052      403072
SEA     SFO     67.3%     82.4%     -15%     32864      480759
SEA     SJC     61.7%     84.9%     -23%     3033       416425
SEA     SJD     73.0%     84.0%     -11%     4637       25359
SEA     SLC     81.9%     68.7%      13%     398643     178620

Nice 'stats' Eric, Thank You !!

 

[eolesen]

Nice 'stats' Eric, Thank You !!

You're welcome. This data is all public, so it's not a benefit from my being back behind bars on the inside of the industry....

 

[jimntx]

A friend who works for AS in Seattle told me that Delta is sending out (in some cases) empty or almost empty airplanes so that they can bump up the "seats available" on a particular route--usually ones that AS dominates despite Delta's efforts to pull passengers over to their side of the street.