Dec numbers look good

swamt

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Oct 23, 2010
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Pretty good start for 14.  Hope it will continue thru and beyond.  I really can't remember the last time I saw the stock in the 20's and stayed.  All the monthly numbers look good for Dec.  All airlines are up and gaining with all their numbers as well.  Not complaining about it, but, yes there's a but,  I would have thought our numbers would have started to gain faster and larger by now.  This, to me should be the norm across the industry, with the AT purchase, I would have thought our numbers would be larger.  They say full synergies from the AT purchase will be realized by end of 14, W/A is gone by Oct 14 but sales for tickets will be sold sooner, and international (some) will be started and continue to be added thru-out 2015 and beyond.  Just hoping this is the lift we've needed for some time now.  I would like to see the numbers we use to see in the late 90's again.   Just pointing out a good start to 14, and hope it continues, no where to go but up from here...  Happy New Year to all of you and yours.
 
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swamt said:
Pretty good start for 14.  Hope it will continue thru and beyond.  I really can't remember the last time I saw the stock in the 20's and stayed.  All the monthly numbers look good for Dec.  All airlines are up and gaining with all their numbers as well.  Not complaining about it, but, yes there's a but,  I would have thought our numbers would have started to gain faster and larger by now.  This, to me should be the norm across the industry, with the AT purchase, I would have thought our numbers would be larger.  They say full synergies from the AT purchase will be realized by end of 14, W/A is gone by Oct 14 but sales for tickets will be sold sooner, and international (some) will be started and continue to be added thru-out 2015 and beyond.  Just hoping this is the lift we've needed for some time now.  I would like to see the numbers we use to see in the late 90's again.   Just pointing out a good start to 14, and hope it continues, no where to go but up from here...  Happy New Year to all of you and yours.
About the part I bolded:   apologies if you already know this, but advance ticket sales don't affect the PRASM numbers until the flight departs.   WN could sell out all of the October DAL-Beyond WA Perimeter flights tomorrow for full-BS-fares, and because of the accrual method of accounting, those tickets don't become revenue until October 14.    Advance ticket sales add to the balance sheet cash (asset) but are offset by a matching entry on the liabilities side usually labeled "Air Traffic Liability."    When the flight departs or the ticket expires worthless, then and only then will WN be allowed to recognize that fare as revenue.    
 
That said, it looks like WN had a slightly better December than DL, AA/US or UAL.    Of course, for most airlines, the huge bump in traffic and PRASM was related in part to the second half of Thanksgiving weekend and its associated return travel falling in December instead of November like it usually does.   I think it was Doug Parker who noted recently that the return home from Thanksgiving weekend are the biggest revenue days of the year.   
 
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It would be interesting how much traffic WN picked up because of the extended closure/reduced ops at DFW in the first half of Dec.

The THX weekend has long been known as the biggest and most concentrated weekend for all forms of transport.
 
FWAAA,  I knew some but not all that you posted, and thx for the info.  I do realize the sales will not be counted until flights are assumed.  I was mainly just pointing out that overall, 2014 should be a pretty darn good kick start for us (SWA), as the entire industry has been idle for some time now.  Also noting, as you did, that SWA was a double if not triple increase in % from past reports for some time.   I think this is a starting point for a strong next 10 years.   Hope it is positive for all of us, company and employees...
 
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WN's numbers were eventually going to improve. Like every merger, WN had to go thru a phase of reshaping the combined operation into the mold they intended in order to get the best results. WN underperformed the industry on RASM growth for a period after the merger so it is easier to beat the industry when things start kicking.

Overall, the industry is much stronger because of consolidation, even if the DOJ doesn't want to hear it.

2014 will be a great year for WN with the fall of the WA, int'l growth, and expansion at DCA and LGA. WN has very strategically figured out what they have to do to be prepared for each of those opportunities.
 
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