NYCDelta
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Wasn't the plan supposed to be presented this week? Or was it next week? The rumor mill is already churning again. I've heard Comair will be gone soon; if not sold off, then closed down.
DL Reorganization Plan
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wings396
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Sold possibly, shut down, no way. Just think of how much flying they cover on the DL route system. I can't even count how many mainline stations were lost in favor of Comair and their armada of RJ's. Take CVG for example, if Comair were shut down there would be very little left. Comair and many others like them were the perfect tool for airlines to eliminate decent paying jobs by replacing them with Express flights and wages. As much as I would love to see all of these jobs return to mainline, I doubt that they ever will.
NYCDelta
Senior
You're absolutely right. What I heard was Comair's flying would be replaced by another regional carrier, due to Comair's increasing reliability problems.
deltaflyboy
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comair has already lost some of their 70 seat RJ flying to Skywest, that transition begins in February and they stand to loose quite a few of their 40/50 seaters as well, that announcement is scheduled to be made by the end of December
LGA Fleet Service
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eolesen
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Don't forget about ExpressJet. They're losing a bunch of flying as CO Express, and opted to keep the related aircraft instead of turning them back to CO.
So, with all of the independent lift available at Mesa, Skywest, ASA (now owned by Skywest), Air Wisconsin, ExpressJet, & Republic/Chautauqua, I share the opinion that Comair is probably going to be given a rather unfortunate haircut as far as DL is concerned.
Never say never as far as the airline industry goes...
So, with all of the independent lift available at Mesa, Skywest, ASA (now owned by Skywest), Air Wisconsin, ExpressJet, & Republic/Chautauqua, I share the opinion that Comair is probably going to be given a rather unfortunate haircut as far as DL is concerned.
Never say never as far as the airline industry goes...
wings396
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Bringing all of those operators into the picture won't be of any major benefit. They all run the same type of 1/2 Azzed operation, just under different names. Now you will have 3-4 headaches to deal with instead of 1.
LGA Fleet Service
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Gilding the Lily
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Under DL's plan, it will have 7.7b in secured debt, 558m due from Municipal bonds, and 875m in unsecured debt. This is above and beyond the treatment of the claims.
WorldTraveler
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Delta has 3 presentations on its website at
http://www.delta.com/about_delta/corporate...tions/index.jsp
that I would suggest anyone that cares anything about the discussion review – even if you don’t agree. I have yet to see anything remotely comparable addressing the same issues from US – because they can’t address them without telling lies. You can’t make DL/US look good for anyone except US’ owners.
As for valuations, yes, everyone is biased in some way or the other; the question is whether the bias is too great for the person to be factual. Let me encourage you to listen to the antitrust webcast at the above link. Who was the very first person to yell out a question and try to tell the expert (who had decades of experience in the DOJ) that he didn’t know what he was talking about? None other than Gary Chase. In fact, every one of the industry analysts tried to downplay the competitive concerns by manipulating the facts or believing that the industry has changed to the point that eliminating a competitor is no longer such a bad thing.
So why can’t supposed industry analysts honestly evaluate anything? Because they and their employers make money on deals in the airline industry and don’t when airlines remain independent. They desperate want to sell their “expertise†despite its obvious bias which is towards consolidation in the industry.
As I said in my discussion regarding the role of mergers in the industry, they will have to come either when one carrier is failing or when there are not significant impacts to consumers in the form of reduced capacity. Since every network airline has some overlap with every other carrier – if even on a regional basis – it is impossible to merge any two US network carriers without resulting in the loss of service. There is absolutely no appetite in Washington for the American people to pay that kind of price for an industry that is as stable now as it ever gets – and one in which the network carriers are on the best financial footing they’ve been on in decades.
http://www.delta.com/about_delta/corporate...tions/index.jsp
that I would suggest anyone that cares anything about the discussion review – even if you don’t agree. I have yet to see anything remotely comparable addressing the same issues from US – because they can’t address them without telling lies. You can’t make DL/US look good for anyone except US’ owners.
As for valuations, yes, everyone is biased in some way or the other; the question is whether the bias is too great for the person to be factual. Let me encourage you to listen to the antitrust webcast at the above link. Who was the very first person to yell out a question and try to tell the expert (who had decades of experience in the DOJ) that he didn’t know what he was talking about? None other than Gary Chase. In fact, every one of the industry analysts tried to downplay the competitive concerns by manipulating the facts or believing that the industry has changed to the point that eliminating a competitor is no longer such a bad thing.
So why can’t supposed industry analysts honestly evaluate anything? Because they and their employers make money on deals in the airline industry and don’t when airlines remain independent. They desperate want to sell their “expertise†despite its obvious bias which is towards consolidation in the industry.
As I said in my discussion regarding the role of mergers in the industry, they will have to come either when one carrier is failing or when there are not significant impacts to consumers in the form of reduced capacity. Since every network airline has some overlap with every other carrier – if even on a regional basis – it is impossible to merge any two US network carriers without resulting in the loss of service. There is absolutely no appetite in Washington for the American people to pay that kind of price for an industry that is as stable now as it ever gets – and one in which the network carriers are on the best financial footing they’ve been on in decades.
World,
DAL doesn't seem to have overcome a major issue that you seem to discount. Their entire repayment plan is based on an equity stake. While they've reserved the option to make a cash payout, what are the chances that 1/2 of it would be cash? That is the current offer by US. Given that US has said it will consider upping its offer, DL may still be in some trouble. If US comes back with an offer of $9.5B with $4B still in cash (~42% in cash), that would make a very compelling cash to vote that way. It's certainly more sure than hoping DL comes out of the gates and rises. If US does nothing else but extend DL's time in court (and thus costs), they do succeed to some degree. That may be the entire reason for the bid...drive up DL's ch 11 costs just to hit their cash position...
DAL doesn't seem to have overcome a major issue that you seem to discount. Their entire repayment plan is based on an equity stake. While they've reserved the option to make a cash payout, what are the chances that 1/2 of it would be cash? That is the current offer by US. Given that US has said it will consider upping its offer, DL may still be in some trouble. If US comes back with an offer of $9.5B with $4B still in cash (~42% in cash), that would make a very compelling cash to vote that way. It's certainly more sure than hoping DL comes out of the gates and rises. If US does nothing else but extend DL's time in court (and thus costs), they do succeed to some degree. That may be the entire reason for the bid...drive up DL's ch 11 costs just to hit their cash position...
757inthebarrel
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There wouldn't have to be any cash and the creditors would still get a better deal with the DL plan. The US plan requires regulatory approval before any creditor receives cash. This could easily take a year or more. With the DL plan the creditors would receive payout in a few months. That makes a huge difference in this volatile industry.
Yep, there's nothing like having a bunch of stock, in volatile times, in a voliatile industry, especially with an unknown future managment team, with unknown energy prices per barrel, to sway one away from, a 1/2 or better cash offer...
Sorry Folks,
1.
2.
3.
4.
frag
men
ta
tion...
Good luck to all concerned.
NYCDelta
Senior
What will it take for people to see this merger is not in the best interest for either company? Based simply on fleet disparity and overlapping hub locations, anyone can see this merger is the worst idea of practically ANY airline combination.
UAL & US=good
UAL & DL=good
UAL & CO=good
NWA & US=good
NWA & DL=good
NWA & AA=good
US & DL=BAD; VERY, VERY BAD.
Even if you take 1/2 of what Doug Parker states as the truth, and 1/2 of what Jerry Grinstein states as the truth; this merger is STILL BAD.
Not to mention the fact that if it does go through, others probably will too, and we'll be the weakest of all the majors. Just doesn't make sense.
And, enough already with the fragmentation. Anyone who knows anything about the airline industry knows this is not EASTERN, with all their union problems, and we're not Pan Am, who had no domestic feed for their passenger-hungry 747's. If USAir and CO can pull off 2 BK's, then I'm sure we'll make it through one.
