DL to suspend SEA-HND Flights

[commavia]

Oh boy ... this is going to lead to quite the diatribe:
 
"In light of Delta’s extensive winter-season Seattle-Haneda service cutbacks, the submissions of American and Hawaiian and the responses thereto, the Department believes that the public interest requires a fresh examination of whether the best use of the Seattle-Haneda opportunity is to allow Delta to retain the slot pair for Seattle-Haneda service, or whether the public interest would be better served by reallocating the slot pair for service from another U.S. city by another U.S. carrier or by Delta."
 
So it appears at least someone within the DoT thinks there may be something to AA's argument that Delta's selective, sub-seasonal operation of SEA-HND may not be as valuable to the public interest as competing proposals from competitors.  Wow.

 

[FWAAA]

Ruh-Roh.

The DOT simply fails to grasp the right of an airline to squat on scarce resources like HND frequencies, of which USA-based carriers have but 28 per week.

 

[robbedagain]

Holy Crap commavia   now you really did it   WT gonna need either mental health evaluation or he may have to send the DOT to mental health eval      Now we're gonna hear 1+ billion crap of how they cannot do this to DL bec DL can do no wrong     he may just need heaviest dose of medicine yet esp if they rule against dl

 

[commavia]

The DOT simply fails to grasp

 
Classic.

 

[WorldTraveler]

you two seem mighty pleased with yourselves.

It doesn't change that you two have been completely wrong on DL's network to Japan.

And it also doesn't change that DL, will be the one that is wrong and potentially stands to lose if the route is stripped.

let's play this out, though.

first, AA and JL are the ones who screwed up by launching a route from SFO at which they now have to compete with UA. AA applies for JFK which was by far the biggest money losing route any US carrier has ever operated across the Pacific.

DL loses the SEA route to AA - and DL will argue loudly regarding AA's leaving the JFK-HND route .
DL just upgrades LAX-HND to a 330, AA drops LAX-NRT, and DL's profitability on LAX-NRT improves while LAX-HND becomes the same money losing route for AA that the rest of its LAX operation is now.

AA isn't gaining anything.

Their Pacific strategy is flawed by thinking they can compete from LAX and DFW which is far out of the way for most of the US.

and DL could very well now have an aircraft to launch DFW-LHR.

btw, commavia,
I guess it was your alter ego that stole your password and wrote
So it appears Delta actually faces the real prospect of losing the authority. I must admit - I never actually thought this would get this far. Wow.

 

[commavia]

Hahaha - hysterical diversion from what this discussion is ostensibly about.  Back in reality, many of us predicted - years ago - that Delta's Japan network would get smaller and weaker as Delta steadily lost its competitiveness in the market.  We were correct - and Delta has said it itself (to those who will listen).
 
Nonetheless, back to the actual topic - contrary to the (typical) sanctimonious certitude, the DoT bought AA's argument that Delta's selective, subseasonal schedule on SEA-HND may not be in the public interest, and warranted further review.  And contrary to the obnoxious, arrogant lecturing, the DoT does - indeed - have every right and authority to do that.  Ouch.

 

[WorldTraveler]

let's just get one thing straight first.

it is ok, not a diversion, for you to have believed that it wouldn't be likely that the DOT would have ruled the way they did but not for me to believe that?

I am pro-markets... I have repeatedly said that. I believe it is in the best interest of the US for frequencies to be fully used. But it is far from clear that DL will lose the route. or that DL won't appeal

and it is not a diversion to realize that, even if AA succeeds at winning the frequency to use at LAX that DL will simply increase capacity on LAX-HND and AA will likely drop LAX-NRT.

and in case you missed it, currencies in the developing world around the world took an ENORMOUS hit overnight with the increase in interest rates by Russia.

AA will be fighting an increasingly difficult battle for revenues in Latin America. Their bandwidth to sustain all of this new Asian growth will run out.

AA's route network more than either DL or UA is built around currencies that are wildly and rapidly being devaluated which has enormous implications for AA's revenues.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

let's play this out, though.
... ... ...
AA isn't gaining anything.
 
and DL could very well now have an aircraft to launch DFW-LHR.
 

 
Wow, you certainly do write great works of fiction.  The only thing missing from this masterpiece was fraudulent numbers/data.
 
 

and in case you missed it, currencies in the developing world around the world took an ENORMOUS hit overnight with the increase in interest rates by Russia.

AA will be fighting an increasingly difficult battle for revenues in Latin America. Their bandwidth to sustain all of this new Asian growth will run out.
 

 
Nice deflection (to currency devaluation and LatAm and AA - on the DL board!). 

 
 
As has been pointed out to you before, no analyst except for you is making a big deal (or even any comments)  about AA's money in Venezuela.  Ofcourse you can keep on insisting that they're stupid and fail to grasp the issues like you do ... ... ...
 
BTW:  speaking of devaluing currencies and developing countries, doesn't DL serve more 3rd world countries than either AA or UA?

 

[commavia]

Wow, you certainly do write great works of fiction.

Okay, good - I was wondering if I was reading that little bit of hilarity correctly.  Delta adding DFW-LHR?  I thought Delta was in the business of making money?
 
That's just as laughable as saying that AA adding LAX-Asia will cost AA its leadership in MIA-Latin America, or that Delta will dump capacity to bankrupt JAL, or ... apparently ... that the DoT can't and won't entertain competing proposals for Delta's SEA-HND authority.
 
The detachment from reality continues.
 

As has been pointed out to you before, no analyst except for you is making a big deal (or even any comments)  about AA's money in Venezuela.  Ofcourse you can keep on insisting that they're stupid and fail to grasp the issues like you do ... ... ...

Nah, we all know who around here "speaks the language of WS investors."  🙄
 
Meanwhile, courtesy of Aviation Week (emphasis mine):
 

"The investment in Seattle comes as Delta continues to draw down its Tokyo Narita hub, as demand slows and the Japanese yen loses value against the U.S. dollar. 'We’ve been able to maintain the profitability of our Narita hub, which is an incredible feat,' Hauenstein said. Next year, Delta will serve only five intra-Asia routes, down from 12 in 2009, as part of a plan to improve Pacific margins by five to 10 points over the next three years. 
 
'While we do have a nice hedge book against the yen, we realized that’s temporary, and we needed to make structural changes ... to adjust to a weaker yen for the future,' Delta President Ed Bastian said."

 
What was that again about us all being wrong about Delta's NRT hub, and about all of the disastrous forex risk that AA faces?

 

[eolesen]

I guess this means DOT realizes that there's a difference between following the letter of the law, and the intent of the law, eh?....

WT, just man up and accept that you overestimated where this would head. Right now, you just look like a sore loser.

 

[jcw]

WT,

You stated the following on the AA board (we realize you post so much you can't remember all the fantasy posts - when you make stuff up its hard to remember all the statements made):

"careful there.... the whole US legal system is built on precedent. if someone decides to start throwing the whole thing out the window and start from scratch with the way someone else wants, then stuff like the slot divestiture and DAL gate rules could just as easily go out the window.

You don't really want to go there. I can assure you. DL has far more to gain from others than to lose.

And DL will keep the SEA HND route just active and if the DOT says that what DL is doing isn't sufficient, they will order DL to operate it or lose it.

They can't and won't just take it.

This will be AA's 3rd failure to get a route from LAX to HND. "

So let's see you ready to admit you are wrong and the DOT is going to relook at the route.

 

[eolesen]

To be entirely fair, in WT's "it's time to split hairs to save face" point of view, DOT hasn't taken the route authority away yet.

They're just telling DL they now have to re-interview for their existing job, so to speak...


More importantly, DOT makes it clear they have the right to order the review and reallocate authorities at their own discretion. That's a point I'd made several times over the past couple months, to which WT most recently responded:
 

clearly AA and HA want to think the DOT has more power than just to yank a route after a 90 day dormancy.
...snip...
And the worst thing that the DOT could do is order DL to restart the service or lose it. The chances of them taking the award without issuing an order to restart the service is about as high as Pelosi winning the Ms. America contest.

 
 

It might be nice to force DL to use the slots it petitioned for, but the DOT can't all of a sudden decide to enforce rules for DL that it hasn't enforced elsewhere.

and even if they did act, it would be to order DL to restart it or lose it... meaning DL is taking the bet that they can keep the flight on a seasonal basis until things improve as much as AA and HA are taking the risk they can force the DOT to act - but knowing full well that probably won't happen.

 
 

the DOT is not going to revoke DL's authority unless at the very least it orders DL to restart the service or lose it.

I'd say that having to re-justify the business case for a route authority is a far worse consequence than being told to use it or lose it.
You'll note in the actual order, nowhere does it back up WT's assertion they'd simply be ordered to restart service was patently, undeniably, un-hair-splittably, wrong.

Man up, WT. And I really, really hope we don't see Nancy Pelosi suddenly winning any beauty contests...

 

[WorldTraveler]

let us know when first DL gains the slot, second AA and not someone else wins it, and 3 when AA actually makes money using it.

let's be very clear that commavia said he didn't expect the process to go to this point.

Neither did I.

Whether DL did or not, they aren't willing to lose money sustaining a route that isn't viable.

This route won't make or break anything for DL.

I do agree that national airspace assets should be used - I've said that - but I also do not see any evidence that AA can do anything any better than what DL has done.

commavia clearly holds some deep-seated grudge about AA winning JL but end up losing in the marketplace. Because that is exactly what has happened. You can't shrink your network by 25% and still lose money and call it AAnything but failure - and that is exactly what AA has done.

DL has been profitable and has not lost market share - and there is nothing in what you posted that counters that.

Nothing.

you want DL to perform as poorly in Asia as AA has.

won't happen.. is not happening.

the only detachment from reality is for you to think that AA will ever amount to anything in Japan.

they will not.

 

[MAH4546]

Japanese carriers are not locked into routes. AA/JL can do whatever the hell they want with JAL's pair of Haneda slots; and, in fact, pending winning LAXHND, they do plan to shuffle around their Narita/Haneda-U.S. services for next spring (2016), including JAL's entry into DFW. 
 
JAL flies SFOHND because it works for it; it can move that slot to anything else overnight. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, I know.

but it was still a strategic blunder for JL to have bid into SFO. and your plans further confirm that JL could have moved its route to LAX if they wanted to hold onto it.

And it is very doubtful that JL will do well against UA's new route.

and further, the HND slots won't work east of the west coast. To think they will work at DFW is foolish.

but since AA is willing to burn money flying to Asia, why not one more route, right?