PHX Flyer said:
You are forgetting the freight carriers. Both UPS and Fedex have huge hub operations in Europe. When their European competitor DHL tried to establish the same here in the US - by taking over Airborne, they faced all sorts of hurdles thrown in their way by an unholy alliance of UPS, Fedex, and politicians who love to praise free trade on every occasion except for when it comes to opening up their own home turf. I am not even sure if the foreign ownership issues surrounding the construct of ABX Airlines are resolved at this time, or if it's still pending before an appeals court somewhere.
Another issue is the claim of European airlines that US carriers "subsidize" their transatlantic flights with revenues from their domestic operations, which allows them to undercut their European competitors' fares. For all major European airlines, the North Atlantic market is by far the biggest revenue generator, whereas all US airlines rely first and foremost on the domestic market (case in point: those who did not have a sufficient domestic network as a backbone, are not around anymore). I am not sure if this claim actually holds water, especially nowadays in light of the increasing competion from low-cost airlines here in the US.
On the other hand, I cannot think of a single reason, why we should not allow European airlines to compete here, if they feel they are up to it. As long as these rights are reciprocated in the EU, I have no qualms about it at all. Actually, I think that both US and EU carriers would be better off, if they merged into global corporations with equal access to all pertinent markets. This would create a level playing field for everybody.
I agree with you that the future will not be how many airlines are going to survive. It is going to be how many Alliances are ther going to be.
Just take for example the auto industry. We drive Ford, Volvo, Jaguar, Chrysler, Buick, Pontiac etc, but what company is the owner of what brand?
Ford = Ford, Volvo, Jaguar and more
GM = Chevy, Ponitiac, Buick, Opel, Vauxhaul and more
Daimler = Mercedes, Chrysler, Jeep, etc.
VW = VW, Porshe, Audi, Rolls Royce and more
BMW = BMW, Bentley, Leyland...
The only reason why Star has not evolved into something like that is the ownership rules. DLH is subsedising UA more than a lot of people know about and even dare to talk about. Star is more than just a Frequent Flier Program. Star can become that first major Airline Group. So in the future I can see three major airline groups and some local LCC's. And once a group is formed, they will use the names they have like car manufacturers are doing it now. (A Mustang and a Cougar are the same car just with a different logo on it). So flying UA or flying LH might one day be the same.
And you are correct, we always think about PAX carriers but never talk about Cargo.
Everything is all a matter of time. And at the end it does not matter who flies, all that matters is how many jobs will be created.