funguy2 said:
I have still not seen anywhere where UAL has said it rejecting some of Air Wisconsin's aircraft.
This article states "Air Wisconsin Corp. is losing some of its United Express routes to rival carriers under new agreements announced Monday by United Airlines."
It's not said explicitly in the press release that UAL is rejecting aircraft operated by AWAC, but the following statements are in there:
The agreements announced today are a result of the request for proposal that United announced last November. Of these 30 aircraft, SkyWest will operate 20 and GoJet will operate ten 70-seat Bombardier CRJ-700 aircraft under the United Express brand. The first aircraft, operated by GoJet, will begin flying in August on routes to be announced at a later date.
These 30 aircraft will fly on some routes previously operated for United by Air Wisconsin Airlines. As the company indicated in an announcement to employees late last month, United also is considering reductions in the United Express fleet to further reduce spending on U.S. domestic capacity, given high fuel prices and the current fare levels.
The two messages taken together -- that these 30 jets will be replacing Air Wisconsin on certain routes and that United may reduce the United Express fleet -- mean that it is highly likely that United will reject a substantial portion of the Air Wisconsin flying, if not all of it.
However it does not state that "UAL has rejected 20 of the 70 Regional Jets operated by Air Wisconsin". I am still waiting to see that article. Is it happening? Maybe. Probably, even. But thus far, that isn't public information, its conjecture. Its completely feasible that UAL is ordering 70-seat RJs from GoJet and SkyWest to upgrade routes that are doing well, and will use Air Wisc 50-seaters on new routes. Its unlikely given what we know, but still feasible.
Well, given that United has stated an intent to reduce its domestic Express flying, and that they don't have a hub like IAH to do the mExpressJet thing, chances are that ZW is going to be where they choose to cut domestic capacity (modulo how Shuttle America and Mesa are doing with respect to performance guarantees). 30 66-seaters works out to the equivalent of 40 50-seaters, and cutting capacity equivalent to another 30 CRJ's would probably equate to a roughly 10% reduction in United Express flying. Actually, it would not surprise me if the agreement with Trans States/GoJets included a commitment to absorb the flying they perform for US Airways if they are kicked out of the US Express family; they're one of the smaller US Express operators.
Now, looking at the further implications of this, it appears that US Airways will likely be required to find a place for most, if not all, of Air Wisconsin's 70 CRJ's in the Express system. Now, Chautauqua/Republic has ensured its place with its commitment to invest, and US owns PSA and Piedmont. This, of course, leaves Mesa as the obvious candidate for reduction. However, Mesa is also the only remaining regional partner with the financial wherewithal to drop $100 million into US Airways to help fund emergence. So, if this development means Mesa is out of the US Airways Express family, US Airways management loses its leverage to try to extract concessions and financing.
I can only think of one possible scenario where Mesa would stay in the system -- and that would be if they were to replace much, if not all, of PSA and Piedmont's flying, in which case you'd probably see parts of those carriers sold, leases rejected, etc.
