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In mid 2002, there was over 6 million barrels per day of excess production capacity, but by mid 2003 the excess was below 2 million. During much of 2004 and 2005 the spare capacity to produce oil has been under one million barrels per day. The reality is, 1 million barrels per day is not enough spare capacity to cover an interruption of supply from almost any OPEC producer. In a world that consumes over 80 million barrels per day of petroleum products that adds a significant risk premium to crude oil price and is largely responsible for prices in excess of $40 per barrel.
As you'd expect, there is an inverse relation between supply and price. I believe this supply/demand issue to be the root cause of higher global oil prices.. You can clearly see this whenever you hear about a hurricane or significant insurgency in an oil producing country, the oil futures market reacts and the price of oil jumps up.
Until there is an increase is supply, and or decrease in demand, the market will continue to react, and yes sometime over react to any news that relates to the supply of oil.

As you'd expect, there is an inverse relation between supply and price. I believe this supply/demand issue to be the root cause of higher global oil prices.. You can clearly see this whenever you hear about a hurricane or significant insurgency in an oil producing country, the oil futures market reacts and the price of oil jumps up.
Until there is an increase is supply, and or decrease in demand, the market will continue to react, and yes sometime over react to any news that relates to the supply of oil.