Forbes Article on Trainer

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Jet fuel sold at a significant premium to diesel fuel before Trainer began operating.

The increase in production of jet fuel inverted the price relationship between diesel fuel and jet fuel.
 

 
 

 
 
I hope you have a better understanding of the Gospel than basic supply vs demand economics.
 
Like I said, you're going to have to eventually learn that the universe does not revolve around DL or any of its subsidiaries.  The price of diesel has increased because of increased demand (trucks, cars, heating oil in the winter) not because of anything DL does at Trainer.  DL did not flip the diesel-jetA price around.  Period.
 
Where do you make up this stuff???
 
Educate yourself:
http://www.nacsonline.com/YourBusiness/FuelsReports/GasPrices_2013/Pages/Why-Diesel-Costs-More-Than-Gasoline.aspx
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/05/diesel-fuel-and-gasoline-costs/

 

[WorldTraveler]

your "facts" say nothing about the relationship between diesel and jet fuel.

keep googling.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

And you keep on fabricating data, making up stories.  They're quite enjoyable.
 

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

My made up your "facts" say nothing about the relationship between diesel and jet fuel.

 
FIFY

 

[WorldTraveler]

so you can't come up with anything to discount what DL executives have said and which DOE data shows that Trainer has indeed increased the supply of jet fuel and changed the pricing relationship between jet fuel and diesel?

 

[jcw]

So your saying that anything a DL exec says is gospel - do you think they may spin things from time to time

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, but they are legally responsible for what they say.

can you answer the question about any carrier's RASM guidance for the first quarter?.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

so you can't come up with anything to discount what DL executives have said and which DOE data shows that Trainer has indeed increased the supply of jet fuel and changed the pricing relationship between jet fuel and diesel?

 
Nobody is disputing that DL / Trainer has increased the supply of jet fuel.
 
The BS that you are trying to sell is that DL, by owning 1, that is O N E refinery has such an impact that diesel prices have been skyrocketing. 
 
That is so unbelievable that even spectator might have problems believing you.
 
Have you considered what other factors might impact the price of diesel - you know, ranging from new regulations, taxes, increased demand by trucks+cars, seasonal/regioanl demand for heating oil, etc..  Any one of these alone could possibly have a bigger influence on the price of diesel that the amount of jetA DL produces at Trainer.
 
You present yourself as an intelligent person, so think about this:  if the Trainer refinery was so powerful, why did then ConocoPhilips sell it to DL?
 
You're so infatuated with DL that it possibly cannot be healthy.
 
You'd have us believe DL is going to push OPEC around.  Or that any DL / Trainer corporate decision will have a bigger impact on the price of fuels than hurricane Katrina.
 
 
Oh, and I loved the way you analyzed the DOE data.
You focused on 1 table 1 column/row in that table that showed data about decreased jetA supplies, while at the same time choosing to ignore several other tables, including the one that showed net jetA production, over 2 years has increased in almost every region.
I hate to do this, but when you write stuff like this it makes it easy for people to take a jab at you.  For example:  I certainly hope that if you were a data analyst at DL that you did a better job than your "analysis" of the DOE data ... ... ...  Sorry man, it isn't fair to take these jabs at you but you just make it too easy for you to be ridiculed.
 

can you answer the question about any carrier's RASM guidance for the first quarter?.

 
Let's make a deal:  why don't you provide the data to show that the DL-VS JV alone produces more revenue over a given period of time than any other airline partnership.  Come on!  I still triple dog dare you!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ouch.

 

[topDawg]

 
Nobody is disputing that DL / Trainer has increased the supply of jet fuel.
 
The BS that you are trying to sell is that DL, by owning 1, that is O N E refinery has such an impact that diesel prices have been skyrocketing. 
 
That is so unbelievable that even spectator might have problems believing you.
 
Have you considered what other factors might impact the price of diesel - you know, ranging from new regulations, taxes, increased demand by trucks+cars, seasonal/regioanl demand for heating oil, etc..  Any one of these alone could possibly have a bigger influence on the price of diesel that the amount of jetA DL produces at Trainer.
 
You present yourself as an intelligent person, so think about this:  if the Trainer refinery was so powerful, why did then ConocoPhilips sell it to DL?
 
You're so infatuated with DL that it possibly cannot be healthy.
 
You'd have us believe DL is going to push OPEC around.  Or that any DL / Trainer corporate decision will have a bigger impact on the price of fuels than hurricane Katrina.
 
 
Oh, and I loved the way you analyzed the DOE data.
You focused on 1 table 1 column/row in that table that showed data about decreased jetA supplies, while at the same time choosing to ignore several other tables, including the one that showed net jetA production, over 2 years has increased in almost every region.
I hate to do this, but when you write stuff like this it makes it easy for people to take a jab at you.  For example:  I certainly hope that if you were a data analyst at DL that you did a better job than your "analysis" of the DOE data ... ... ...  Sorry man, it isn't fair to take these jabs at you but you just make it too easy for you to be ridiculed.
 
 
Let's make a deal:  why don't you provide the data to show that the DL-VS JV alone produces more revenue over a given period of time than any other airline partnership.  Come on!  I still triple dog dare you!

mother f$@cking Obama and his damn ULSD. 
 
Signed the guy who is tired of hearing about gas being under 2 bucks while my fuel is still well about 2 bucks because my government SUCKS. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

Nobody is disputing that DL / Trainer has increased the supply of jet fuel.
 
The BS that you are trying to sell is that DL, by owning 1, that is O N E refinery has such an impact that diesel prices have been skyrocketing. 
 
That is so unbelievable that even spectator might have problems believing you.
 
Have you considered what other factors might impact the price of diesel - you know, ranging from new regulations, taxes, increased demand by trucks+cars, seasonal/regioanl demand for heating oil, etc..  Any one of these alone could possibly have a bigger influence on the price of diesel that the amount of jetA DL produces at Trainer.
 
You present yourself as an intelligent person, so think about this:  if the Trainer refinery was so powerful, why did then ConocoPhilips sell it to DL?
 
You're so infatuated with DL that it possibly cannot be healthy.
 
You'd have us believe DL is going to push OPEC around.  Or that any DL / Trainer corporate decision will have a bigger impact on the price of fuels than hurricane Katrina.
 
 
Oh, and I loved the way you analyzed the DOE data.
You focused on 1 table 1 column/row in that table that showed data about decreased jetA supplies, while at the same time choosing to ignore several other tables, including the one that showed net jetA production, over 2 years has increased in almost every region.
I hate to do this, but when you write stuff like this it makes it easy for people to take a jab at you.  For example:  I certainly hope that if you were a data analyst at DL that you did a better job than your "analysis" of the DOE data ... ... ...  Sorry man, it isn't fair to take these jabs at you but you just make it too easy for you to be ridiculed.

once again, you have the basic facts of the discussion and my arguments wrong.

It is no wonder that you consistently come to the wrong conclusion.

I never said that DL has affected the price of diesel fuel. Never.

I said DL has changed the relationship between the price of diesel fuel and jet fuel.

by producing jet fuel, of which there is far less produced than diesel fuel, DL not only can but has forced the price of jet fuel lower RELATIVE to diesel fuel.

again, it isn't my observation. DL execs have said it. The data just happens to confirm it.

If they are wrong, notify the SEC and get them to file charges against DL.

you can look at jet fuel production but there is nothing that says that production is higher than consumption - because if there was, then stocks would not be down.

given the fact that the US airline industry has grown over the last couple years, it is no surprise that jet fuel consumption is up ALONG WITH production.

that doesn't change the fact that stocks are down.

And DL still is producing a higher percentage of jet fuel via Trainer while other producers continue to decrease jet fuel production in favor of diesel that is more profitable for them.

feel free to argue the point. It is obvious you don't get the facts and would rather argue about a point that you and others will be shown to be wrong about.

DL is affecting the supply of jet fuel, is controlling larger and larger percentages of jet fuel production, and other jet fuel producers will continue to cut production as long as it remains more profitable for them to produce diesel as it is now.

if you and others aren't smart enough to figure out the implications of those changes, then you will just have to sit on the sidelines and be surprised when it all plays out.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I said DL has changed the relationship between the price of diesel fuel and jet fuel.

Your entire premise of DL / Trainer being a hurricane force in changing the price of diesel vs the price of jetA is incorrect.
 
Again - think about it:  if 1 refinery was so powerful, why did ConocoPhilips sell it to DL?  Have you even considered any of the other factors that influence the price of fuels?
 
I hate to burst your bubble, but the universe does not revolve around DL or any of its subsidiaries.

 

[WorldTraveler]

#1 I didn't use the first word "hurricane force".... I did say it will take time, perhaps years, for the changes to take place in the market.. that is not how hurricanes work

2. DL is using the refinery for very different purposes than CP. It isn't hard to see why an asset that didn't work for one party now works for someone else.

3. no one said it does. you jump to that conclusion out of envy that DL is actually succeeding at a strategy that no one else thought of first.

Few people have understand the basis of DL's refinery purchase or the metrics to determine if it is succeeding or not. You have amply demonstrated you are one of them.

DL's purchase of Trainer is a done deal. The impacts of DL's operation of it are still continuing. It will become more apparent in time why it was the right move.

I challenge you to be willing to accept that it might be something that you don't understand now but might be able to learn about from someone else and more importantly understand more completely in the future.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

#1 I didn't use the first word "hurricane force".... I did say it will take time, perhaps years, for the changes to take place in the market.. that is not how hurricanes work

2. DL is using the refinery for very different purposes than CP. It isn't hard to see why an asset that didn't work for one party now works for someone else.

3. no one said it does. you jump to that conclusion out of envy that DL is actually succeeding at a strategy that no one else thought of first.

Few people have understand the basis of DL's refinery purchase or the metrics to determine if it is succeeding or not. You have amply demonstrated you are one of them.

DL's purchase of Trainer is a done deal. The impacts of DL's operation of it are still continuing. It will become more apparent in time why it was the right move.

I challenge you to be willing to accept that it might be something that you don't understand now but might be able to learn about from someone else and more importantly understand more completely in the future.

 
While you did not use the words "hurricane force" your writings certainly convey that. 
And I don't think this is only my opinion.
 
DL tweaked the Trainer refinery to produce what, approx. ~40% jetA from a barrel of crude as opposed to the average ~10% or less that other refineries produce.  (feel free to correct me as I'm pulling these numbers from my memory).
 
But again ask yourself:  what impact can 1 refinery have?  Certainly it helps DL regionally.  By regionally in lower fuel costs - I'm thinking NY, PHL maybe DC? - that's my only assumption feel free to correct me - and yes, DL does have a sizable operation in NY. 
 
However, to claim as you do that DL/Trainer have such a large, national, almost global impact on the price of fuels is sheer lunacy, no matter how much you spin it.
 
Feel free to character assassinate me and others, be it posters on here or authors of newspaper articles, the opinion is overwhelming that the refinery purchase was a mistake.
 
Spin away.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'll take your estimates of production as ballpark. and acceptable.

btw, DL is at the chemical limit of how much jet fuel you can get out of crude.

as for the impact argument, you simply don't want to read the data or accept what it says.

if production was growing faster than consumption, inventories wouldn't be growing.

if you read data elsewhere regarding jet fuel production as well as Trainer's capacity, you would realize that DL is actually replacing jet fuel capacity that is being cut by other refineries even in PADD 1 (east coast).

whether you can accept it or not, Trainer is a significant part of total jet fuel production in the US and it is controlled by one airline that has changed the pricing such that refiners have less incentive to produce jet fuel than they do diesel.