DOT isn't gonna reward US with route authority. They won't subject travelers to the service US provides. Sandpit thinks international service is to Tijuiana. They just better give up. Just hope that someone tries to buy US, its our only hope. This management doesn't have a clue on how to plug in a toaster.
While I don't think that US should be awarded the route in its current state, I think that people underestimate US's application for several reasons.
1st, the DOT doesn't award slots to airlines that they feel sorry for. Everyone seems to think that Delta will get the next slot simply because DL is the largest airline in the US currently without a flight to China. If it really worked by trying to make things equal for the majors, though, United WOULD NOT have been awarded the slot to PEK last time. United was one of the biggest slot holders to China from the US. They were not awarded the route because the DOT felt that they deserved it for being left out, or having the least or anything like that, it was for the route which benefitted both parties (cities, airports, population) the most. Which brings me to my next point.
PHL is by far the most underserved city in the US to Asia. THERE ARE NOT ANY ASIAN ROUTES FROM PHL! Delta serves ATL-NRT, and Korean serves ATL-Seoul. Delta is also about to serve ATL-Seoul and will soon serve ATL-Dubai, and ATL-Tel Aviv. That is a decent amount of Asian service for ATL. ATL would benefit from service to PVG, sure, but it would provide more benefit to PHL, which has no service to Asia, and is a larger metro area than ATL.
The largest metro areas are:
1. New York - covered by CO EWR-PEK, Air China JFK-PEK, China Eastern JFK-PVG
2. Los Angeles - China Eastern LAX-PVG, China Southern LAX-Guangzhou
3. Chicago - UA ORD-PEK&PVG AA ORD-PVG
4. Washington/Baltimore - UA just got IAD-PEK
5. San Francisco - Jet Airways PVG, UA SFO-PEK&PVG Air China SFO-PEK
6. Philadelphia - NO SERVICE TO ASIA, LET ALONE CHINA!!
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10. Atlanta - Service to Asia
As you can see just from looking at this, United did not need a pity slot from the DOT because of their lack of slots. The Washington area was one of the largest metro areas and it didn't have service to China. It didn't have a China-US government connection. IAD-PEK was shown to have the most benefit to both communities, and was awarded to UA. CO didn't get it because there was already enough NYC-China service. AA could have gotten it for DFW-PEK, but changed their application at the last minute to include a stop in ORD, and they shot themselves in the foot. And NW's DTW service didn't add anything to already the largest China slot holder.
DL also lost out on a slew of slots that were given out 2 years ago because ATL was shown to have few to no O&D passengers from ATL-China. Philadelphia, while it won't be as high in O&D as New York, will have decent enough O&D in its catchment area to safely surpass ATL in that field.
If US gets its house in order, gets those A340's, puts together a decent proposal, and gets enough local leaders to show support for their service, they should be able to walk away with this. There reputation could hurt them right now, but there is still time to fix that.
I don't know why everyone thinks it is just going to go to DL by default. ATL is the largest hub in the world, and in accordance has a bevy of international routes and Asian routes for its passengers. PHL, on the other hand, is in the largest metro area without service to China, and in addition does not have service to Asia. Its pretty clear that according to the usual DOT measurement, that is benefit to the community, PHL-PVG would provide more benefits than ATL-PVG
