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nicky guy

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Stand by UA/CO....and DL, because WN is starting to show that they are now in a "no holds barred" mood.

Meaning Southwest is about to begin assaulting EWR and ATL.

WN is already in PHL(US). But what I find rather interesting is (for the most part) WN and AA seem to pretty much Avoid one another. Just like Herb Kelleher and Bob Crandall did years back.
If your AA, you've got to be Loving these upcoming scenarios !

Who EVER thought that in the next 19 days, DL would have 2 NEW Unions on the property, and WN soon to be breathing down there back .
 
You have misstated a simple fact. WN is not avoiding AA. AA is avoiding WN. We have basically given WN any city or route that they want.

We pretty much gave them MCI. We seem to be in the process of giving them STL as well. We totally withdrew from the STL-MCI, STL-BNA, STL-MSP markets just to name a few. Though to be fair, WN didn't start service on STL-MSP until we terminated all service on that route. AA cut STL-BOS from 3 nonstops/day to 1; so WN started 2 nonstops a day on that route.

We eliminated STL-LAS nonstops when WN started that route. I think they also have an STL-DEN flight, but I'm not sure on that one. On AA, you now have to go through DFW or ORD to get to LAS or DEN.
 
Stand by UA/CO....and DL, because WN is starting to show that they are now in a "no holds barred" mood.

Meaning Southwest is about to begin assaulting EWR and ATL.

WN is already in PHL(US). But what I find rather interesting is (for the most part) WN and AA seem to pretty much Avoid one another. Just like Herb Kelleher and Bob Crandall did years back.
If your AA, you've got to be Loving these upcoming scenarios !

Who EVER thought that in the next 19 days, DL would have 2 NEW Unions on the property, and WN soon to be breathing down there back .

While some people find your hate for the company you work for in good taste , I find it amusing that One LCC is gone, Airtran and is being replaced by another LCC, Southwest, hence I say this issue is a moot point......................besides you can only fit so many people in a 737.

2nd, while I believe the ramp will unionized, I don't see the same for the FA's. Good luck in Fantasy land though !
 
I have to imagine (and hope) that both network planning and revenue management are taking the WN/FL merger much more seriously than you. I assume there is some serious Game Theory going on right now on Mahogany Row, and if so, good. If DL is going to take a "we're-not-worried-'cause-we have-business-class-and-avod" mentality, then we're f'ed...
 
I can assure you, Kev, that DL does in fact take WN very seriously.... but for all the talk about how much damage WN has done to network carriers, it is very clear that there is a clear line between where they have had success and where they have not..... CO, DL, and NW have largely kept WN at bay in their key markets while UA and US have been fertile ground for WN's incursions. In markets that AA has wanted to keep, they have done ok but let's face it that AA has turned four hubs over to WN... RDU, BNA, SJC, and now STL.

Also, don't forget that DL has the largest average gauge of domestic aircraft in the US which makes them more than able to compete effectively against LFCs.... as evidenced by why WN is pulling back in SLC. ATL is obviously a much bigger market but there are very few markets in the US that offer as many seats as key markets from ATL. DL has more than enough capacity to throw into markets that WN chooses to enter and DL's current plans to add seats to most of their domestic aircraft types only drives down costs while adding seats that can easily be used to compete with WN.

Another data point of interest.... DL boards more than 3 times more local domestic ATL passengers than WN does at any of its other stations and more than 4X what FL currently boards. With the number of gates that WN has to work with in ATL they simply cannot come anywhere close to providing a level of service that will put them anywhere close to the size of DL. OTOH, in DEN, WN's largest operation in a network carrier hub, WN now boards 85% of the number of domestic passengers that UA boards. UA has given DEN to WN and it is no surprise that DEN is now one of UA's least profitable hubs.
Further, WN's MDW "hub" carries about 50% connecting or through passengers which means WN really only fills half of its revenue seats with local MDW passengers, an airport at which it dominates service.

WN can indeed set up an operation and they strategically need to.... just like they need to in NYC and why needed to add MSP but neither are any guarantee of success for WN in ATL. ATL may well be one of WN's largest operations in terms of airplane movements but they will be substantially smaller than DL.
Finally, DL has the lowest costs of any of the network carriers.
DL is very well positioned to compete against WN....

in contrast, I take it you notice that UA decided to add LAX-PVG right on top of AA. As for DL vs. AA, you might want to note that DL - not AA - carries more local passengers between JFK and MIA. DL has also set up "light housekeeping" in LGA-ORD, one of AA's key domestic markets...

Nicky, the Wright Amendment is only a few years from being fully repealed which means that WN will be free to fly to the entire US from the airport closest to downtown Dallas. WN is construcing a new terminal and is also planning about what short haul flights they will pull down in favor of more long haul flying.

WN is a major carrier now... but to think that any one carrier is exempt from their competition is naive... but thinking that DL will be most negatively impacted by WN is not at all in line with the history of how and where WN has found success competing against the US network carriers.
 
In contrast, I take it you notice that UA decided to add LAX-PVG right on top of AA.

Yes, and UA stands to be diluting revenue from its existing SFO-PVG flights. At least AA is adding feed at LAX. They were already the largest operator at LAX, and just got that much bigger.

Nicky, the Wright Amendment is only a few years from being fully repealed which means that WN will be free to fly to the entire US from the airport closest to downtown Dallas. WN is construcing a new terminal and is also planning about what short haul flights they will pull down in favor of more long haul flying.

WN is a major carrier now... but to think that any one carrier is exempt from their competition is naive... but thinking that DL will be most negatively impacted by WN is not at all in line with the history of how and where WN has found success competing against the US network carriers.

While all the WN fans believe that opening up Love Field is going to be the death of AA, the fact is the airport is operating at capacity, and it can't grow beyond its present size under the compromise agreement which allowed Wright to be sunsetted. So the "new" terminal is really just refreshing a 40 year old facility. It isn't adding any capacity which isn't already there.

In a lot of ways, the argument you just made about ATL is even truer about Dallas. In ATL, WN could try to acquire more gate space or fund a terminal expansion if they wanted to. That's not an option at Love.

You also have to recognize that while Love Field is convenient to downtown Dallas, that's about it. The Metroplex has expanded quite a lot in all directions, and DFW is a lot quicker drive from places like Plano & McKinney. If you want to fly out of Love, you've got to deal with side streets which are choke-points. It will be easier to access via DART when the light rail expansion opens up, but even there, you have to take a bus via the same side streets as the rail line is on the wrong side of Denton Drive.

Personally, I see UA having the greatest exposure to WN.
 
eolsen,
I don't think any one - certainly not me - believes that lifting the Wright Amendment will be the death of AA but it is a serious challenge to AA's hub at DFW.

Yes, DAL is operating at capacity which is why WN is building a new terminal with more capacity airside on the ramp and in the gate areas because they believe they can add a number of new flights to other cities through the added capacity. Further, WN has already stated that they will cancel a number of short haul flights in order to provide room for long haul flights.
Finally, WN is well on the way to acquiring 737-800s which will provide increased seats in a number of key markets and DAL will certainly get some of them.

WN will have about 200 flts/day to work with at DAL which is actually pretty close to the size of WN's operations at other key cities such as MDW, PHX, and LAS... and also about the limit of what they can add at ATL given the amount of gates they can operate.

200 flts/day in ANY hub is not insignificant whether it be ATL or Dallas... the difference primarily between the two is that DL has 20% lower costs than AA and DL also has a higher average hull size in its domestic fleet which means it can absorb more traffic - and because DL is adding seats to most of its domestic airplanes, it is in an even better position to add capacity to ATL at minimal incremental costs.

ATL also has no room to add more gates in the current midfield terminal complex which means that any gates that are added will have to be in the proposed south terminal where gates will be multiples higher to build. Given that DL is a signatory airline at ATL and can effectively block new projects - just as AA can at DFW - it is highly unlikely that anyone will build more gates 1. because of the cost and 2. because DL has no desire to see more gates added to the airport.

I do agree with you that UA will have higher exposure to WN but given that AA and UA's costs are quickly moving to the same point, the real question is who can best defend themselves. AA and UA both have major presences in key markets in the US - the very same markets that WN believes they need to grow in as well. Given that DL is also growing in the top business markets in the US, AA and UA both have more than enough competition both between themselves and with others.
 

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