March and 1st Q #'s increases

[swamt]

All the numbers being reported for the 1st Q as well as for March, and are looking good.  Just hope the profit numbers will prevail over the winter mess we all experienced in the 1st quarter.  Some other airlines are posting drastic affects tied to the storms, just hoping it won't us too bad, however it is the 1st Q anyway...

 

[WorldTraveler]

trips flown was down 4.5% on 0.8% more capacity.

 

[eolesen]

For those who don't know... trips = departures.

More capacity, fewer departures. That's a good problem to have. LF also went up almost 2% YOY.

Seems like WN isn't missing those 717's nearly as much as some may have wanted people to believe.

 

[robbedagain]

agree with you swamt..   dont know bout wn  but on www.justplanenews.com  theres an article that the new aa says  it may be slightly down... like 5 to 7 % area rather than the predicted 6% to 8% range..

 

[WorldTraveler]

For those who don't know... trips = departures.

More capacity, fewer departures. That's a good problem to have. LF also went up almost 2% YOY.

Seems like WN isn't missing those 717's nearly as much as some may have wanted people to believe.

but it means that WN's network is covering fewer flights.
Yes, efficiency comes from larger aircraft but it also means that WN has fewer flights which is a detriment in highly competitive markets - and is also the reason why WN has had to close some cities. They just don't have the aircraft to fly their existing schedule plus add the new opportunities.

 

[eolesen]

Fewer flights, but length of haul is up 2.5%. Again, dumping airplanes isn't showing up too drastically in their traffic.

Also keep in mind that Easter shifted from March 2013 to April this year. Not that it's a huge travel week, but RPM's do take a bit of a bump up when it is around Spring Break.

 

[robbedagain]

E  when say WN reduces flights at some airports but elect to use larger planes like the 738  wouldnt that actually be an improvement if you will   rather than say using other smaller model 737s?

 

[WorldTraveler]

you are both right.... if the network can still be covered, fewer flights are better.

The issue is not that WN is not able to carry the same amount of traffic. They are doing that fairly well. But their network is being concentrated more heavily over a smaller number of routes when trips flown is down 5% - and that is one of the lower reductions in trips flown this year.

It may well be that WN's reduced presence at ATL (this is consolidated traffic for both FL and WN) as well as the station closures reflect this .... but it still says that even if WN is getting 12 used 737s this year - they will have a hard time covering all of the new flying. You've seen the press release of how many flights WN intends to start from DAL alone plus DCA plus LGA. You can add it up but that is easily dozens, not just one dozen, aircraft worth of flying.

it is true that the Easter shift almost always messes with March and April traffic.

BTW, all of the big 4 have now reported March traffic and the results are as follows (in order of first to last to report)

DL Load factor up 0.5% on 3.2% more capacity
WN LF up 0.7% on 0.8% more capacity
AA LF down 1.6% on 2.9% more capacity
UA LF flat on 0.3% less capacity

DL and WN said RASM was up about 1% while AA said RASM was up 2.5-3.5%

DL and UA are the only two carriers that report quarterly fuel costs. DL came in at $3.02-3.07/gal while UA continues to be higher than DL, this quarter by 15 cents/gallon.

 

[eolesen]

Again, you seem to assume that they've got the dial cranked all the way up on utilization.

You also seem to think that they're going to maintain the same level of service to everyplace out of DAL that they're currently serving.

I suspect we'll know what the October schedules will be by the earnings call on the 24th.

 

[WorldTraveler]

you are correct that we don't know what WN will cut at DAL... but swamt and others have said there won't be a lot of cuts. You and I know that if they can get the gates to add new flights, they will not cut what they do have... but the reality is that they could use more 738s, reduce frequencies in some markets - HOU is, what, almost twice per hour? - and stretch the schedule longer into the night and start it earlier in the morning.

But, WN still has very aggressive plans for growth at DCA and DAL that will require dozens of planes....

the good news is that DAL happens relatively late in the year in an off-peak month so they could pull down other markets for the winter until more aircraft come.... but the chances are still very high that the rest of WN's network will be reduced in order to cover all of these new opportunities.

 

[swamt]

E, your right. We don't miss the 717's at all.  Flights have dropped at certain cities do to the added seats and larger aircraft.  The 717's would have cost more to run as they are not as efficient as the 737's.  Both models are the same cost to operate, but more seats on the 37's.  It was a no brainer for SWA to get rid of them.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I have never disagreed with the rationale that WN used to decide to get rid of the 717s.

My only point is and remains - and you haven't provided anything to counter it - that WN is offering fewer flights to fewer cities.

If WN wants to become a "denser" airline with less nationwide focus, then they are certainly on track. If WN wants to provide a balanced nationwide network that serves large, medium, and small cities, then they are not only not moving in that direction, but they are leaving significant opportunities for network airlines who not only do that but also are moving into WN's key routes.

 

[WNMECH]

I have never disagreed with the rationale that WN used to decide to get rid of the 717s.

My only point is and remains - and you haven't provided anything to counter it - that WN is offering fewer flights to fewer cities.

If WN wants to become a "denser" airline with less nationwide focus, then they are certainly on track. If WN wants to provide a balanced nationwide network that serves large, medium, and small cities, then they are not only not moving in that direction, but they are leaving significant opportunities for network airlines who not only do that but also are moving into WN's key routes.

Since you pretend to know everything about airlines financials at airlines you don't work at, how about you provide links to the threads when you warned about and predicted the Delta bankruptcy.
That was right under your nose and coming for many years.
Where are all those predictions.


Me thinks you don't know what you don't know.

 

[700UW]

Southwest Airlines Traffic Up for March
 
Southwest Airlines announced operational results for March 2014. The airline’s system traffic, capacity, and load factor all increased from the same period of last year.
System traffic for March 2014 was 9.6 billion revenue passenger miles, up 1.6% from 9.4 billion revenue passenger miles in March 2013.
The airline’s capacity also increased by 0.8% to 11.6 billion available seat miles, or ASMs, from 11.5 billion last year.
Southwest’s load factor was 82.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from 82% last year.
The airline estimated that passenger revenue per available seat mile, or Prasm, is up by approximately 1% from March 2013.
- See more at: http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com/2014/04/southwest-airlines-traffic-up-for-march/#sthash.axGieLXF.dpuf

 

[WorldTraveler]

Since you pretend to know everything about airlines financials at airlines you don't work at, how about you provide links to the threads when you warned about and predicted the Delta bankruptcy.
That was right under your nose and coming for many years.
Where are all those predictions.


Me thinks you don't know what you don't know.

there a number of threads on this forum about the period leading up to DL's BK as well as their recovery in BK. Feel free to go look at what I and others said and get back with us on what was and was not accurately said and by whom.