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Merger with LCC in the spring

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The talk of US and UA merging with US being the acquirer has really heated up lately. It's been mentioned on every trip for the past few weeks (by UA nonrevs too). I also heard of the merger details being 80% done and we might hear something on the 14th. 🙄

I hate to burst your bubble, but pilots and flight attendants are the worst source for factual information. If UA agrees to a merger, it's going to be with somebody that fills the holes in their global route system (read Latin America). Should the consolidation race begin, UA will partner with DL or CO.

With a U.S. recession looming, airline stocks tanking, oil at $100 a barrel, and major write-downs in the housing market, I'm not so sure that capital markets are going to be all that free-flowing to start a M&A race in the airline industry...just my personal opinion. I could be mistaken, but not more so than speculation of a US-UA combination...
 
Etc, etc, etc.....

That's easy -- take delivery of the planes and then immediately re-sell them. Airbus wouldn't be very happy, but the A330-200s and A350s are hot commodities right now and even the A340s could be sold at the right price. The buyer might actually be Boeing, taking the Airbus planes in trade for a massive B777/B787/B747-8 order from UA, like Boeing did a few years ago in a deal with SQ. While this is all merely speculation, UA should nonetheless be able to move the contracted Airbus planes without a great deal of difficulty.


IMHO, there's not a chance of this happening. With both Tilton and Parker talking about consolidation almost constantly, the fact that a UA/US merger (no matter who would be doing the buying) has not already been announced leads me to believe that it won't happen. Of course, this industry is always full of surprises, so I suppose one should never say "never". But that said, IMHO I still don't see a UA/US merger happening.

Ref: "That's easy......" That is so farfetched, I won't even reply.

The rest:
The reason for the higher yields at IAD versus PHL is simple. 60+% of PHL's O&D is generated by LCCs - both domestic and international,
whereas less than 25% of IAD (domestic) and essentially 0% international passengers are LCC revenue. UA and particularly the 18
international carriers at IAD offer premium services - at premium prices and the O&D community has little choice but to pay - or use
connecting services. PHL's purported less Yields (I do not necessarily accept your presented data, but for the purpose of this thread won't
insist on references), have less to do with the population mix between Philadelphia and Washington O&D than with a simple situation of
passengers forced to pay non-LCC Hub (UA) premium prices, which consequently generate higher Revenue and associated Yields.

I see little difference between the quality of IAD O&D and say PIT O&D in it's heyday before US was an LCC. PIT (as well as CVG today) had similar Yields/Revenue to IAD. Replace the non-LCC dominant carrier (UA) with an LCC and you quickly reduce your overall Yields - and it has little to do with the stature of the population. Further, who is to say that if UA where to acquire US (and PHL), it would not advantage that situation by turning the airport and it's 7M catchment into a non-LCC, high Yield Hub.

Near the final stages of the 2000-2001 UA-US merger attempt, UA appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee and presented a formal document wherein they committed to GROW PHL if the merger was approved, not to reduce it. They related both international and domestic growth numbers and associated percentages at PHL. I leave it to you to research the citation.

You seem to have a preconceived notion that because UA has better infrastructure and services than US, that is in itself a guarantee that UA would be the acquirer. I submit that has little to do with reality. It's obvious the UA's management is in somewhat of a panic mode to divest before another financial crisis emerges. US on the other hand has recently ordered a significant number of short, medium, long and ultra long haul aircraft for delivery through 2015. I believe that if UA cannot negotiate for a complete merger (or buyout), they will look for alternatives, such as piecemeal selling their Asian routes and aircraft and merging what is left including possibly the name, to the highest bidder - which could very well be US. Anyone who naively thinks the UA name would save the airline from fragmentation or complete dissolution should take a course on the history of PANAM and TWA.
 
US acquiring UA? Parker still hasn't tied up the loose ends with his current merger,where on earth do you get the idea that the capital markets are somehow going to line up to sport him billions more to ruin United Airlines? 🙄

PHL is ten pounds of sh!t crammed into a five pound bag, you can keep it.
 
Nobody thought PIT would go down the tubes, but look what happened. First US cut back service and now SWA is even cutting back on service. PIT was a #1 hub also.
While DTW could be downsized, there is no way it would ever be gutted as badly as PIT.
 
PHL's purported less Yields (I do not necessarily accept your presented data, but for the purpose of this thread won't
insist on references) ...
It's late at night so I'll only address one issue right now, and save the rest for later.

The yields that I quoted are not purported -- they are very real and, even though you're not insisting upon it right now, I'll be happy to give you the reference anyway. Through my job, I have access to the DOT's international O&D data that is not available to the general public, so I can look up the reported international yields by hub, market and carrier (I'm not allowed to disclose actual numbers but I can give out percentages and ratios related to the data). Perhaps you do not have such access to that restricted data. If you don't, you can either accept my numbers or not -- it doesn't matter to me. Such is life.
 
UA/US sounds awfully messy as the current merger is still in a state of perpetual ugliness but keep in mind that any UA merger does NOT have to make sense. Tilton has a $40M incentive to merge this airline, does he really care about the aftermath?- ask any UA employee. The current US/AW has too may overlapping routes so passing the antitrust would be impossible unless US/AW was gutted. :angry:
UA is not going to exit Star Alliance or divide from Lufthansa. The Jetblue option sounds more reasonable. Who knows, maybe US is the merger and Jetblue becomes a codeshare. :unsure:
 
US/AWA had too many overlapping routes? Thats the first I heard of that, in fact quite the opposite.
 
UA/US sounds awfully messy as the current merger is still in a state of perpetual ugliness but keep in mind that any UA merger does NOT have to make sense. Tilton has a $40M incentive to merge this airline, does he really care about the aftermath?- ask any UA employee. The current US/AW has too may overlapping routes so passing the antitrust would be impossible unless US/AW was gutted. :angry:
UA is not going to exit Star Alliance or divide from Lufthansa. The Jetblue option sounds more reasonable. Who knows, maybe US is the merger and Jetblue becomes a codeshare. :unsure:

Let's hope this is all rumor and none of it comes true. Merging with the train wreck that US has become would be suicide for UA. If anything happens, we can only hope it might simply be a purchase of some US assets by UA - such as their PHL operations or CLT operations. I moved from flying US to UA because it got so bad after the AW merger - I can only hope I don't have to move to another carrier again if the UA/LCC merger happens.

I just don't see how UA could merge with LCC and get the US operations merged into the UA operations. Service, aircraft configs, res systems etc. have fallen so low on US that it would take years to get them up to UA standards.

Maybe UA will just take all of US and merge it into "TED" - how is that for a rumor starter? LOL
 
Let's hope this is all rumor and none of it comes true. Merging with the train wreck that US has become would be suicide for UA. If anything happens, we can only hope it might simply be a purchase of some US assets by UA - such as their PHL operations or CLT operations.
IMHO, the CLT hub is the only thing that UA would want from US, and even that is a remote possibility requiring a US fragmentation, which I don't believe is imminent. What UA really wants (and Tilton has said so several times) is a merger partner with extensive South American operations -- and since a UA/AA merger wouldn't be allowed to happen, that means either CO or DL. So to further the rumor-mongering, how about UA + CO + CLT? It would cover all parts of the U.S. and most other areas of the world except Africa. Any thoughts?
 
What UA really wants (and Tilton has said so several times) is a merger partner with extensive South American operations -- and since a UA/AA merger wouldn't be allowed to happen, that means either CO or DL. So to further the rumor-mongering, how about UA + CO + CLT? It would cover all parts of the U.S. and most other areas of the world except Africa. Any thoughts?

How many S.American destinations does CO service? Maybe a half-dozen? And how many does UA serve?

Forget the smokescreen. If UA wants S.America consider buying Iberia like euros. Hey, why isn't UA looking overseas for a merger?

Yeah, not enough time before the fat lady appears again.

Your shareholders tolerate Tilton & Parker so you get what you deserve. Good luck!
 
Let's hope this is all rumor and none of it comes true. Merging with the train wreck that US has become would be suicide for UA. If anything happens, we can only hope it might simply be a purchase of some US assets by UA - such as their PHL operations or CLT operations. I moved from flying US to UA because it got so bad after the AW merger - I can only hope I don't have to move to another carrier again if the UA/LCC merger happens.

I just don't see how UA could merge with LCC and get the US operations merged into the UA operations. Service, aircraft configs, res systems etc. have fallen so low on US that it would take years to get them up to UA standards.

Maybe UA will just take all of US and merge it into "TED" - how is that for a rumor starter? LOL


Your being awfully kind to UA- too kind. We suck and everyone I tell that I work for United starts telling me how they will fly with anyone but United. The Mgt. of UA/AA screw up KORD with too many flights. The City of Chicago has an archaic way of deciding weather the runway is considered wet, (which has a lot to do with arrival rates), and Chicago center, (ATC), continues to get worse. All is blamed on the airline and its only a matter of time before customers across the country will be saying "ABC" Anything But Chicago.

By the way TED IS DEAD.
 
US/AWA had too many overlapping routes? Thats the first I heard of that, in fact quite the opposite.


Sorry, let me clarify. The US/AW group has to many overlapping routes with United. I'm speaking in particular to the operations in the west.
 
How many S.American destinations does CO service? Maybe a half-dozen? And how many does UA serve?

Forget the smokescreen. If UA wants S.America consider buying Iberia like euros. Hey, why isn't UA looking overseas for a merger?

Yeah, not enough time before the fat lady appears again.

Your shareholders tolerate Tilton & Parker so you get what you deserve. Good luck!


I probably should put these replies in one post instead becoming a post ####.

UA serves, Rio Janeiro, Sao Paulo, & Buenos Aires, with seasonal service to Montevideo.
One roundtrip a day from ORD and IAD except Rio only has one flight from IAD. The Montevideo flight is an extension of the Buenos Aires flight.
The rest is a smattering of flights to the Caribbean and Central America.

The bulk of our shareholders are the senior execs and the institutional investors that own our debt, you know, Tilton's golf buddies.

An overseas merger isn't possible until the law changes to allow foreign ownership to increase above 50%, its currently at 25%.
 
US acquiring UA? Parker still hasn't tied up the loose ends with his current merger,where on earth do you get the idea that the capital markets are somehow going to line up to sport him billions more to ruin United Airlines? 🙄

PHL is ten pounds of sh!t crammed into a five pound bag, you can keep it.
Wouldn't it be fun to see the US East pilots vote out ALPA just in time for a merger with UA? I'm actually pulling for it just so I can watch all hell break loose.
 
Well, as of todays news:

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3
Article 4
Article 5

Seems that the title of this thread is blown out of the water. LCC is not merging with UA, or anyone else for that matter. The players are DL, NW, CO, and UA. DL is specifically interested in UA or NW, which leaves CO to party with other.

I've said it before, and I will say it again... LCC merging with UA simply a fantasy.
 
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