Nobody Wants To Say The L-word.

[LGA Fleet Service]

What IF we put BA and KLM into the blender "alone"

[post="289738"][/post]​

Air France might not be too happy about that, seeing as they own KLM... 😀

 

[WorldTraveler]

UAL is still owned by its stockholders. No plan of reorganization has been approved by the judge so no change of ownership has occurred. UAL still has the right to develop its own POR.

If UAL's creditors decided they wanted to develop a POR that involved a merger w/ another airline, they would have to propose that POR and go through the process w/ the court. Not something that happens overnight and not something they are going to do right now w/ the imminent threat of 2 large competitors reorganizing their finances, either in or out of BK.

KL is owned by AF which has a relationship with DL. AA could possibly wish it were allied w/ AF, but you can bet DL's contract with AF has clauses that prevent DL from being dumped in favor of another US airline.

NW still has the ability to reject any merger CO would do w/ another airline. You can pretty well bet that means that NW will not allow CO to merge w/ anyone unless NW plus somebody else is larger/stronger than CO plus their partner. Since DL+NW is not stronger than CO+UA, CO/UA will not happen. NW's potential partners are AA, CO, and DL. NW could allow CO/DL if NW merges w/ AA but I don't think that would happen unless NW is liquidated or NW sells off only its transpac rights to AA. DL/UA doesn't need NW's approval and would leave NW/CO as a very distant third place behind AA/? and DL/UA or part of AA alongside DL/UA and CO as an independent. NW could be acquired by AA, lose its right to reject a CO transaction, and then CO could merge with UA leaving DL out of the mix but I think you could bet that AA would not lose NW's right of refusal on CO's transactions.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

This exercise in "fantasy football" is VERY VERY easy to predict.

When these carriers start playing "musical chairs", "you can bet the farm", that the 1st/2nd thing to happen will be AA winds up with new Asian routes from either UA/CO, or very likely NW !!

IT's "AA"............."NO BRAINER" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

 

[ZMAN777]

This exercise in "fantasy football" is VERY VERY easy to predict.

When these carriers start playing "musical chairs", "you can bet the farm", that the 1st/2nd thing to happen will be AA winds up with new Asian routes from either UA/CO, or very likely NW !!

IT's "AA"............."NO BRAINER" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

[post="289942"][/post]​

Not saying any of this will happen. Highly unlikely I believe. But, for the sake of arguement, lets say it does. What line of logic dictates that AA would acquire UAL routes to Asia? Especially since DAL and UAL have almost ZERO overlap in that area? Doesn't make any sense at all.

What makes more sense would be AA's desire to thwart any such merger before it happens. If that doesn't work then they'd most likely see if there would be any way of acquiring NWA (unlikely, unless things really go south there).

What most likely would happen is that there'd be a re-shuffling of top carriers in the US with the combined UAL/DAL becoming the largest (not necessarily the best) carrier.

Again, I doubt there's much chance of this happening anytime soon, if ever. If you're talking mergers then I'd put money on a UAL/CAL merger as I believe they compliment eachother much better. Just my two cents.

Cheers,
Z B)

 

[WorldTraveler]

NHBB,
You never were one to be constained by facts, were you?

 

[Busdrvr]

NHBB, the "first" thing to happen would probably be AMR's unions running in with a voluntary paycut. That would be more in line with the AMR Unions past actions..... 🙄 😛

 

[Bulscu]

UAL is still owned by its stockholders. No plan of reorganization has been approved by the judge so no change of ownership has occurred. UAL still has the right to develop its own POR.

If UAL's creditors decided they wanted to develop a POR that involved a merger w/ another airline, they would have to propose that POR and go through the process w/ the court. Not something that happens overnight and not something they are going to do right now w/ the imminent threat of 2 large competitors reorganizing their finances, either in or out of BK.

KL is owned by AF which has a relationship with DL. AA could possibly wish it were allied w/ AF, but you can bet DL's contract with AF has clauses that prevent DL from being dumped in favor of another US airline.

NW still has the ability to reject any merger CO would do w/ another airline. You can pretty well bet that means that NW will not allow CO to merge w/ anyone unless NW plus somebody else is larger/stronger than CO plus their partner. Since DL+NW is not stronger than CO+UA, CO/UA will not happen. NW's potential partners are AA, CO, and DL. NW could allow CO/DL if NW merges w/ AA but I don't think that would happen unless NW is liquidated or NW sells off only its transpac rights to AA. DL/UA doesn't need NW's approval and would leave NW/CO as a very distant third place behind AA/? and DL/UA or part of AA alongside DL/UA and CO as an independent. NW could be acquired by AA, lose its right to reject a CO transaction, and then CO could merge with UA leaving DL out of the mix but I think you could bet that AA would not lose NW's right of refusal on CO's transactions.

[post="289934"][/post]​

UAL is owned lock, stock and barrel by the same major creditors that are backing Bethune/Continentals inevitable aquisition of United...

NWAC has the ability to block, if someone wanted to aquire Continental, but has NO power to block Continental from acquiring, just ask Bethune or Kellner, which they will, very sooon...

Also, unfortunatly, DAL has nothing to offer anyone, other than maybe Southwest, their entire domestic system is ravaged by lcc and they have virtually no o/d, they are in dire straits, even with more concessions or bk..

Here's what you can expect:

CAL/UAL Continental survives

AMR/NWAC American survives

SouthWest/Parts of DAL? Southwest survives

Misc lccs running for cover and consolidation....

 

[WorldTraveler]

bulscu,
show me the documentation where UAL has been reorganized and is now owned by creditors! You can't because it hasn't happened. UAL is still a publicly owned company.

You also don't seem to get the point that no one will sell United to CO without acquiring an ownership stake in the new company, which would trigger a change of control that NW could block.

You also discount that ATL is one of the top five markets in the US and DL controls 70+% of it. DL also controls 25% or more of traffic in each of the top NE business markets. DL has significant domestic value. It also is the largest US airline to Europe or the second, depending on the period examined. Though most of that position could be developed by another airline, it all has value right now.

The fallacy in your thinking is that you think LCCs will be running for cover. All you need is three big ones to be here for the longhaul and you will easily have that.

 

[Fly]

Why would the Continental name survive? United has much more worldwide presence, especially in Asia (the real jewel). What about seniority, how would they sort that out?

 

[boeing787]

ALPA merger clause...not DOH but career expectation. By the way NHBB...AMR ain't getting any of UAL routes to Asia. YOU CAN BANK on THAT.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Not saying any of this will happen. Highly unlikely I believe. But, for the sake of arguement, lets say it does. What line of logic dictates that AA would acquire UAL routes to Asia? Especially since DAL and UAL have almost ZERO overlap in that area? Doesn't make any sense at all.

What makes more sense would be AA's desire to thwart any such merger before it happens. If that doesn't work then they'd most likely see if there would be any way of acquiring NWA (unlikely, unless things really go south there).

What most likely would happen is that there'd be a re-shuffling of top carriers in the US with the combined UAL/DAL becoming the largest (not necessarily the best) carrier.

Again, I doubt there's much chance of this happening anytime soon, if ever. If you're talking mergers then I'd put money on a UAL/CAL merger as I believe they compliment eachother much better. Just my two cents.

Cheers,
Z B)

[post="289948"][/post]​

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Zman + Dave S.

Your both right, AA would NEVER wind up with UA anything !!

My "Bad".

NH/BB's

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

NHBB,
You never were one to be constained by facts, were you?

[post="289949"][/post]​

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WT,

Do you, for a second think that if UA grabbed up CO(who themselves would bring MORE Asia to UA) that AA would just stand by and watch DL and NW partner up ??

If you DO, you don't know #### about AA., or this industry, that you TRY to convince us, that you do !!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

NHBB, the "first" thing to happen would probably be AMR's unions running in with a voluntary paycut. That would be more in line with the AMR Unions past actions..... 🙄 😛

[post="290019"][/post]​

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bus,

You'll get NO arguement from ME, on "THAT" one.

NH/BB's

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Why would the Continental name survive? United has much more worldwide presence, especially in Asia (the real jewel). What about seniority, how would they sort that out?

[post="290131"][/post]​

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Fly,
I'm with you, UA name would "prevail"

NH/BB's

Ps,
Are you getting any "royalties" from the great Kids movie.... 'The March of the Penguins' ?? 🙄 🙄

 

[Bulscu]

bulscu,
show me the documentation where UAL has been reorganized and is now owned by creditors! You can't because it hasn't happened. UAL is still a publicly owned company.

You also don't seem to get the point that no one will sell United to CO without acquiring an ownership stake in the new company, which would trigger a change of control that NW could block.

You also discount that ATL is one of the top five markets in the US and DL controls 70+% of it. DL also controls 25% or more of traffic in each of the top NE business markets. DL has significant domestic value. It also is the largest US airline to Europe or the second, depending on the period examined. Though most of that position could be developed by another airline, it all has value right now.

The fallacy in your thinking is that you think LCCs will be running for cover. All you need is three big ones to be here for the longhaul and you will easily have that.

[post="290118"][/post]​

Look, this will be the last time I respond to you so your welcome to believe whatever you want, you'll see in time, very soon, what I'm saying is truth...

The major creditors, in essence, have the say of what happens to UAL, they have the overwhelming ability to 'influence' the outcome of this bankruptcy, irregardless of what the stockholders say or due, they will ultimately end up with nothing or close to nothing.

Once again, Northwest has NO SAY WHATSOEVER, on who Continental decides to purchase or otherwise, they only have the ability to nix someone else from buying Continental. Bethune, Kellner and a host of others have made this clear, consequently you see Bethune actively involved to this end...again, believe what you want...

Also, DAL was/is a great airline with great people, unfortunately, sadly, they don't have any or have very little o/d in their system, Atlanta is ravaged by low cost carriers and most of their system involves point to point or feed for traffic which is indefensivable aganist lcc, unlike the others having 'fortress hubs...

The lccs will inevitably crator because of the synergies created by Bethune and others between CAL and UAL, not to mention restructured costs of lease and other items currently being hammered out at not only UAL, but quietly happening at Continental, also the labor contracts are hybrid and will, in conjuction with the other items allow the New Continental and the New American the ability to ABSOLUTELY HAMMER ANY AND ALL COMERS, except Southwest, because of their SCOPE......the casms will be as low or low enough to K I L L the guys that helped fuel this whole metamorphisis......sorry for the spelling and good luck to whoever you work for inside or outside this business.... 😉