So you think that all this capacity is being maintained and they are all just waiting for work from AA? Then why doesnt AA send it out? We know they can, like the 727s they sent to Delta and the 747s they sent to TWA years ago. Sure China does some work for US Carriers but no US carrier that I know of flies 757s to China. Besides the Aviation market in China is expanding at a far greater rate than it is in the US, their ability to maintain their own growing fleet will put pressure on their 3P capacity. I've been there, have you? While you may think China has all those people and no shortage of workers they do have a shortage of people with the skillsets required for Aircraft Maintenence. In China men outnumber women by a wide margin, so the only men that will be sending on their genes will be those who have jobs that are considered prestigeous, even in China aircraft maintenance is not considered prestigeous. The likelyhood of finding a mate in that culture is diminished if one chooses to work with their hands, may as well work construction and at least be able to socialize. Luckily for us women here cant be as choosy!
Maybe they could fly it to Mexico but what makes you think they have a spot for our stuff? Aviation is expanding there more rapidly than here as well.
It's my understanding that Rockwell, as well as Panasonic hire A&Ps. In fact Panasonic hires A&Ps out of school with no experience for $26/hr while AA is offering $14.75 plus lic($5) with a two year experience requirement($17 in Flex locations).
When was it that line outnumbers the bases? While total line may have come pretty close to Tulsa the line never outnumbered the total of all the bases.
The pendulum has swung. A recent CNN article on Spartan Aviation in Tulsa a representative from AAR says they are trying to hire "10, 20 to 30 almost every week". Well the FAA only issues enough certs for around 3000 A&Ps a year and here we have a single employer who needs between 500 to 1500 a year. Up to half the total. AA is looking to add 900 this year. So between AAR and AA they could require nearly 3/4ths of the production for the industry. That leaves just 600 new mechanics for the thousands of other companies that hire A&Ps. With the surge of retirees we will likley see once the contract is settled that may not be enough for just AA . Even if AA doesnt grow they will likely need at least 500 mechanics a year just to make up for retirement driven attrition.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2011/03/09/foreman.bua.flight.school.cnn?hpt=T2
As I said before the huge amounts of OT mask the shortage*. I've been told that some were upset that I mentioned that if we all stopped working OT across the industry that hundreds , if not thousands of planes would be grounded, but I believe that to be the truth. Our willingness (even though it may be driven by necessity) to work OT and second jobs as A&Ps in the Aviation industry undermines the advantage we have and our ability to capitalize on it. AA alone would have to hire thousands more, even if they sent the work out the hours of A&P labor dont dissapear, they just get transferred. Working OT and second jobs has the net effect of artificially increasing the supply of mechanic labor. This opportunity may well be short lived, FAR 66 could rear its ugly head again. If we are going to capitalize on it and make gains we as a craft will have to make sacrifices in the near future, only this time the sacrifices wont be with the goal of making someone else better off (executive bonuses etc), it will be with the goal of making ourselves better off.
* FAA data indicates there are far more license holders than jobs however the FAA does not monitor whether holders are active or even alive, the shortage is purely based upon the fact that the consumers (Airlines etc) refuse to pay enough to motivate the inactive suppliers (A&P holders that no longer seek to work in the industry) to bring their product to this market. The willingness of currently active suppliers(A&Ps working in the industry) to increase production (work more hours) allows the consumers to keep the price they pay for labor low. Mechanics, if they want to see their wages increase need to do the same thing the airlines did to raise ticket prices-reduce production(capacity).
