If PSA gets 40 900's configured at 88 seats. That results in 3520 seats/day avail. or 1,267,000/yr. Average stage length 350miles??? or an extra 443,520,000 ASM. Anyone pull out what kind of money and such this can result in??/ .10 yield??? Just curious approx. what type of in flow of cash they are wanting with no pay raises, for an aircraft basically bringing in 30% more revenue.
1 - One small correction (or addition). Given your assumption of a 350 mile average stage length, your math is correct as far as it goes, which is for 1 segment per day 365 days a year. But you need to factor in the number of revenue flights or segments per day to get the total ASM's generated per year. Don't know what the number of segments per day would be, but if one assumes 6, that brings total annual ASM's to 2,698,080,000. That's right, nearly 2.7 BILLION new ASM's.
2 - Then you need RASM, which is determined by yield and load factor (or revenue divided by ASM's, if you should happen to have that). Without RASM, the "guesstimate" gets to be more and more "guess" and less "timate". Just for grins and giggles, let's assume a 10 cent RASM, instead of yield. The math gives a total revenue of $269,808,000, or $270 million per year for a round number.
3 - Of course, as any decent economists (or accountant) will tell you, revenue is only half the story. The other half is expenses (or CASM, which can be compared to RASM). That's where things get murky fast, since the CRJ-900's haven't been flying that long. Presumably, one could make something of an educated guess at CASM (or expenses) if one had the figures for the PSA CRJ-700/200's.
4 - Lacking any real CASM or expense numbers, let's look at this from a different angle - CASM differential due to pilot pay. Let's assume that all other employees make the same whether they're working on or in the CRJ-900 as they would the CRJ-700, since that's the way it works on mainline. So let's assume two scenerios - pilot pay is the same (#1) and pilot pay is $15,000 more per year (#2) with $10,000 for the captain and $5,000 for the F/O.
In scenerio #1, employee cost would be basically the same and would have no affect on CASM since the employees would be making exactly the same.
In scenerio #2, let's assume 5 crews per plane (5 captains and 5 F/O's) X the 40 planes equals 400 pilots (200 captains and 200 F/O's). That's $2 million in extra pay to captains (200 X $10,000) and $1 million in extra pay for the F/O's (200 X $5,000), for a total of $3 million in extra expenses. Divide the extra cost by the ASM's and you get an increase in CASM of 1.1 cents.
Jim
