Revenue Will NOT Be Back


Sep 24, 2002
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You can''t just assume that biz travel will rebound and that revenue will be back. This is a totally different economics dip than the early 1990s recession. Business travel HAS fundamentally changed. New technology is eliminating much of it. Look how well teleconferencing stocks are doing.
United cannot just bank its business plan on the premise that business travel will return. That is a VERY disturbing attitude.
United's business plan is NOT predicated on the blase attitude that business travel will eventually return to 1990's levels. However, the business plan does project revenue improvement going forward. This industry will eventually recover, along with the economy. That will drive up demand and industry unit revenue. But I agree with you that the days of business travelers paying large fares in large numbers are over. United realizes it, as I'm sure every other airline does.

Those days are over until next time. The industry will go thru dramactic changes in the next 2 years but when the dust settles it will look very much the same minus some of the old names. The airlines will gravitate back to what it is they do when the ecomomy affords them that opportunity. This reminds me of the good old 80's when everyone was saying the exact same things to the letter about Peoples Express and the dinasour mainline carriers. What got us into this situation is certainly unique in history but the end economic results are no different then if a deep recession had occurred naturally instead of by a bunch of murdering radicals.

True. But it's how we adapt to the changes taking place that will ultimately determine whether we have a seat when the music finally stops.