Second Qtr Results. Keep up the good work!

[737nCH11]

bigbus,

First of all, I don't work for an airline. I find the aviation industry fascinating, so I follow it closely.

I would like to point out a trend that I have noticed on this board: The UAL board is an upbeat and positive place. It is obvious that most UAL employees are pulling together to make their carrier succeed, and it shows in their improved on-time performance and their much improved passenger intent to repurchase surveys. The USAir board is dismal. Nothing but venting about how the employees are being screwed (which they are). I have doubts about their ability to survive as a stand-alone carrier. I have nothing against the employees; It's just business.

The only negative posters that I see on the UAL boards are:

1. Chip -- Always posts negative news about UAL. He has yet to post anything positive, so I believe that discredits him.
2. ITRADE-- I believe he is a U employee also. Generally negative comments.
3. bigbusdriver-- Once again, nothing positive to say. So he pretty much negates anything he posts.
4. whatkindoffreshhell-- Pretty much busts on UAL management (with good reason). Although I believe Tilton is the right man to turn UAL around.

I find it humorous that anytime a UAL employee comes here with good news numbers 1, 2, and 3 are quick to shoot it down. The best thing for you UAL folks to do is just ignore it and keep on doing whatever it is that is making your company thrive. In a couple of years these guys will be coming to you with resume in hand.

 

[Dave]

This is really disturbing watching the barbs get thrown around on this board.

The scary part is, our two airlines will soon be merged together, and we the workers will have to somehow find a way to work together....or face extinction.

 

[Taipan]

Semismallbusdrvr I got a interesting story for you about my esop stock,I cashed it out last week for $390 something dollars after taxes,this was once valued at $32,000.00, so I added a little and went out and bought a new Sony dv camcorder with it, now I tell everybody who asks about it,have you ever seen a $32,000.00 camcorder? well you are looking at one

 

[scot]

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On 8/11/2003 7:17:17 PM Fly wrote:

It's sooooo obvious that Chip and his little playmates at USAir own this board. Thank God there are so many decent people at USAir who are totally embarressed by this behavior. Of course, I'm typing this to let of steam, cuz they'll delete it too.

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Wrong. Some of the moderators actually have more to do than to sit here all day. Work, commitments, sleep. If someone had notified the moderators earlier (thank you) it would have been taken care of earlier. Its a little difficult to try to keep watch over all the boards since not all moderators are here 24/7. This is a warning to all to keep it on topic without the nasty comments or there will be action taken against the poster. Thank you.
​

 

[Fly]

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On 8/11/2003 1120 PM Dave wrote:

This is really disturbing watching the barbs get thrown around on this board.

The scary part is, our two airlines will soon be merged together, and we the workers will have to somehow find a way to work together....or face extinction.



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I used to think this was a possibility but no longer believe so. Unless United were able to buy US Air (which is definitely NOT going to happen) and staple all the people to the bottom, I think you would see an outright revolt by the United people. After the blood bath we took last time, there would be an outright revolt. This would be the proverbial "straw". We have lost way too much to allow this to happen. The last (and only) thing we have left is our seniority.....it won't be given away without a fight.

 

[Busdrvr]

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On 8/11/2003 7:07:37 PM Cosmo wrote:

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On 8/11/2003 314 PM Busdrvr wrote:

The second quarter report clearly stated that UAL had an 80 million operating PROFIT for the month of June (annualized that's around 1 billion). Load factor for June was approx 82%. therefore, OPERATING BELF was in the mid 70% range
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Busdrvr:

Actually, UA's press release said the company had an operating profit of about $20 million for June, not $80 million as you stated. Given UA's June load factor of just over 82%, that gives an operating BELF of roughly 80-81%. Still, it's a welcome bit of good news for UA.

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Oopps, i accidently released the july operating profit prematurely

 

[Segue]

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It's also important that unless you charge the same price for each and every ticket on all the routes, BELF is a DYNAMIC number. As jets fill up, the ticket price goes up, and BELF goes down. I'd expect operating BELF to be even lower for July.


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Last time I checked, the demand curve slopes downward! I.E. you have to charge less to get an incremental sale.

 

[Busdrvr]

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On 8/12/2003 4:34:45 PM Segue wrote:

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It's also important that unless you charge the same price for each and every ticket on all the routes, BELF is a DYNAMIC number. As jets fill up, the ticket price goes up, and BELF goes down. I'd expect operating BELF to be even lower for July.


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Last time I checked, the demand curve slopes downward! I.E. you have to charge less to get an incremental sale.

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Then you need to dust off the old text book.... I guess thats why all the airlines have been cutting back on capacity, to drive incremental revenue down. The STATIC demand curve slopes downward, however, the demand curve in april is NOT the demand curve in June and July. Those curves are to the right, while the supply curve is likely close to the same, month over month, at UAL. the yield programs at UAL, AMR, DAL, U, ect...reduces the ticket basket size for the cheaper fares as the tickets sell, based on how quickly they sale at each level.

 

[USA320Pilot]

737nCH11:
737nCH11 said: Chip -- Always posts negative news about UAL. He has yet to post anything positive, so I believe that discredits him.
Chip comments: 737, I believe your comment is a little unfair and "negative news" depends on an individual’s perspective. For example, if the UCT (if completed) permitted United to survive would that be negative or positive news? Throughout history many carriers have been forced to sell assets to reorganize, so this concept developed by the parties is not something new. Although most of the news items are negative, I have said that United has done a good job from the courts perspective of lowering employee costs and operationally the airline is running quit well.
However, most of the company news is negative such as the ATSB rejection, the Atlantic Coast Airlines/Dulles meltdown, the Denver negotiations, the inability to obtain exit financing, the DIP financing problem, SARS, five key airports seeking to evict United, and the creditor's committee suggesting to the company that the airline divest of the Dulles, Denver, and Los Angeles hubs and its Pacific Flights, the poor revenue environment, the projected drop in traffic this fall, and the huge pension funding shortfall. Furthermore, United continues to lose more money than any other carrier while the company operates under court protection and it doesn't pay all of its bills.
How can someone comment on any of these events without it being considered negative? In fact, these issues are significant hurdles that will be difficult to jump.
Regardless, yesterday US Airways management told employees that "the marketing partnership with United, which has grown to code sharing currently at 2,900 daily combined departures and weekly bookings that recently reached about 100,000 on US Airways. The United alliance will be worth $200 million annually when mature," US Airways said in a memo.

Presumably, from this observer’s perch, United is seeing the same type of traffic improvement and economic benefits from the alliance, which will boost the Chicago-based carrier's outlook.
In closing, I have repeatedly said I believe United will emerge, which is something some observers do not believe in light of Glenn Tilton's recent announcement that "tough decisions will have to be made."

Best regards,

Chip

 

[Segue]

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On 8/12/2003 4:52:41 PM Busdrvr wrote:

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On 8/12/2003 4:34:45 PM Segue wrote:

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It's also important that unless you charge the same price for each and every ticket on all the routes, BELF is a DYNAMIC number. As jets fill up, the ticket price goes up, and BELF goes down. I'd expect operating BELF to be even lower for July.


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Last time I checked, the demand curve slopes downward! I.E. you have to charge less to get an incremental sale.

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Then you need to dust off the old text book.... I guess thats why all the airlines have been cutting back on capacity, to drive incremental revenue down. The STATIC demand curve slopes downward, however, the demand curve in april is NOT the demand curve in June and July. Those curves are to the right, while the supply curve is likely close to the same, month over month, at UAL. the yield programs at UAL, AMR, DAL, U, ect...reduces the ticket basket size for the cheaper fares as the tickets sell, based on how quickly they sale at each level.

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Load factor and yield are inversely related. Until they find a magic way to raise both at the same time (wow, a money machine!), to increase one, you need to reduce the other. I don't expect a pilot to know that, but at least I hope that your RM folks do.

 

[Busdrvr]

"For example, if the UCT (if completed) permitted United to survive would that be negative or positive news?"

So if UAL had purchased perinial money loser U and it kept U in business (with what you consider a poor seniority integration), then that would have been good news? It would be far better for UAL to go away than to divest itself of its route network peicemeal, and it simply won't happen.

"Furthermore, United continues to lose more money than any other carrier while the company operates under court protection and it doesn't pay all of its bills."

Chip, why to you repeatedly post something you know is absolutely falses? Those "bills" UAL doesn't pay (then same ones U didn't pay) still make it to the income statement. They show up on the cash flow, and if you look at UAL cash flow, you'd see it has been going UP. How did U's cash flow go during BK? I seem to remember that was one of the reasons you left BK so quickly, you were running low on cash and the government had foolishly "prequalified" you for the loan based on faulty assumptions. BTW, all those things you posted are NOT bad news, and some of them are simply not true (inability to obtain exit financing? Dip problems? pulease)

"which is something some observers do not believe in light of Glenn Tilton's recent announcement that "tough decisions will have to be made.""

What observers are those Chip? did you expect Glenn to say, everything is peachy? What was Dave saying when you were in BK?

 

[Busdrvr]

"Load factor and yield are inversely related. Until they find a magic way to raise both at the same time (wow, a money machine!), to increase one, you need to reduce the other. I don't expect a pilot to know that, but at least I hope that your RM folks do."

Actually Segue, i have a BS in economics and an MBA. If I said your understanding of economics was weak, it'd be an understatement. Just so you understand a little bit of the hard data, UAL RASM is currently going up faster than the rest of the industry ans closing the gap. Your statement that "load factors and yield are inversely related is one of the most uneducated one's I've read to date. Lets look at an example. Let's say UAL once flew a 747-400 on a given route with a 50% load factor. they then switch to a 777 (less seats). load factor goes up given the same number of tickets sold. What happened to yield? Now lets look at another example. LH and UAL dominate the ORD-FRA market. They leave the same equipment on the route, however, more people like to travel during the summer to europe. Same supply of seats, higher demand for those seats. What does Segue think happens to average ticket price? A huge $59 ticket sale? UAL is NOT adding capacity YOY. If anything, they have been cutting back. The supply curve at UAL is moving to the left. UAL is seeing an increase in demand for it's tickets, the demand curve shifts to the right. Your mistake is that you are assuming movement along the same demand curve. That is incorrect.