Cosmo said:
IMHO, SAA will continue flying to JFK because of the local New York traffic base. I could also see them returning to MIA, perhaps thrice weekly, due to the relatively large South African population living there (at least according to MAH4546). But for connections to UA (and even some to AC), SAA will almost certainly fly to IAD. This also takes advantage of Washington's decent-sized local market to Africa, which IIRC is substantially bigger than those of PHL and CLT, and it might even be larger than ORD's. And I don't believe that the proximity of JFK and IAD (about 230 miles) is an issue since SAA would be using the two airports for largely different purposes.
Yes, Miami's South African population is one of the largest in the world, and the largest on this side of the hemisphere.
I think we will be seeing a combination of these services:
2x weekly JNB-MIA-JNB
2x weekly CPT-MIA-CPT
3x weekly JNB-SID-IAD-JNB
The key O&D markets between South Africa and US/Canada are:
Miami, New York City, Washington, San Francisco, Houston, Toronto, and Los Angeles.
NYC has it's own non-stops, and Star offers connections to all of those except Houston through Miami. IAD can provide other connections, and also has a fair amount of O&D. And, also too note, only airports in Florida are close enough to have round-trip non-stop services. IAD required a northbound non-stop, ORD would require stops both ways. Orlando and Nassau are also two popular vacation destinations for South Africans, and UA codeshare partner Gulfstream offers MIA-MCO/NAS.
Despite limited connections in Miami:
1) O&D traffic is more profitable
2) When someone is going as far as South Africa, double-connecting is not as big a deal, and it sure beats the only other option: via Europe (or GRU/EZE)
3) SAA has interline agreements with many airlines, and interlining is still popular, especially to a market like South Africa.
Also, side note, but Varig also will soon serve Africa. They start JNB service on 5 April 2004.
I am anxious to see what turns out of this. I have my fingers crossed that it means a return to Miami. I think it is likely. Atlanta, though, is a goner.