WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
- 21,709
- 10,721
did they have a countdown clock and other equally in-your-face events a year in advance?
In reality, DEN probably marks the largest and most rapid buildup of WN and it was fueled by WN's low hedges and the combined weak finances of UA and F9 at the time.
We could spend the next year talking about what might happen and citing articles from "experts" but there is current data to show that WN has at least 50% passenger share of the combined DAL/DFW market to airports it can currently serve. In the case of the original WN cities (states bordering Texas), WN has the lion's share of the market. When other cities like STL and MCI were added, WN obtained 50% market share, often in a year or less, and brought average fares down rapidly in the short term - not uncommon for any airline when new service is added. Fares rebounded later but there was a significant impact to AA's revenue in the short-term in those markets. Within a short-period of time, WN established itself as a very credible player in those markets on equal terms as AA, something that has not necessarily happened at other airports like HOU vs IAH.
Comparing the size of AA's operation at DFW and saying how much larger they are means nothing. WN has a higher percentage of local traffic and doesn't use RJs; they now have the 738 which has similar capacity to an AA 757.
WN doesn't have to replicate AA's route network at DFW. They can and likely will pick off the top 10 markets from DFW, add in WN's "hub citie's if they aren't in the top 10, and then start with between 3-5 flights/ market. WN has more than enough capacity to do that.
WA ends in October which is not a peak season anyway. By the time the summer of 2015 rolls around, WN will have a very good idea of how successful they can be with long haul domestic flying from DAL and which markets need to be added.
Anyone who underestimates WN's ability to win over the Metroplex' long-haul domestic market, to find the assets and means to maximize their impact in the market from day one, the impact of the end of the WA on AA, or the lengths that WN will go to show that there is every reason to remove the remaining restrictions on the WA in order to grow their operation at DAL is likely in for a very big surprise.
In reality, DEN probably marks the largest and most rapid buildup of WN and it was fueled by WN's low hedges and the combined weak finances of UA and F9 at the time.
We could spend the next year talking about what might happen and citing articles from "experts" but there is current data to show that WN has at least 50% passenger share of the combined DAL/DFW market to airports it can currently serve. In the case of the original WN cities (states bordering Texas), WN has the lion's share of the market. When other cities like STL and MCI were added, WN obtained 50% market share, often in a year or less, and brought average fares down rapidly in the short term - not uncommon for any airline when new service is added. Fares rebounded later but there was a significant impact to AA's revenue in the short-term in those markets. Within a short-period of time, WN established itself as a very credible player in those markets on equal terms as AA, something that has not necessarily happened at other airports like HOU vs IAH.
Comparing the size of AA's operation at DFW and saying how much larger they are means nothing. WN has a higher percentage of local traffic and doesn't use RJs; they now have the 738 which has similar capacity to an AA 757.
WN doesn't have to replicate AA's route network at DFW. They can and likely will pick off the top 10 markets from DFW, add in WN's "hub citie's if they aren't in the top 10, and then start with between 3-5 flights/ market. WN has more than enough capacity to do that.
WA ends in October which is not a peak season anyway. By the time the summer of 2015 rolls around, WN will have a very good idea of how successful they can be with long haul domestic flying from DAL and which markets need to be added.
Anyone who underestimates WN's ability to win over the Metroplex' long-haul domestic market, to find the assets and means to maximize their impact in the market from day one, the impact of the end of the WA on AA, or the lengths that WN will go to show that there is every reason to remove the remaining restrictions on the WA in order to grow their operation at DAL is likely in for a very big surprise.
