The 2011 Depression

[7days]

David Rosenberg: "It's Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression"

We just came off the weakest recovery on record despite the massive amounts of stimulus that the U.S. government has delivered in so many ways. That the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down to 2% already speaks volumes because the last time we were at these levels was back in December 2008 when the downturn was already 12 months old. A period like the one we have endured over the past six months when bank shares are down 30% and the 10- year note yield is down 130 basis points has never in the past foreshadowed anything very good coming down the pike. If market rates are at Japanese levels, or at 1930s levels, then it's time to start calling this for what it is: A modern day depression.

Look, that entire period from 1929-1941 saw several quarters of huge bungee-jump style GDP growth and countless tradable rallies in the stock market.

But that misses the point.

The point being that a depression, put simply, is a very long period of economic malaise and when the economy fails to respond in any meaningful or lasting way to government stimulus programs. A series of rolling recessions and modest recoveries over a multi-year period of general economic stagnation as the excesses from the prior asset and credit bubble are completely wrung out of the system. In baseball parlance, we are in the third inning of this current debt deleveraging ball game.

You know you're in a depression when interest rates go to zero and there is no revival in credit-sensitive spending.

The economy is in a depression when the banks are sitting on nearly $2 trillion of cash and yet there is no lending going onto the private sector. It's otherwise known as a 'liquidity trap'.

Depressions usually are caused by a bursting of an asset bubble and a contraction in credit, whereas plain-vanilla recessions are typically caused by inflation and excessive manufacturing inventories. You tell me which fits the bill today.

 

[delldude]

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Worst-case scenario’s closing fast: Occupy Wall Street growing. But no political power or allies yet. Feared yes, attacked by GOP proxy tea party. Soon the Occupation will explode into a new American Revolution.

When? A string of European bank collapses is dead ahead. And like the Arab Spring, they will trigger an economic disaster for American banks.

Andrew Milligan, head of Global Strategy at Standard Life Investments, discusses the implications for banks as European officials try to hammer out a solution to the sovereign debt crisis.

Yes, coming soon says Martin Weiss in his “7 Major Advance Warnings,” which is “bound to have a life-changing impact on nearly all investors in the U.S. and around the globe.” His new Weiss Ratings warnings are the “most important” in a 40-year career. The stress on Wall Street banks will force them back to Congress for more bailouts.

Warning eight: No new bailouts. That will push the economy into a deep recession.

Story

7 Major Warnings

 

[delldude]

Deja Vu?

Apologies, my crystal ball is out of cal.

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — “Facebook will become the poster child for the current social-media bubble,” warns economist Gary Shilling in his latest Forbes column, “just as Pets.com was for the dot-com bubble.” Yes, Wall Street is repeating the 2000 dot-com crash as today’s social-media bubble crashes and burns.

But the scariest fact is that America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich can’t even see the obvious link between the 2012 social-media bubble and the 2008 Wall Street credit bubble that nearly bankrupt our monetary system and forced Congress and the Fed into bailing out our too-big-to-manage banks to an estimated $29.7 trillion in cash, credits, cheap money loans and debt relief.
But, unfortunately, the banks still haven’t learned the lessons of history. Instead, they dug in their heels, spending hundreds of million on lobbyists, fighting all reform efforts, went back to business-as-usual, sabotaging America and ultimately themselves.
Déjà vu: here we are four years later. Again mired in another presidential election, right back where we were in the summer of 2008. In denial, trapped in lies and mean-spirited theatrics, ignoring warnings, blinded, obsessed about the smell of election victories no matter the cost, even if it triggers a recession.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-crash-is-dead-ahead-as-2008-is-forgotten-2012-07-31

 

[Dog Wonder]

What year is it?

 

[delldude]

What year is it?

Disclaimer: Apologies, my crystal ball is out of cal.

 

[Dog Wonder]

What is the other ball made of?

 

[eolesen]

It really is shades of the last dot com boom -- just look at the contracts UAL and DAL are agreeing to for their pilots. Same thing that happened in 1999 and 2000....

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Lets cut with the Bull $ already...
Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern: Charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38092759
from the DOL: A chart of unemployment since 1995 http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/07/08/a-chart-of-unemployment-since-1995/
Six Months to Go Until The Largest Tax Hikes in History:: http://atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171#

If anyone thinks rosy time are ahead they are delusional.

Game over. 🙁

Really?

 

[delldude]

Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why
 

 

 
Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
 

 

 
It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

In the interview for his latest blockbuster Aftershock, Wiedemer says the 90% drop in the stock market is “a worst-case scenario,” and the host quickly challenged this claim.

Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”
 
“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is the effect even if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265#ixzz2pMACIe25
Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!
 
 

 

[Dog Wonder]

Happy 2014.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Is it 2014?

How long have I been out?

 

[Dog Wonder]

Watch out. Falalalala will start asking about your wife.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Peter, arson is a serious crime. It's not like smuggling Oriental hookers into the country, in steel drums........~ Glenn Quagmire~

 

[delldude]

Is it 2014?

How long have I been out?

 
 
Don't you mean how long have you been savoring the koolaid?

 

[delldude]

Is it 2014?

How long have I been out?

 

 
Don't believe the happy talk coming out of the White House, Federal Reserve and Treasury Department when it comes to the real unemployment rate and the true “Misery Index.” Because, according to an influential Wall Street advisor, the figures are a fraud.
In a memo to clients provided to Secrets, David John Marotta calculates the actual unemployment rate of those not working at a sky-high 37.2 percent, not the 6.7 percent advertised by the Fed, and the Misery Index at over 14, not the 8 claimed by the government.
Marotta, who recently advised those worried about an imploding economy to get a gun, said that the government isn't being honest in how it calculates those out of the workforce or inflation, the two numbers used to get the Misery Index figure.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/wall-street-advisor-actual-unemployment-is-37.2-misery-index-worst-in-40-years/article/2542604