To The Powers That Be; Fwiw

diogenes

Veteran
Aug 22, 2002
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Let us talk about discontent in the ranks, and why that is so.

1. The WN factor - When fleet and customer services were negotiating their initial contracts, Gangwhal kept talking about WN's lower labor costs. When we provided him with WN's labor contracts, which showed higher compensation than U's proposals, that talk dried up. Now, Mr. Siegel is focusing on WN's CASM's. Let me stipulate: WN CASM's are lower than U's, and WN is a clear and present danger to U. However, it seems Mr. Siegel only talks about the labor side of CASM. CASM has been brilliantly discussed on this board; I will not go into the depths again. In summary, labor plays only a part of the C (total costs, of which labor is only a part) Available seats (which size and type of aircraft) and Miles (stage length) equation. It's worth repeating; management has sole initiative over most of the CASM equation. To be fair, some progress has been made. On the non-labor costs side, we have reduced fleet types and reduced the costs of aircraft leases, although as AOG N IT cogently points out, there are some steep ownership costs associated with Airbus. I imagine, under BK, facility costs took a similiar haircut. The Caribbean initiative is helpful, but I doubt will be a long-term factor. Cannot WN or JB service the Caribbean Basin? But all in all, employees are left with the impression that, in order to lower CASM, we will be asked or forced to shoulder the burden, while the rest of the CASM equation goes largely unchanged. Or in simpler terms, employees will subsidize a failed business plan.

2. Agents are opposed to further concessions than is contractually agreed to, because further concessions are ALREADY built into the contract, via MDA and Express. While a mainline jet, flown by mainline crews, and maintained by mainline mechanics, will fly into a station, the flight will be groundhandled by express personnel. There is virtually no end in sight to this phenomenon.

3. Look at U's metrics over the past 5 years. Despite the turmoil, employees have delivered a professional product to the customers. Jerry Ornstein has been quoted as saying pilots are overpaid, as he still fills up his training classes. I fear U has the same attitude - obviously, we are treating the employees too well, as they are still able to deliver the goods.

Gentlemen, I do not for a second think you are ignorant, incapable or incompetent. To the contrary, you know exactly what you are doing. I think the focus on CASM, and the focus on the 'silent majority' is a distractionary explanation as you execute the long-term plan. I suspect that plan to be to the detriment of many employees, so do not expect us to go quietly into that good night.

In the meanwhile, I will continue to provide the customer with a professional effort until the end comes, or I am proven wrong.
 
Diogenes,

Great post. If management thinks the so-called silent majority is with them, They will be in for the fight of their lives. Obviously no one is out there talking to the employees because everyone I talk to won't, and can't afford to give anything else.
Morale is already at an all-time low. Is this supposed to be a holiday booster? Amazing. The thing is, my wife went through this with TWA. She said until we tell them "NO" they will keep coming back for more. She was right.
The last vote was not a mandate for management. CWA approved theirs by a mere 5 votes. Their vote said it all: This is all you're getting. Why would we give more when they could't put $2billion to good use. What have they been doing? I see no marketing plan, no revenue generation plan, no plan to boost morale. The only thing they can do is cut. And I think your right. This could very well be their one and only plan.

crazyincanton
 
diogenes said:
as you execute the long-term plan. I suspect that plan to be to the detriment of many employees, so do not expect us to go quietly into that good night.
So...the long term plan in my view does not include the so-called highpriced employees. I don't see an airline that is serious about revenues, I hear a lot about cutting costs but not raising revenues. It looks to me that we are being groomed for something else, like a sale or merger or purchasing somebody but not a stand alone carrier.
 
PineyBob said:
Something just occurred to me.

If an SWA worker now in many/most cases earns more than a comparable US worker then a couple things have to be happening to cause the CASM/RASM gap with SWA. So my question(S) are:

Just how much of a cost disadvantage is the Hub & Spoke model versus point to point and why?

How much of the cost differential is due to antiquated work rules?

How much of the differential is due to the ratio of outsourced mtc versus in house mtc?


Of the 3 above possible reasons which offers the greatest opportunity for "Cost Takeouts" without further wage/benefit concessions?

IMO there are probably still to many employees to compete effectively on price alone.

But to my mind the "Overstaffing" is caused more by structural barriers then any union featherbedding. To my mind the company has shown a consistant inability to successfully integrate business units or respond rapidly to change. This latest go around seem to support my theory.
Pine:

The nail on the head is "how much of a cost disadvantage is the Hub & Spoke model versus point to point and why?" Everything else regarding cost is dependent upon this. Linear involves less labor, less time on the ground, less chance of misconnects and associated costs, even something as minor as less APU run time. Even using our current work rules, if we were linear we would be at or slightly above WN's costs RIGHT NOW.

DAL has recognized it thus Song came along. Using a larger jet they with more seats they are within 15% of JetBlue's costs per seat WITHOUT a pilot giveback. When that happens, they will be at or less than JetBlue. That is not my quote, that is directly from an interview with Mullin.

The key is that when a jet comes from the manufacturer everyone starts on the same field. When management starts operating that jet the creme rises to the top. DAL (and apparently UAL) have recongized the way to fight and beat the LCC's. Our brainstorms are just now starting to figure it out. Problem is, we don't trust our brainstorms anymore. Siegel has to go. Then we can make some money.

mr
 
PineyBob,

I've disagreed with some of your posts, and agreed with others. The above post is one I definitely agree with.

My take is that the hub/spoke is the biggest factor in Legacy vs. LCC CASM difference. Reason - the hub/spoke model increases direct operating costs per ASM of the airplanes then adds the less productive use of personnel , gates, and other equipment/facilities to that.

Employee productivity overall is not a contract issue. I know there are occasional gripes on these boards about the "sit time" in the crew pairings, but in my experience the "sit time" results in no extra pay for the trip. Yes, the crews would rather get their assigned flying done and get home, but it there is no additional cost to the company for having a crew sit a few hours it is not a productivity issue for the company. There are few if any restrictive work rules left other than the FAA limits which all airlines operate under.

Likewise for the ground employees - the hub/spoke system requires more people per airplane since more planes are on the ground at the same time. In the hub, the planes come and go in waves, with idle time between peaks. This idle time is unproductive but not the fault of the employee or their contract. (This is the basis for the high headcount per airplane argument that says we have too many people per airplane so we need to cut the "deadwood") I don't believe that there are many, it any, restrictive work rules left.

Outsourcing vs inhouse - outsourcing can save money. I'm sure Dave would like to outsource the entire airline. Mesa could operate the Boeings & Busses cheaper than mainline currently does. The same goes for the ground employees. Likewise for maintenance. By replacing effectively LCC wages of mainline with significantly lower wages of Mesa, the CASM could approach that of a high-cost LCC (LUV but not JBLU). In effect the very low pay would offset the higher costs of the hub/spoke operation (there's that hub/spoke being the prime problem again) As relates to MX outsourcing, there are costs that offset at least some of the savings. Airplanes have to be ferried to the mx facility - CLT to Alabama is an hour or more each way at something over $3000 per hour operating cost. Company personnel should be on hand to oversee the mx work - travel expenses, etc.

Not only is the hub/spoke model less efficient, U's is less efficient than other network carriers. Why? In PHL we have a major hub without the runways to make it work as efficiently as possible. Hence the delays (Philly Phactor) which cost money in fuel burn, crew pay, misconnected pax and bags, etc. In PIT there is the infastructure to have a major hub - the airport can handle more flights with less delays than PHL. We have the gates to handle those flights. But we underutilize the assets. Nothing is less efficient than paying for assets that aren't used. CLT is probably our most efficient hub - more flights than PHL with less delay.

Jim
 
PineyBob said:
OK then, one of the reasons for maintaining the hub &spoke concept is that we need to inclde the small cities like DUJ, LEB ect as well as the roughly 35 cities where US is the ONLY Commercial carrier.

How does the point to point concept impact these cities.

Also what is meant by a rolling hub versus a banking hub
1. Small cities would be bypassed in a point-to-point system. Or would only have limited schedules, much like the essential air service cities now have.

2. In the bank hub, all of the gates are filled then emptied in a 'rush'. The first flights in and out have little or no delays. The middle to back of the pack gets the worst. Connect times are 30-1:00. In a rolling system, as each gate is openned, another flight takes it place so that there is a more steady flow of flights. For the connecting traveller, this may result in a connection time of 2 hrs or so for some flights. As the traffic is spaced, in theory, ATC delays are no longer caused by the airline's arrival flow. If that is true, DFW should have data to prove it.
 
To all of you "Hard-sells" out there, go read BOEINGBOY's post:

Analyzing U-S Airways.

Are you in for an eye opening :eek:
 
Before, I talked about the downside of the hub & spoke system. PineyBob has mentioned the upside of the h & s system. Traditionally, smaller cities have only had access to the world thru a carriers hub. Erie, Harrisburg, Columbia, etc. can't support nonstop (point to point) service to LA, Dallas, Miami, London, Rome, and so on. There isn't enough traffic. per day (or even week) to any one of those cities. Those pax wanting to go to these places were carried to a hub where they connected to a flight going to their ultimate destination.

In the early days of hub & spoke flying, many of the smaller cities had only one carrier serving them, so the carrier could pretty much charge what the market would bear. Many network carriers had what were effectively "express" operations in that their smallest planes would be called RJ's today - BAC111's, F28's, etc.

As time passed, what used to be "commuter" carriers operating small 10-14 pax prop planes began using larger turboprops and feeding the network carriers under some formal arrangement. The express affiliates were born. Along with this, the smallest planes disappeared from the mainline fleets. Now two or more network carriers might serve these smaller cities, creating competition. A pax in Erie had a choice of network carriers to choose from. This resulted in fares from the "spoke" cities often being less than the fare to the same destination from the hub of either carrier. The decline of the revenue surplus generated by the hub & spoke system had began.

The rise of the LCC's is causing a new trend. As the LCC's serve more cities, more of the smaller cities are within reasonable driving distance of a LCC flight. The price sensitive pax are starting to drive 1, 2, even 3 hours to fly on a LCC. This puts further price pressure on the fares at these smaller cities.

Is the hub and spoke system dying a lingering death - probably not. As PineyBob & Flynomore say, many small cities would lose air service completely if it were not for the hub and spoke model. But the network carriers have to become more efficient and that is where ideas like the rolling hub come in. I seem to recall that when AMR started the rolling hub in DFW they said it gave them the equilivent of 2 extra airplanes at zero cost.
 
Diogenes....

Excellent post and analysis....I hope they are reading this in ccy...

This echoes many of my coworkers and my own attitude toward future
cuts.

Beyond that thought, I think I also read at one point that WN outsources
a huge percentage of their maintenance.

I, too, am entiredly disappointed with the results of the last plan. The employees cannot forget the six million dollar
bonuses which just had to be paid to keep management from abandoning
their jobs during bankruptcy.