UAL & CAL possibly merging

[goodgirl37]

When VA adds such places as Deadhorse, Adak, Bethel, Barrow, Kodiak, Gustavus, or Ketchikan to it's route map you can start worrying about AS...

Jim

I dont think that is going to happen, but tapping into Seattle will give Alaska a run for their money...

 

[BoeingBoy]

but tapping into Seattle will give Alaska a run for their money...

A good chunk of "their" (AS) money comes from intra-Alaska flights and flights connecting Alaska to destinations in the lower 48 and HI. So unless VA is going to enter that market (with service to points like I previously mentioned) they'll have little impact other than what any other carrier would have.

Jim

 

[brokenwrench]

Alaska will be in trouble soon with VA penetrating its routes.

Lets see here,
AK reporting a third quarter GAAP profit of $87.6 million.
VA...well you need to sift around there DOT 41 filings to find a loss. Big loss. Granted they have Uncle Branson back in London to keep sending good money after bad.

If the Alaska Airlines name goes away it will not be because of VA. It will be due to a merger with DL or maybe CO.

 

[shaka]

My question is if the two do merge what happens to Cleveland and Dulles?

O'hare is an absolute nightmare as is Newark in terms of congestion. Look at Forbes article on worst delayed airports in the world....Newark is in the top 10. I have experienced Newark over the last 10 years and 50% of the time I am delayed. It sucks beyond belief....I do anything to avoid that airport. Cleveland is much easier to connect in and out of with less congestion. I do not think you can shut down Cleveland and move everything to O'Hare...that would be an absolute disaster. Could you imagine O'hare in the winter and summer?

Dulles and Newark are also so close...what happens in that scenario? Both markets have strong O&D.


And lastly, you can forgot about any airline mergers being approved under the current administration. The last thing they want to see is more jobs being eliminated. This is a union friendly administration.

Thanks for your response

 

[Bear96]

Cleveland . . . gone (that won't make ORD more of a disaster than it already is).

EWR . . . O&D only (domestic and international), serving the huge NYC area market.

IAD . . . connecting hub.

 

[shaka]

Thanks for the comments Bear.


I have to disagree with you on your premise that O'Hare could not be more of a disaster
When do you think the merger would take place...if it were to happen?

THanks

 

[Bear96]

Thanks for the comments Bear.


I have to disagree with you on your premise that O'Hare could not be more of a disaster
When do you think the merger would take place...if it were to happen?

THanks

Of course ORD could be more of a disaster. I just don't think closing CLE as a conneting hub and consolidating connections through ORD / IAD will make that happen. One of ths points in merging is to reduce capacity. It is not like all of the flights currently operating through CLE with CO will be transferred to ORD. (Consider the old TW / STL hub. That has since disappeared under AA, although the thought at the time of the merger was that STL would be vital to AA to serve as some sort of seconday or overflow midwest hub.)

No one can guess when (or if) a merger will happen.

 

[JFK777]

Of course ORD could be more of a disaster. I just don't think closing CLE as a conneting hub and consolidating connections through ORD / IAD will make that happen. One of ths points in merging is to reduce capacity. It is not like all of the flights currently operating through CLE with CO will be transferred to ORD. (Consider the old TW / STL hub. That has since disappeared under AA, although the thought at the time of the merger was that STL would be vital to AA to serve as some sort of seconday or overflow midwest hub.)

No one can guess when (or if) a merger will happen.

The ST. Louis hub has been devastated by AA is the myth most ex-TWA people want to believe nad if I was one of them I would. But 9/11 came and so did a bad economy. Those two things are the reason ST. Louis has been reduced consistently by AA, not some evil Crandalism.

 

[Bear96]

The ST. Louis hub has been devastated by AA is the myth most ex-TWA people want to believe nad if I was one of them I would. But 9/11 came and so did a bad economy. Those two things are the reason ST. Louis has been reduced consistently by AA, not some evil Crandalism.

I don't completely disagree with you, but at the risk of topic drift, are you suggesting that if TWA were still around it would have also gotten rid of the STL hub by now because of 9/11 and the bad economy?

 

[FWAAA]

I don't completely disagree with you, but at the risk of topic drift, are you suggesting that if TWA were still around it would have also gotten rid of the STL hub by now because of 9/11 and the bad economy?

I think JFK777 is suggesting that if September 11 had never happened, and oil had not spiked throughout the decade before hitting $147/bbl in 2008, AA might still be flying a big schedule there. Perhaps not the same hub it operated in April, 2001, but more flights than today. Of course, had those two events not happened, US, UA, DL and NW would probably have escaped Ch 11 filings and airline employees would probably be making more money than they are today. JFK777 is objecting to those who overlook the external factors behind the STL situation and who prefer to ascribe blame to some evil AA intent to shut down TWA and the STL hub.

But those events (and many more) did happen, and STL is vastly different than it was 10 years ago as a result.

 

[MERV]

If CO/UA believe the combined company will bring investor value or a big savings to the company they'll do it. UA would get a better presences in Latin America and GUM. CO would gain a NRT and FRA HUB and a great presences in LHR/Europe/Asia/SYD. Domestic both gain from each other ORD, SFO, LAX , IAD, EWR, IAH, DEN and CLE but CLE not that much. HQ would be IAH more pro-business. US/UA would be hard to seller because of their D.C. area HUBs. They'll would reduce over lapping route capacity thats were the savings would mainly come from. Biggest problem is the debt they would have.

TW was purchase to capture market and reducing over lapping capacity but it end up as reducing over lapping capacity. STL was not going to end up as a hub for AA, If did end as hub it would be like CLE.

 

[Richard]

Please get back on topic of a possible UA/CO combination. Discuss TWA/AA/STL issues in the appropriate forum.
We're one away from getting this topic closed.

Thank you.

 

[shaka]

As mentioned in my earlier post...the current administration will make it very difficult for any mergers to get through DOJ.

I think there will be no activity for another 3 years.

 

[jimntx]

So, I'm confused. If you are sure that there will be no airline mergers for 3 years, why did you ask the question? You seem to already have the answer.

 

[shaka]

after further ananlysis...I have come to the conclusion that it will be very difficult for a proposed merger to be approved in this current administration.

Just had seen a lot of opinions presented on the board and did a little more research on the matter. The further research solidified my opinion.

Hope that reasoning did not confuse you.