US Airways – Delta Merger Update

USA320Pilot

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US Airways – Delta Merger Update: December 10, 2007

CNBC Interview with Doug Parker

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US Airways Ups offer for Delta (CNBC Video Presentation)

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LCC RAISES BID FOR DAL – Lehman Brothers Investment Report

We see LCC shares as no more than fairly valued in the absence of a transaction with potential upside on completion of a merger, so we see continued upside potential for LCC despite the revised terms. We believe key beneficiaries of this deal, which in our view are AAI and JBLU, remain appealing absent the transaction and the merits of a transaction from their perspective are not linked to LCC deal terms.

While there are disproportionate beneficiaries, we expect all the stocks to trade well today as the consolidation story is back on center stage.

* LCC raises bid for Delta from $4bn and 78mm shares to $5bn and 89.5mm shares. Revised terms expire on Feb 1 absent essential creditor support for commencement of due diligence, HSR filing, and postponement of the currently scheduled Feb. 7 hearing on Delta's disclosure statement.

* New deal terms very much in line with current bond prices which had advanced well beyond initial LCC deal terms. Offer value is $10.2bn based on last night's close to a comparable Delta stand-alone valuation, in our view, of $8-9.5bn.

* Pro Forma stock price target would likely change from $73 to $65-66 based on revised terms, still reasonable upside potential in our view, especially in the context of shares that are not presently overvalued. Earnings accretion would likely still be substantial.

* We view this offer as compelling from a creditor perspective, but antitrust is a source of uncertainty, in our view.

US Airways Raises Offer For Delta Air Lines

Offer Valued at $12.7 to 15.4 Billion and Set to Expire on February 1, 2007 Absent Creditor Support

January 10, 2007


**An analyst webcast will be held today at 9 a.m. EST/7 a.m. MST and employees are welcome to listen in. To do so, visit www.usairways.com, and click “About US>>Investor Relations>> Webcasts/Presentations/Updates.â€

US Airways Group, Inc. today announced that it has increased its offer to merge with Delta Air Lines, Inc. Under the revised proposal:

Delta’s unsecured creditors would receive $5.0 billion in cash and 89.5 million shares of US Airways stock.

When applying the same valuation methodology and assumptions as described in Delta’s Disclosure Statement, US Airways' advisor Citigroup estimates this new proposal will provide between $12.7 and 15.4 billion in value to Delta's unsecured creditors, which represents a significant premium over the $9.4 to 12.0 billion valuation that Delta places on its stand-alone plan.

Based on the closing price of US Airways stock as of Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2007, the new proposal has a current market value of approximately $10.2 billion.

The merger is expected to be accretive to US Airways’ earnings per share in the first full year after completion of the merger.

The increased offer is set to expire on Feb. 1, 2007 unless there is affirmative creditor support for commencement of due diligence, making the required filings under Hart-Scott-Rodino, as well as the postponement of Delta’s hearing on its Disclosure Statement scheduled for Feb. 7, 2007.

US Airways has committed financing from Citigroup and Morgan Stanley for the proposed transaction for $8.2 billion, representing $5.0 billion to fund the cash portion of the offer and $3.2 billion in refinancing existing obligations at both US Airways and Delta.

US Airways Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Doug Parker stated, “While our original proposal offered substantially more value to Delta's unsecured creditors than the Delta stand-alone plan, we are making this revised offer to eliminate any doubt that a merger with US Airways offers Delta's unsecured creditors significantly more value. Without the support of the creditors, our offer is set to expire on Feb. 1. It is time for this process to move forward. We continue to believe that this is the right time to create a better airline that provides more choice to consumers, increased job security for both airlines’ employees and generates more value for all of our stakeholders.â€

Consumers across the nation will benefit from greater choice and lower fares from the “New†Delta. Since the combination of America West and US Airways in 2005, US Airways has lowered leisure and business fares by up to 83 percent in about 1,000 markets. Every domestic destination served today by either US Airways or Delta will continue to be served by the New Delta, which will provide consumers across the nation access to a larger network that connects them to more people and places.

Employees also will benefit from working for a larger and more competitive airline. As US Airways has already announced, frontline employees of the New Delta will move to the higher cost structure of the combined airlines, and there will be no furloughs of frontline employees of either Delta or US Airways. The combination of US Airways and America West, which was accomplished without any involuntary mainline furloughs despite capacity reductions of 15 percent, demonstrates that a merger can be in the best interests of employees, not just shareholders.

“This is a transaction that makes sense for US Airways stockholders, Delta creditors, the employees and customers of both companies, and the communities that we serve,†said Parker.

The revised US Airways proposal retains the same conditions as the original offer and is conditioned on satisfactory completion of a due diligence investigation, which the Company believes can be completed expeditiously, approval by Delta’s Bankruptcy Court of a mutually agreeable plan of reorganization that would be predicated upon the merger, regulatory approvals, and the approval of the shareholders of US Airways.

Citigroup Corporate and Investment Banking is acting as financial advisor to US Airways, and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP is acting as primary legal counsel, with Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP as lead antitrust counsel to US Airways.

US Airways executives will be discussing the proposal with analysts and investors on a conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET / 7:00 a.m. MT today, Jan. 10, 2007. To access the conference call, please dial (866) 290-0880 (U.S. dial-in) or (913) 312-1229 (international dial-in) beginning at 8:45 a.m. ET / 6:45 a.m. MT and ask to be connected to the US Airways conference call (conference ID# 4318844). A replay of the call will be available until Jan. 12, 2007 by dialing 888-203-1112 (U.S. dial-in) or 719-457-0820 (international dial-in) (replay passcode # 4318844).

US Airways – Delta Merger Conference Call and PowerPoint Presentation

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Delta Air Lines Creditor Group Urges Company to Take Steps to Respond to Increased US Airways' Offer (Press Release)

The Unofficial Committee believes that it is in the best interests of Delta and its stakeholders for Delta to immediately take the following steps:

1. Provide reasonable and customary access for US Airways to perform its due diligence in a manner consistent with similar transactions.

2. Fully cooperate with US Airways to make the required filings under HSR.

3. Postpone Delta's Disclosure Statement hearing currently scheduled for February 7, 2007 to allow Delta to fully evaluate US Airways' proposal.

4. Include the active participation and input of the Unofficial Committee's advisors with respect to the US Airways' proposal and other strategic alternatives.

5. Desist from taking actions intended to deter other companies from proposing transactions with Delta that may result in greater creditor recoveries than under a stand-alone Chapter 11 plan.

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Delta creditor group urges response to US Airways

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WSJ: Northwest talking with Delta on deal

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US Airways Ups Offer for Delta Air Lines Almost 20 Percent to $10.3 Billion

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US Airways raises offer for Delta to $10.3 billon

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Airlines Jockey For Delta

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New Twists in Delta Chase

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US Airways May Shed Gates in Charlotte

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US Airways puts ball in creditors' court

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US Airways increases offer to rival - Carrier to delay a decision on where to place a new flight-operations control center

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Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
US Airways ups ante for Delta to $10.2 billion; Delta board backs standalone plan

NEW YORK (ATWOnline) - US Airways yesterday raised its takeover offer for bankrupt Delta Air Lines to $10.2 billion, promising Delta's unsecured creditors $5 billion in cash and 89.5 million shares of US stock, but the Delta board quickly gave a thumbs-down to the proposal, stating that "it does not address significant concerns...raised about the initial US Airways proposal and, in fact, would increase the debt burden of the combined company by yet another $1 billion."

Delta said previously that a merged airline would carry $23 billion in debt. US's first offer called for creditors to receive approximately $8.6 billion, including $4 billion in cash. Delta's standalone plan, filed after US Airways' first offer, proposes to repay 63%-80% of unsecured claims in new Delta common stock, valuing the reorganized airline at $9.4-$12 billion.

US Airways said the new offer will expire Feb. 1 "unless there is affirmative creditor support for commencement of due diligence." Chairman and CEO Doug Parker told analysts yesterday, "We've set the offer to expire in order to move this process forward, instill a sense of urgency."

Parker also confirmed that he met earlier this week with former Continental Airlines Chairman and CEO Gordon Bethune, who was hired by Delta's creditors' committee as an adviser.

"We would note that following Bethune's meeting with US Airways this week, [US Airways] immediately raised its offer," JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote yesterday, pointing out that Bethune has "long [been] a supporter of industry consolidation."

US Airways said it has lined up a combined $8.2 billion in financing from Citigroup and Morgan Stanley to fund the proposed transaction, including $5 billion to cover the cash portion and $3.2 billion to refinance existing obligations at both airlines.

With consolidation talk rampant, lawmakers are taking notice. The Senate Commerce and Transportation Committee said it will hold a hearing Jan. 24 on the "state of the airline industry," focusing on the potential impact of mergers.

Adding to the speculation, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that executives from Delta and Northwest Airlines have been meeting regularly in recent weeks to discuss a possible merger after both carriers exit Chapter 11 later this year.

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
US Airways sweetens offer for Delta by 20%

Whether the sweetened bid from US Airways will be enough to win the support of two-thirds of Delta's creditors isn't clear. But airline bond analyst Roger King at CreditSights, a credit research firm, said he's betting that more than a third of Delta's creditors will support the new US Airways bid. That's enough, he noted, to block Delta management's plan to emerge from Chapter 11 as an independent airline.

"Their stand-alone plan is dead-on-arrival as a result of this new offer from US Airways," King says.

That doesn't mean US Airways' richer offer will win the support of the two-thirds of Delta creditors needed to win the bidding war, he added. A third bidder — possibly Northwest, United or perhaps even a group of hedge funds, banks and private equity investors — could enter the picture, he said.

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Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
Does one really think there would be NO furloughs on the Delta side or Usairways side should this merger happen??? I notice its been said more than once by Doug.
 
Does one really think there would be NO furloughs on the Delta side or Usairways side should this merger happen??? I notice its been said more than once by Doug.

I think they're hoping that they'll be able to reduce headcount enough through attrition/buyouts and Delta people not being willing to relocate to Arizona.

I know I'd be very interested personally in taking a buyout and moving on to another company.
 
Debt load may be too high for new Delta.

Link


Does anyone happen to know the industry standard for debt/equity ratio?

Obviously, a DL/US would create additional debt... but, theoretically, DL is creating additional equity through the bankruptcy process. I don't think the additional assets will create enough equity to balance the additional debt load of the proposed US/DL deal; but I would be interest in knowing whether (and by how much) the deal would alter the D/E ratio beyond the traditional standard.
 
Hate to tell you this, but it is January, not December of 2007.

Keep up the good work, as you have posted the wrong date on several threads!!!!
 
700UW:

I made a mistake and then copied and pasted the mistake into another thread. I re-posted the link with the new date and I hope the Moderators eliminate the topic with incorrect date.

Thanks for noticing the problem and pointing out my error.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot