Washington Post - "the Math Flies"

Justme

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Feb 29, 2004
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The Math Flies
All the Numbers Add Down for the Nation's Low-Cost Carriers
By Keith L. Alexander
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 29, 2004; Page F01


The nation's low-cost carriers are profitable even as the venerable "legacy" airlines barely tread water. How can they make money while offering fares that are 40 to 70 percent lower? The reasons are many -- cost of labor is a big one -- but here are 10 major differences between the cheeky upstarts and the big boys.

1.3 million

That's the minimum number of potential annual airline passengers a city must offer before a low-cost carrier will consider it as a destination. Airline industry consultant Michael Boyd of the Denver-based Boyd Group says low-cost carriers avoid smaller cities and target only those areas where they can get the highest revenue. Airports within a 45-minute drive of such locations are sought out by the carriers.

Low-cost carriers, Boyd says, have no plans to take their large jets into such cities as Ithaca, N.Y., or Lubbock, Tex. "All these small communities want low-cost carriers, but they're more likely to get a moon launch than service from one of these airlines," he said.

84.6

That's the number of employees per aircraft at Southwest Airlines. And it's the figure the industry uses to measure employee productivity.

Compare that number with 116 employees per plane at United Airlines, a number the airline achieved last year during its bankruptcy reorganization. The United number had been 173 in 2002, said airline analyst Vaughn Cordle of Airline Forecasts.

Small wonder the so-called legacy airlines are trying to get that number down to get productivity up, Cordle says. The United reduction resulted in a savings of about $2 billion and boosted productivity by 33 percent.

2%

That's the percentage of ticket sales that JetBlue Airways makes through traditional travel agents. By contrast, travel agents sell 61.2 percent of US Airways tickets. The number is about 50 percent for American Airlines.

Selling airline tickets via the Internet, on an airline's own site or on a site like Expedia.com is the lowest-cost channel for an airline -- and that's where the majority of the low-cost carriers do most of their business. In fact, it costs an airline only about 1 percent of the ticket price to sell it online.

While legacy carriers have drastically reduced the commissions they pay travel agents, selling the traditional way remains the most costly method -- between 7 and 9 percent of ticket value. And the big carriers still offer some of the largest agents steep discounts in exchange for moving market share to that airline.

The legacy carriers are looking for ways to attract travelers to their sites by offering steeper discounts, bonus frequent-flier miles or other incentives.


Also, low-cost carriers such as Southwest were among the first to implement electronic ticketing to avoid the costs of printing and mailing. During the past two years or so, legacy carriers have expanded their use of electronic ticketing as well.

40%

That's the percentage of American Airlines passengers who connect to another flight to reach their final destination. The number is significant because routes that include connections are more expensive than direct, nonstop flights.

In general, the low-cost carriers have set up their schedules to focus on point-to-point flights. Southwest Airlines calculates that only 10 percent of its passengers connect to another flight to get where they're going, in large part because the airline focuses on flights to and from destination cities. In essence, the burden for any onward travel is on the passenger to arrange, not the low-cost carrier.

Nonstop, direct flights are cheaper for several reasons. First, because airline employees are paid by the hour and connecting flights take longer to get to a destination, there is extra pay for flight attendants and pilots. Also, connecting flights require more manpower, says American Airlines spokesman Tim Wagner. Remember, bags have to be loaded, then offloaded on the first leg, then reloaded and offloaded again on the final leg of each flight. Also, taxiing for each takeoff and landing burns more fuel than flight time does, Wagner said.

As they grow and add destinations, low-cost carriers such as Southwest and AirTran will offer more connections. And airline consultant Boyd says that as the number of connecting flights increases, so will any airline's costs. Also, of course, a limited number of flights means that a carrier such as JetBlue simply does not need as many employees as a larger airline does.

23 and 0

This is the number of U.S. cities and foreign countries that JetBlue Airways, the nation's 11th-largest carrier, serves. It's a far cry from the 109 cities and 23 foreign countries reached by the nation's second-largest airline, United. And even those large amounts exclude United's code-sharing alliances with other airlines.

By focusing their routes on U.S. flights, low-cost carriers avoid the costs associated with flying into foreign countries. These longer-distance flights require larger, more expensive aircraft. Also, the airline's workers at a foreign destination are governed by that country's labor rules, some of which, in Europe especially, restrict hours and call for generous benefits.

$215,000 a year

That's the average salary for a captain at Delta Air Lines. In contrast, captains at low-cost carrier AirTran earn, on average, $135,000 a year, although they also receive stock options.

Overall, pilots are the highest-paid labor group in any airline, and labor represents the biggest cost for a carrier. Salaries are often based on a pilot's seniority, which points up another cost advantage the small new airlines have over the legacy airlines. Delta's 7,500 pilots -- 3,500 of whom are captains, the highest rank -- range in seniority from five years to 35 years, said Delta spokeswoman Karen Miller. By contrast, the majority of low-cost carriers are less than about 10 years old. The average seniority for AirTran's entire work group is two years, said spokesman Tad Hutchinson. Four hundred fifty of AirTran's 850 pilots are captains.

As part of its drastic cost-cutting measures, Delta -- which lost about $3 billion during the past three years -- is trying to persuade its pilots union to agree to substantial cuts in their pay and benefits. Delta's pilots are among the highest-paid in the industry.


As seniority increases at low-cost carriers, so will salaries. Pilots at Southwest Airlines, which turns 33 this year, already rank among the highest-paid in the industry, attributable in large part to their seniority and their stock options.

$9.99 an hour

Of the industry average total compensation of $31.23 an hour, $21.24 represents wages and $9.99 goes to benefits, according to compensation consultants Watson Wyatt, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Bureau statistics show that in general industry, benefits put an employee's total compensation 38 percent above his or her wage base. In the airline sector, in general, benefits add 47 percent to salary.

Employee benefits obviously affect every company's bottom line, and the older airlines simply offer more of them. Delta, for instance, offers medical benefits and a 401(k) savings plan to its workers in addition to a traditional pension plan.

The low-cost carriers generally do not have traditional, defined-benefit pension plans, but most offer medical insurance and 401(k) plans, which are far cheaper than pensions, even when the company matches employee contributions with a contribution of its own.

0

The number of downtown ticket offices low-cost carriers such as Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran operate. US Airways alone has 13 such offices.

The majority of legacy carriers -- Delta, American, Continental and United -- operate these ticketing offices, where passengers can purchase tickets, make travel changes or just get information. US Airways said it costs about $2 million a year to operate the offices, including rent, personnel and other expenses. As part of its cost-cutting move, Northwest Airlines recently announced it would close all 25 of its ticketing offices by the end of March.

$21 an hour

This is the average base pay, excluding benefits, of one of US Airways' 1,930 telephone reservation agents. Before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, US Airways had 3,762 reservation agents.

The average pay for one of JetBlue Airways 700 reservation agents, by contrast, is $8.25 an hour. JetBlue's agents also receive benefit packages that include a 401(k) plan and medical insurance, but they work from home, saving the airline rent on a reservation center.

1

This is how many types of planes JetBlue flies -- the Airbus 320 jet, period. In 2005, however, the airline will begin taking delivery of 100-seat Embraer 190 regional jets as the airline begins flying into secondary markets.

Delta, on the other hand, flies 16 kinds of aircraft.

It's because, the legacy carriers explain, they fly longer routes and more transcontinental and international flights. Such long-haul travel as across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans calls for larger, more expensive planes. So the equipment is inherently costlier.

But, in addition, moving a pilot from one category of plane to another requires about eight weeks of training. That entails the cost of training the pilot as well as the cost of covering the pilot's existing route during training. Because the low-cost carriers have only one type of aircraft, they require little additional training and fewer arrangements because of that training.

//////end of article////////

I don't have any comments, other than to say hello as this is my first post.
 
Justme said:
84.6

That's the number of employees per aircraft at Southwest Airlines. And it's the figure the industry uses to measure employee productivity.

Compare that number with 116 employees per plane at United Airlines, a number the airline achieved last year during its bankruptcy reorganization. The United number had been 173 in 2002, said airline analyst Vaughn Cordle of Airline Forecasts.

--------------------------

Nonstop, direct flights are cheaper for several reasons. First, because airline employees are paid by the hour and connecting flights take longer to get to a destination, there is extra pay for flight attendants and pilots.
Not that I am trying to argue with the premise that LCCs are more efficient than the "traditional" airlines... but... these two things really stood out as silly.

First, comparing the number of employees per plane at an airline like WN vs. an airline like UA is misleading. The ONLY type of plane WN flies, the B737, is also UA's SMALLEST plane. So of course there will be more employees per plane at UA. A more accurate comparison would be number of employees per ASM.

Second, the stuff about nonstop flights necessarily leading to cheaper crew costs doesn't make sense to me. Crews are not paid for the time they are on the ground-- crews are not paid by duty hour (as the article implies), but rather flight hour. By this article's logic, the "majors" should be making gobs of money compared to WN since they offer coast-to-coast nonstops, while to go coast-to-coast on WN involves more than one segment on most itineraries. It also ignores the fact that WN has, on average, shorter stage lengths than many of the "HCCs," which would seem to be evidence against his premise.
 
$21 an hour

This is the average base pay, excluding benefits, of one of US Airways' 1,930 telephone reservation agents. Before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, US Airways had 3,762 reservation agents.

The average pay for one of JetBlue Airways 700 reservation agents, by contrast, is $8.25 an hour. JetBlue's agents also receive benefit packages that include a 401(k) plan and medical insurance, but they work from home, saving the airline rent on a reservation center.


This is inaccurate again too. How can you get an average base pay thats MORE than the topout scale to begin with? Now if he meant the majority of the US agents are making topout while the majority of the B6 agents are on starting scale, then I would agree, but these numbers are way off and lead me to question what other numbers might be incorrect.
Also, I'm sure there are MANY US agents who would jump at the chance to be able to work from home. This has been mentioned in the past as a cost savings measure to the company. Any reason it (too) hasnt been addressed?
 
Not to sound like John McLaughlin of "The McLaughlin Group"...but he...is...WRONG!!!!! At least in one area.

That's the minimum number of potential annual airline passengers a city must offer before a low-cost carrier will consider it as a destination. Airline industry consultant Michael Boyd of the Denver-based Boyd Group says low-cost carriers avoid smaller cities and target only those areas where they can get the highest revenue. Airports within a 45-minute drive of such locations are sought out by the carriers.

Low-cost carriers, Boyd says, have no plans to take their large jets into such cities as Ithaca, N.Y., or Lubbock, Tex. "All these small communities want low-cost carriers, but they're more likely to get a moon launch than service from one of these airlines," he said.

Last tiime I checked, which was about 3 minutes ago, WN flew big jets in and out of Lubbock, Texas. 14 times a day. Two nonstop to Austin, Two to Albuquerque, Eight to Dallas Love, One to El Paso continuing on out to the west coast, and once a day to Lost Wages.

14 times a day x 137 seats = about 1900 seats a day.

Last time I saw their boardings Lubbock generated between 35 and 40,000 passengers a month for WN. Which is a far cry from where Mr Boyd says a city has to be to get low fare service.

I can't gind the derned Texas Almanac or I would tell you the total pax count is at Lubbock...I think it was close to 600K per year. At any rate, the idea that a city can't get low fare service unless it will board 1.3 MM is nonsense and has no basis in fact. It might be true that airlines WANT a city to board 1.3 MM a year before they offer service to it, but people in hell want ice water too.

Analysts are all fine and good, and if they knew anything, they'd be dangerous.
 
Even with slightly inaccurate data, it does show more reasons than "you guys suck" or "your paid too much".

I can't stand having some idiot say "So, looks like Southwest is gonna take over Philly, huh? " with glee in thier voice (people seem to think losing your job at an airline is amusing, and a reason to tell a story about a lost bag or weather delay from the 1980s). This is the same person who'd be enraged to find no service to either London or Latrobe when US is gone.

Justme, Welcome aboard! :)
 
Light Years Posted on Feb 29 2004, 01:13 PM
can't stand having some idiot say "So, looks like Southwest is gonna take over Philly, huh? " with glee in thier voice (people seem to think losing your job at an airline is amusing

No kidding!! :angry: What is that about? In any other industry, people would be frightened for you but in this one, they seem to find it "entertaining". The really sad part is that the airline folks do it to each other as well. Look at all the speculation that transpires on these boards, for instance. It's sad :(
 
tadjr said:
$21 an hour

This is the average base pay, excluding benefits, of one of US Airways' 1,930 telephone reservation agents. Before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, US Airways had 3,762 reservation agents.

The average pay for one of JetBlue Airways 700 reservation agents, by contrast, is $8.25 an hour. JetBlue's agents also receive benefit packages that include a 401(k) plan and medical insurance, but they work from home, saving the airline rent on a reservation center.


This is inaccurate again too. How can you get an average base pay thats MORE than the topout scale to begin with? Now if he meant the majority of the US agents are making topout while the majority of the B6 agents are on starting scale, then I would agree, but these numbers are way off and lead me to question what other numbers might be incorrect.
Also, I'm sure there are MANY US agents who would jump at the chance to be able to work from home. This has been mentioned in the past as a cost savings measure to the company. Any reason it (too) hasnt been addressed?
Probably the highest seniority a Jet Blue agent is what, three years? I would be interested to know if a Jet Blue agent would be satisfied with a 9 an hour salary after 20 years or so on the job.
At home reservations may work well at Jet Blue but last face it how complicated can their calls get? They don't fly international, they don't interline, they don't codeshare. Do they even offer advance seats? Our reservation calls can be quite complicated, try reissuing a ticket marketed by United, traveling international, trying to upgrade, arranging for oxygen, trying to book an unacompanied minor, rebooking on OA on a flifo day, call back a schedule change, call back a credit denial, the list goes on and on on what USAirways reservations agent do that Jet Blue agents don't do or offer their customers. I may be wrong, but they may do little more than take their name and credit card. That may be a 9 dollar an hour job. But it isn't the same res job that a U res agent does. Our agents are more skilled than that and a lot more is expected of them.
 
Justme said:
That's the average salary for a captain at Delta Air Lines. In contrast, captains at low-cost carrier AirTran earn, on average, $135,000 a year, although they also receive stock options.
It's not fair to compare the average Delta captain pay with the average AirTran captain pay. Delta flys everything from a 737-200 (comparable in size to the 717) to a 777. Obvously captain pay on a 777 is going to be higher on a 777 than a 717. A fair comparison would be Delta 737-200 captain pay vs Airtran 717 captain pay. No doubt the Delta pay would still be higher, but it would be a fair comparison.
 
ELP_WN_Psgr said:
Last time I checked, which was about 3 minutes ago, WN flew big jets in and out of Lubbock, Texas. 14 times a day. Two nonstop to Austin, Two to Albuquerque, Eight to Dallas Love, One to El Paso continuing on out to the west coast, and once a day to Lost Wages.
I saw the same line and thought the same as you. Southwest has been flying there for a long time.

What they(I believe) meant to say was that Airtran is not going to start service to Lubbock from Atlanta anytime soon nor would JetBlue fly there from JFK any time soon.
 
I will clue you in on a little secret.

WN will inaugurate service in to any city where they can make a buck. It doesn't have to be 1.3MM passengers or any number like that. It has to be someplace they can make some money.

If and when WN gets a pretty good operation at PHL rolling....I think you might see them plop some service into some smaller places that could....say.....support 4 trips a day to BWI and 4 trips a day to PHL and maybe a couple to Chicago.

Rather than some mysterious 1.3 MM Passengers a year magical number.....I think the analyst would have been better off to make the threshhold a station that can support 10 737 frequencies to 3 separate stations with an average fare of $0.20 a mile (if less than 500 miles).
 
And what if SWA gest the ERJ 190? The SWA situation is by no means a static business model, they will change and adapt and test new markets and products in the future. They have plenty of money, so they can afford to make a few mistakes.
 
So they made a mistake with LBB. We know what was meant- LCCs do not serve international destinations (I dont mean Canada or Mexico, or Islands) and they do not serve smaller cities.

I for one will laugh at the publics reactions when thier "overpriced major airline hubs" close and are replaced with LCC service to a some cities in Florida and a handful of others.
 
EightySix said:
Probably the highest seniority a Jet Blue agent is what, three years? I would be interested to know if a Jet Blue agent would be satisfied with a 9 an hour salary after 20 years or so on the job.
At home reservations may work well at Jet Blue but last face it how complicated can their calls get? They don't fly international, they don't interline, they don't codeshare. Do they even offer advance seats? Our reservation calls can be quite complicated, try reissuing a ticket marketed by United, traveling international, trying to upgrade, arranging for oxygen, trying to book an unacompanied minor, rebooking on OA on a flifo day, call back a schedule change, call back a credit denial, the list goes on and on on what USAirways reservations agent do that Jet Blue agents don't do or offer their customers. I may be wrong, but they may do little more than take their name and credit card. That may be a 9 dollar an hour job. But it isn't the same res job that a U res agent does. Our agents are more skilled than that and a lot more is expected of them.


I certainly don't think anyone with half a Brain would stay at a 9.00 hour job for the rest of their career !!!

As for the at home Res...Yea great Idea but I know when I worked Outside sales in T/A days...I always had to go into the office to take care of reticketing, refunds etc... But simply BOOKING a Reservation... NO PROBLEM!!!!! ;)