Bob: I am not sure if you are confusing me with other posters or not, but I'll repeat what I said in my first post in this thread:
While I do believe the LCC's have a big impact on the pricing power of the legacies, that was never my argument. Rather I argued that some pretty basic economic theories are in play here... Among them, reduced discretionary income, and its affect on travel purchases (leisure travel is "discretionary" for most), and supply and demand in the market.
Well the fact is that travel is up, not down, load factors are higher, not lower so obviously the simple supply and demand explanation does not explain why with higher than normal load factors prices are low. Supply is less and demand is high. Now we can claim that demand is high because the price is low but the fact is that flying is only one part of the expense of travelling. People are not flying someplace just to turn around and fly right back.
It has been discussed by analysts and airline execs who know more than me, that there is too much capacity in the US airline market.
Yes, the same analysts and execs who made similar predictions in 1982 and 1992.
You have seemed very uninformed of economic theory in several posts... Sorry if I was condescending...
Now these two statements say "Just raise the fares". But again, the way the airlines will raise the fares is by reducing capacity and allowing supply and demand to re-adjust, becase, we know that fares, or the price of airline travel, is a function of supply and demand, not just the whim of Herb Kelleher.
Your assumption appears to be that every seat must be sold on evvery flight in order to raise prices, again, you are trying to aplly a basic formula where there are more complex forces at work. I still maintain that if a trip is sold out, or even 70% sold $10 to $20 would not have made a difference as far as the load but would change the airlines bottom line.
However, I have gone on to argue that there are a few problems with adjusting supply... Such as, the airline industry does not have a rational contraction method. The airline industry contracts by everyone growing too much, and then one or two companies have catastrophic failures (i.e. bankruptcy/liquidation).
Or aquisition. While there are cyclical trends the overall trend over the last 70 years has been continued growth.
Furthermore, I have gone on to discuss that should the industry find a way to contract, then the resulting higher prices may further deteriorate demand. For example, if the $99 transcons were no longer available, some people would not demand travel services. In fact, theorized that the airlines are concerned that there would be a steep drop in demand caused by any increase in price and the lack of growth in discretionary spending.
I dispute that theory in as far as that there would be a steep drop in demand with "any" increase. Especially with modest increases because air travel would still be an exceptional value in both cost and time. A $99 transon , thats basically what it costs to take the family out to dinner. Even if the fare went to $125 or $150 it would still be a bargain, less than a day at Disneyland.
Also, we know that reductions in capacity means increases in CASM, outside of an airline completely ceasing service. What this means, is that even if prices rise, some airlines might
lose more money than they are currently, because demand could fall faster than supply, and costs increase.
Part of that is due to the fact that as airlines shrink they let their cheapest workers go first. CASMs have steadily decreased in both real and adjusted terms over the years.
I also discussed the "commoditization" (if thats a word) of airline seats... By noting that some high-end travel services, like luxury hotel rooms, still attract a market, but demand for "high-end" airplane seats seems to be disappearing. Even folks who sit in first class cabins, domestically anyway, don't pay for it! They use their miles or corporate relationships, or whatever to get there for a reduced price or free.
Not really, the "miles" brought income into the company.
Your response to this was to attack the reliability of the LCC's:
I think it was a fair enough question. Look at the reputation that Peoples Express had before dissapearing.
Next, you begin to attack the travel industry, and claim that airlines and their employees are subsudizing the profits in other parts of the aviation and travel industries.
Well we are.
But, you resist the fact that despite this, some companies are able to create a profit inspite of the soaring fuel costs and this subsidization.
Oh yea, who? Dont say SWA, because they are not a LCC.
And you further call for the unions to "shut the whole thing down":
When you are asked by other posters what benefit "shutting the whole thing down" is, you struggle for an answer which is essentially revenge:
Not revenge, defense.
You made a call for the following:
Well, since the government got out of the business of regulating the markets which airlines are allowed to fly and which they are not, most other folks took that to mean "re-regulation", which it would be. And several posters discussed the negative economic predictions which would probably occur. While I have not stated it, as far as I can recall, there are very few mergers which the fed's opposed, UAL-USAir being one. However, the feds have generally allowed consolidation to occur, and I believe will continue to. 9/11/01 has thrown that all off for a few years, but consolidation of legacies is likely to continue soon. Of course, sometimes consolidation is in the form of liquidation, not mergers.
Furthermore you "exposed my hypocracy" of "free market" for employees and "protection" for consumers.
"Your" hypocrisy? I believe I said "the" hypocrisy, unless of course you feel that the statement applies to the way that you feel.
So, I guess employees do not get "protection" from unions, unemployment insurance, OSHA, etc?
Obvoisly you are unaware as to how much we have lost over the years. Go see the thread on Mechanics Wages vs CPI for a start.
I, in fact, I agreed with you that there is a better way to handle airline employee relations than the RLA.
Okay, but you didnt say what it was.
Thus far through this whole debate, you have not made one argument on the basis of economics. In fact, you stated that the "conclusion of competition is a monopoly," which is factually inaccurate.
Ok, Ill restate it , the conclusion of competition is victory, which for a corporation is monopoly.
Then, you sited an example of the railroads, where the "conclusion of competition" was what is was supposed to be, a very low-profit/break-even commoditized market.
Thats because of government regulation and the fact that technology has introduced competion in the form of other modes of transport.
In the beginning, you argued for increased fares. Then you argued for either consolidation or re-regulation. Now you seem to be arguing for employee rights. All of these things, to me, sound like, "I'm a bitter airline employee".
So I am not sure what you are arguing. Do you think airlines can just raise fares? Fine. Tell me why.
I already have, several reasons including high load factors and the fact that the cost airfares are absurdly low, its cheaper than driving.
I've already disagreed with that notion in the current environment, and posted why I think so extensively. Do you want to argue for greater employee rights, such as an unimpeded ability to strike? Fine, do it, although its not the topic of this thread.
Do you want to argue for re-regulation? Fine. Tell me what good it will do for the airlines, for the employees, and for the national economy.
As you stated, its not the subject of this thread. The subject of the thread was "Why not just raise fares?" And I say with record high load factors, why not? So far we have seen where one airline raises fares and others do not follow, but we have not seen where the airline that did raise fares lost market share or if what they did lose offset the increased revenue. I feel that with high load factors they can raise fares, especially on routes where a low-balling competitor is not present. Once again, as we see in this discusion, the whole premise is built around a simplification that does not reflect reality, each fare to each city has many different variables, how many competitors, how much demand, time of day etc.All these factors affect the price.[post="230991"][/post]