Will Alpa And Management Reach An Agreement?

[Vikedog64]

Alright kids, do any of you think these two sides will reach an agreement to avoid BK? Jerry will get the 30% paycut either voluntary or thru the courts. I, as well as many of my peers are getting quite irritated with the game being played. Jerry holds all the cards..I am not sure what hand ALPA's playing. Any thoughts? :down:

 

[WorldTraveler]

ALPA holds no cards except for the timing and the venue in which the costs will be reduced. Delta tried to play nice months ago and the pilots continually dragged their feet. Now, DL is backed against the wall and that is exactly where Jerry knew he had to get ALPA in order to get their attention. Delta holds the cards and Jerry will get what he wants or the pilots will fork over much more than what they have been asked so far. The irony is that if DALPA had given Jerry what he'd asked for months ago, the amount would have been much smaller. Now that they have dilly-dallied around, DL is completely justified in asking for 35% plus major changes to future retirement benefits.
And Delta will not be writing a boatload retirement checks at the end of this month; either a pilot agreement is in hand BEFORE the end of the month or DL will file for chapter 11 to make sure there are no more checks written. It's rather simple.

I ran into a DL pilot's (738 Capt) wife and his family at a restaurant last night and she said XXX and his his fellow pilots are all saying "take as much money as you need to turn the company around but don't mess with my pension." Suddently DL has found the sweet spot that will get DALPA moving and they aren't going to let off the pressure until they get a deal - for the full billion including changes to future retirement benefits.

Lest you think the pilots are the only ones about the get screwed, have look at the debt exchange DL just floated. If you hold Delta unsecured debt, partucularly maturing several years out, you either get about 30 cents on the dollar now or the very real prospect of nothing in bankruptcy. I may be wrong but I can bet many of those debt holders will take the safer risk.

It's a tough game but DL is in the driver's seat and it will get what it wants or the parties will pay a much higher price in a few short weeks. Rationality says no one will let DAL go there given the huge doubts about US' future right now. DAL is taking a huge gamble but they will probably achieve in a couple weeks outside of bankruptcy what UAL has been unable to achieve in nearly two years inside of bankruptcy.

Yes, VikeDog, he with the cheapest costs wins. You do realize that by my calculations, DL will have the lowest network carrier costs by a fairly wide margin (low 9s if I'm correct) if they successfully restructure outside of bankruptcy. There will be some network carriers falling if DL achieves those kind of costs and DL decides they want to "acquire" some of those carriers passengers.

 

[luv2fly]

Alright kids, do any of you think these two sides will reach an agreement to avoid BK? Jerry will get the 30% paycut either voluntary or thru the courts. I, as well as many of my peers are getting quite irritated with the game being played. Jerry holds all the cards..I am not sure what hand ALPA's playing. Any thoughts? :down:

[post="180621"][/post]​

He will have to get it through the courts. BK is coming regardless of a pilot deal. Prepare yourself for it. The pilot concessions mean nothing unless there is a complete restructuring of our debt. And your 30% is a lowball figure. The proposed paycut is 35% with and additional 10-15% in concessions and benefits.
Right now there is a 300 million dollar difference in the "hands". I don't see a deal happening soon enough to stave off BK.

 

[Vikedog64]

He will have to get it through the courts. BK is coming regardless of a pilot deal. Prepare yourself for it. The pilot concessions mean nothing unless there is a complete restructuring of our debt. And your 30% is a lowball figure. The proposed paycut is 35% with and additional 10-15% in concessions and benefits.
Right now there is a 300 million dollar difference in the "hands". I don't see a deal happening soon enough to stave off BK.

[post="180720"][/post]​

Do you not think the creditors are watching what is going on? Refinancing debt and pilot concessions have to happen if we are to avoid BK, but the creditors are not going to make the first move. Do you agree?

 

[Vikedog64]

ALPA holds no cards except for the timing and the venue in which the costs will be reduced. Delta tried to play nice months ago and the pilots continually dragged their feet. Now, DL is backed against the wall and that is exactly where Jerry knew he had to get ALPA in order to get their attention. Delta holds the cards and Jerry will get what he wants or the pilots will fork over much more than what they have been asked so far. The irony is that if DALPA had given Jerry what he'd asked for months ago, the amount would have been much smaller. Now that they have dilly-dallied around, DL is completely justified in asking for 35% plus major changes to future retirement benefits.
And Delta will not be writing a boatload retirement checks at the end of this month; either a pilot agreement is in hand BEFORE the end of the month or DL will file for chapter 11 to make sure there are no more checks written. It's rather simple.

I ran into a DL pilot's (738 Capt) wife and his family at a restaurant last night and she said XXX and his his fellow pilots are all saying "take as much money as you need to turn the company around but don't mess with my pension." Suddently DL has found the sweet spot that will get DALPA moving and they aren't going to let off the pressure until they get a deal - for the full billion including changes to future retirement benefits.

Lest you think the pilots are the only ones about the get screwed, have look at the debt exchange DL just floated. If you hold Delta unsecured debt, partucularly maturing several years out, you either get about 30 cents on the dollar now or the very real prospect of nothing in bankruptcy. I may be wrong but I can bet many of those debt holders will take the safer risk.

It's a tough game but DL is in the driver's seat and it will get what it wants or the parties will pay a much higher price in a few short weeks. Rationality says no one will let DAL go there given the huge doubts about US' future right now. DAL is taking a huge gamble but they will probably achieve in a couple weeks outside of bankruptcy what UAL has been unable to achieve in nearly two years inside of bankruptcy.

Yes, VikeDog, he with the cheapest costs wins. You do realize that by my calculations, DL will have the lowest network carrier costs by a fairly wide margin (low 9s if I'm correct) if they successfully restructure outside of bankruptcy. There will be some network carriers falling if DL achieves those kind of costs and DL decides they want to "acquire" some of those carriers passengers.

[post="180668"][/post]​

As always World, thanks for the informative response..

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Alright kids, do any of you think these two sides will reach an agreement to avoid BK? Jerry will get the 30% paycut either voluntary or thru the courts. I, as well as many of my peers are getting quite irritated with the game being played. Jerry holds all the cards..I am not sure what hand ALPA's playing. Any thoughts? :down:

[post="180621"][/post]​

================================================

Yes Vikedog64, I have a response.

What if DALPA, makes it CLEAR, that if Jerry does NOT negotiate in good faith IN BK-11(where "EVERYBODY, and their brother" knows Jerry is headin') that they WILL STRIKE him ???

How do you think the DL/BOD's would react to THAT valid threat ?????????????

NH/BB's

 

[DalMD88]

I think Worldtraveler has hit it.There will be a deal with the pilots and creditors at the eleventh hour. They all have too much to lose in Chapt 11. Jerry does have the upper hand in this poker game and he knows it.

 

[luv2fly]

Do you not think the creditors are watching what is going on? Refinancing debt and pilot concessions have to happen if we are to avoid BK, but the creditors are not going to make the first move. Do you agree?

[post="180784"][/post]​

I agree that the creditors are watching. I also see that DL has now twice failed in its attempts to get the creditors to talk. Giving ultimatums on timelines in not a good way to get a deal done in respect to the creditors. IMO, it is too late. I would love to be wrong.

 

[luv2fly]

Delta tried to play nice months ago and the pilots continually dragged their feet

I don't think so. ALPA negotiators sat ready to negotiate for months and made public statements as to such. The company simply took a take it or leave it approach. ALPA also made it clear that any concessionary agreement would have to include some assurances to which DL did not even respond until recently.


And Delta will not be writing a boatload retirement checks at the end of this month; either a pilot agreement is in hand BEFORE the end of the month or DL will file for chapter 11 to make sure there are no more checks written. It's rather simple.

You are right. It is that simple. DL will have to file for BK if that is the case. Any agreement on retirement would be subject to membership ratification as per the MEC resolution. Being the 16th of September already,and no deal in hand, I would say those chances are slim.
BTW, there are only 40 or 50 early outs for October as of right now. Not exactly a mass exodus. Jerry's statement about BK will only serve to drive more pilots towards an early exit. Meanwhile we have roughly 900 pilots on furlough that I am sure would love to come help out. Too bad we laid off most of our training department and have leased out simulator time to other airlines.

DAL is taking a huge gamble but they will probably achieve in a couple weeks outside of bankruptcy what UAL has been unable to achieve in nearly two years inside of bankruptcy.

I don't share your optimism.

 

[WNrforlife]

Delta tried to play nice months ago and the pilots continually dragged their feet

I don't think so. ALPA negotiators sat ready to negotiate for months and made public statements as to such. The company simply took a take it or leave it approach. ALPA also made it clear that any concessionary agreement would have to include some assurances to which DL did not even respond until recently.


Trouble is, ALPA treated it as if they were in section 6 negotiations, not an airline fighting for its life. They wanted to hem & haw and balk at what the company was demanding from them.

 

[luv2fly]

Yes, 700+million in annual concessions qualifies as "hem & haw".

 

[WNrforlife]

Yes, 700+million in annual concessions qualifies as "hem & haw".

[post="180902"][/post]​

Too little, too late

 

[LaBradford22]

================================================

Yes Vikedog64, I have a response.

What if DALPA, makes it CLEAR, that if Jerry does NOT negotiate in good faith IN BK-11(where "EVERYBODY, and their brother" knows Jerry is headin') that they WILL STRIKE him ???

How do you think the DL/BOD's would react to THAT valid threat ?????????????

NH/BB's

[post="180850"][/post]​

Do you really think Delta pilots are ready to kill a company that pays them six-figure salaries for doing something that most of them enjoy doing?

I don't think Chapter 11 is a foregone conclusion at Delta - at least, not yet. But a deal with ALPA needs to be in hand pretty quickly, or it will be.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DAL's SEC filing serves to both make it clear to the pilots that there will be a restructuring of debt; this debt restructuring effort should be more successful given that it is an attempt to exchange unsecured debt for secured debt although at fractions on a dollar, esp. for terms several years out.

Plz, NHBB. What union would be STUPID enough to strike any airline at this point. Given bankruptcy is a real possibility anyway, all DL has to do is go into BK, trash the pilot contract, and rehire any one of the thousands of pilots who are on the street right now. Sorry, but the labor market has clearly turned in favor of management now and they are going to milk it for all it's worth.

luv2fly,
I think you are dead on with respect to the size of the concessions AND that will be enough to more than turn Delta around and give DL the lowest costs in the legacy industry with which it can solidify its position in the east and start taking chunks of competitors' hides out west and overseas.

 

[TheDog2004]

DALPA leadership is not interested in negotiating with Delta, but is interested in falling on the sword for the sake of all pilots in order to be 'martyrs to the profession'. They don't care who gets hurt. Malone will be rewarded with a nice position at ALPA national for doing so.

Crazy people are in charge over there, and they should be committed if they don't get arrested first.