I am a paid subscriber to
Plane Business Banter, a newsletter about airline financials edited by Holly Hegeman. In the first years of this decade Holly also hosted a BB on which many current USAv posters were active and
eolesen was the Moderator. When the level of strife caused Holly to shut it down, we were invited here.
I hope it is ‘fair use’ (or if not I will be forgiven) for lifting from today’s newsletter comments Holly reported were made last week by Gerard Arpey at an internal AA meeting.
"Many of the facts are on our side, because trying to change alliances in US partners in the middle of a lot of stress, would certainly create a lot of friction costs in terms of lost revenue and cost to change IT systems, etc. and it would certainly present a lot of regulatory risk, since Delta is very dominant through Northwest in Japan, and United is very dominant, and we're not, in an Open Skies environment we could likely get immunity with JAL. United would likely get immunity with ANA. Delta already has a big hub at Narita. So, what you would end up with is a very competitive landscape if that were the outcome.
“If JAL were to change horses, we would certainly argue that they might not be allowed to even code-share, let alone have immunity with the dominant carrier in Narita."
Holly “translated†the bolded words as a "veiled" threat to JAL: “
JAL, if you want to change alliances and team up with Delta, you just wait and see the fight we are going to put up against you if you attempt to set up a codeshare agreement, much less immunity.â€
In today’s political climate I am sure that such an alliance approval could drag out as long as has the AA/BA alliance. IMO, JAL/DAL 'ain't gonna happen'!