4th Quarter Loss

[justaumechanic]

could be out of a job....

But if we survive where will JBLU cut to regain their status as a low cost carrier?....

[post="242781"][/post]​

Lots of If's.. Bottom line, you will be out of a job by summer..

JetBlue does not need to look for cuts, they already have the low costs. Your
outfit on the other hand needs to cut more.. Today would be a good start.

 

[Hopeful]

I knew B6 would make a profit!  Way to go BLUE!!!!  Great accomplishment in these times to be running in the black.

[post="242893"][/post]​

But look at this way, profits did fall mainly because of fuel prices and also excess capacity. True, a small profit is better than a loss any day. But when you consider JetBlues's success as a low cost carrier in just five years being eclipsed by down profits, you have to wonder what happens when fuel finds a steady $50 plus a barrel. Southwest, who has hedged the most fuel even saw their profits shrink. What happens when their hedging expires?

I think you will begin to see some ticket increases. We at the legacy carriers are getting raped to compete with the LCC's. But if the LCC's are beginning to feel the effects of fuel and excess capacity, how can you not raise fares?

 

[Dizel8]

"But if the LCC's are beginning to feel the effects of fuel and excess capacity, how can you not raise fares"?

How much higher than DAL would you like jetblue to be, I believe they said in the conference call, that jetblue prices are higher than DAL to the tune of 22% on certain segments.

 

[Hopeful]

"But if the LCC's are beginning to feel the effects of fuel and excess capacity, how can you not raise fares"?

How much higher than DAL would you like jetblue to be, I believe they said in the conference call, that jetblue prices are higher than DAL to the tune of 22% on certain segments.

[post="243015"][/post]​

May be true. But the point I was trying to make is that fares have hit rock bottom when even the LCC's are starting to feel the effects. Unless a new low cost carrier starts up where employees volunteer without pay and all the fuel is donated, I can't see any carrier not responding by raising fares.

 

[Dizel8]

I do not think fares will go up any time soon, I think this is an attempt at a shakeout. Not that I think anyone will disappear.

The current crop of LCCs have to much money for the Vanguard/Legend tactics to work in short term and the biggest, SWA, is unbeatable.

DAL new low fares will put the hurt on a lot of companies bottom line, I would even venture a guess and say DAL will see a downside to it, yet all the airlines have pretty much matched, have to maintain that marketshare.

We live in interesting times.

 

[mweiss]

I don't think it's an attempt at a shakeout. WN, because of some fortuitous hedging, has a maximum profit price that happens to be borderline for the other LCCs, and disastrous for the legacies. WN doesn't really focus on shaking out the industry; they never have had the need for it.

You're absolutely on target about your comparison of today's LCCs against the upstarts of the 80s and 90s.

 

[bigbusdrvr]

Looks like someone on wallstreet didn't buy what JBLU's CFO had to say at the

JPMorgan 2005 airline conference.....

Stock closing out on its lows....18 and change!!!

Could be an interesting day tomorrow.....Usually stocks rally on conference news that is not necesarally bad.......

Maybe wallstreet knows something we don't....they usually do......

Good luck!!

 

[bigbusdrvr]

Briefing.com------Jetblue Airways slips to a fresh 52-week low as it takes

out its January low at 18.39 (JBLU) 18.21 {-0.63}

Looks like some technical support in the 14/15 range......

Come on blue crewmembers.....how bout some buying action to support

the options......"When in doubt, Double down!!"............

 

[FWAAA]

If yield and RASM decline as much in 2005 as they did last year and operating expenses increase as much in 2005 as they did last year, then B6 could post a loss in 2005 of $80 million to $120 million. If fuel stays at 4th Q levels, the loss might even be larger. Perhaps investors are finally reading the financials and doing the math.

B6 will probably avoid a cash crunch this year, but Neeleman will have to reach out and find some more cash in 2006 if these trends continue. Perhaps Soros will bail him out with some more money. B)

 

[bigbusdrvr]

Soros Fund Management---------------------

Shs Held................16,700,713
Shs Chg.................-1,000,000 on 12/31/04

Sold 6.0% of holdings.....Could be a tax hedge......

They read the numbers...they know when to hold and when to fold!!....

There are several big players buying as of 12/31/04..........

But not Soros.....Insider trading looks like all sold positions as well!!

Surely they know the inside scoop......

Maybe its just not a good time to hold airline stocks---------just my opinion!!

 

[bigbusdrvr]

Fresh low.......below 18!!

I still say support at 14/15 range....good time for option grants...

It would be more than double with a new high!!