Anybody Heard The Dl Merger Rumor?

[WorldTraveler]

Let me re-emphasize DL's CASM and correct my previous post that DL CASM was bested only by AA and CO. In fact DL's mainline, 2nd quarter CASM excl. charges was BELOW AA and CO as well as AS:

AA 10.03
AS 11.09
CO 9.92
DL 9.65

Read 'em and weep.

 

[Fly]

I find it unnecessary to babble on and on and on and on trying to get my point across. (that cute lil kitty got my point across beautifully) I've found that it tends to be "bore them into submission" with you. I guess that is just our different styles. C'est la vie.

Maybe we can discuss this over a glass of Kool-Aid sometime.

Let's just say this: I find this board extremely entertaining and don't put hours of thought into posting here. I am here for the laughs. Apparently you look at it differently and believe that if you post the same thing over and over, it will become reality.

Happy Posting!

 

[eolesen]

Let me re-emphasize DL's CASM and correct my previous post that DL CASM was bested only by AA and CO. In fact DL's mainline, 2nd quarter CASM excl. charges was BELOW AA and CO as well as AS:

AA 10.03
AS 11.09
CO 9.92
DL 9.65

Read 'em and weep.

You forgot something... DL with the "lowest cost" also had the largest loss.

Plus, as already commented on elsewhere, your comparison of CASM is useless on a comparison basis because it isn't adjusted for stage length. Wait a couple weeks for the rest of the earnings reports to come out, and you'll see how everyone stacks up across the industry. DL will not be at the bottom by any measure because their average stage length is longer due to all the outsourcing of shorter haul traffic to DCI carriers.

 

[C5 Driver]

Let me re-emphasize DL's CASM and correct my previous post that DL CASM was bested only by AA and CO. In fact DL's mainline, 2nd quarter CASM excl. charges was BELOW AA and CO as well as AS:

AA 10.03
AS 11.09
CO 9.92
DL 9.65

Read 'em and weep.

You forgot something... DL with the "lowest cost" also had the largest loss.

Plus, as already commented on elsewhere, your comparison of CASM is useless on a comparison basis because it isn't adjusted for stage length. Wait a couple weeks for the rest of the earnings reports to come out, and you'll see how everyone stacks up across the industry. DL will not be at the bottom by any measure because their average stage length is longer due to all the outsourcing of shorter haul traffic to DCI carriers.

[post="283293"][/post]​

My neighbour, a Jet Blue captain, just got back from recurrent training and their CEO came in and talked to them while in training. He was very worried that Delta and NWA were going to declare Chap 7 to get around anti trust restrictions and merge operations with Continental.

 

[MCI transplant]

You forgot something... DL with the "lowest cost" also had the largest loss.

Plus, as already commented on elsewhere, your comparison of CASM is useless on a comparison basis because it isn't adjusted for stage length. Wait a couple weeks for the rest of the earnings reports to come out, and you'll see how everyone stacks up across the industry. DL will not be at the bottom by any measure because their average stage length is longer due to all the outsourcing of shorter haul traffic to DCI carriers.

[post="283293"][/post]​

My neighbour, a Jet Blue captain, just got back from recurrent training and their CEO came in and talked to them while in training. He was very worried that Delta and NWA were going to declare Chap 7 to get around anti trust restrictions and merge operations with Continental.

[post="283831"][/post]​

[/quote] <_< That don't sound good! If they go Chap.7, that could leave the employee's tail feathers exposed!!!!! :down:

 

[WorldTraveler]

JetBlow said nothing about DL on its earnings conference call last week. They must be worried and finally realize that they have a real competitor on their hands.

However, the Dept. of Justice doens't give up its right to rule on antitrust issues just because a company or two is in bankruptcy.

Fly,
saying over and over again that UA will soon be out of bankruptcy obviously hasn't worked. We'll go through yet another winter w/ UAL in bankruptcy.

 

[Borescope]

  DL will not be at the bottom by any measure.....

[post="283293"][/post]​

Well, their definitly at the bottom in earnings

 

[Red Tail Bear]

.

Fly,
saying over and over again that UA will soon be out of bankruptcy obviously hasn't worked. We'll go through yet another winter w/ UAL in bankruptcy.

[post="283909"][/post]​

But they may have more company than they had last year. Any guesses as to who that would most likely be W.T.?

 

[luv2fly]

But they may have more company than they had last year. Any guesses as to who that would most likely be W.T.?

[post="283962"][/post]​

Yep, NW.

 

[Beer Guzzler]

DL & NW or DL & CO ... These rumors have been flying around for years. I do believe that DL and or NW will file bankruptcy before Oct 17th '05 when the bankruptcy laws change..

Mergers, hell anything is possible in todays aviation. I read a post the other day that AA & DL are looking to merge in order to create a 'mega' airline.

 

[Busdrvr]

JetBlow said nothing about DL on its earnings conference call last week. They must be worried and finally realize that they have a real competitor on their hands.

However, the Dept. of Justice doens't give up its right to rule on antitrust issues just because a company or two is in bankruptcy.

Fly,
saying over and over again that UA will soon be out of bankruptcy obviously hasn't worked. We'll go through yet another winter w/ UAL in bankruptcy.

[post="283909"][/post]​

WT,
First WRT the anti-trust issues, the JD is more "understanding" toward mergers if one of the companies is 'distressed'. That is one if the reasons the AMR/TWA merger passed muster so quickly. While the distressed carrier rules wouldn't allow UAL and NWA to merge, it would grease a merger that hade a moderate level of anti-trust issues.

Now on NOL carry-forwards, while I'm not a BK lawyer, I'll play one on here.
- The change in ownership does NOT occur until the stock is canceled. That occurs AFTER the restructuring and canceling of debt.
- The 50% rule is VERY murky and the fact that UAL is giving the equity to is debtors, NOT an equity investor, allows them to avoid a "change in ownership"
- With the restructuring of debt, UAL will eat up a LARGE portion of the NOL (if not all)
- How do you lose any NOL carry forwards after BK exit? Simply, you THEN change ownership via a merger. That complicates the whole merger picture. It may make more sense to have a DAL or NWA buy/merge with an Alaska than the other way around, leaving the weaker company as the survivor.

Please send me that cost info you have on fuel CASM on various airlines/jets. Looks real interesting

 

[Red Tail Bear]

Yep, NW.

[post="284292"][/post]​

 

[jimntx]

My neighbour, a Jet Blue captain, just got back from recurrent training and their CEO came in and talked to them while in training. He was very worried that Delta and NWA were going to declare Chap 7 to get around anti trust restrictions and merge operations with Continental.

[post="283831"][/post]​

First off, Chapter 7 is liquidation. There would be nothing left to merge. Chapter 7 requires that the company's assets be disposed of to the highest bidder and the proceeds distributed among the creditors as far as they will go.

Even if they all declared Chapter 11 to reorganize, I doubt seriously that this would allow them to circumvent anti-trust laws. In reference to another comment about the speed with which the AA/TWA merger was approved, I think it had less to do with the fact that one was "in distress" and more to do with the fact that it would not limit competition in a material way. TWA and AA did not compete on many routes.

A CO/DL/NWA would have a great deal of overlap in route structure and would definitely limit competition on a number of routes--particularly in the Southern U.S. For instance, IAH-MEM, only CO and NW serve this route. IAH-ATL, CO and DL. I'm sure there are many more examples.

If they did not eliminate either CO's flights to ATL or DL's, what would be the point of merging?

 

[WorldTraveler]

bus,
fuel CASM was broken out in each of the airline's latest earnings report or could be calculated from their ex-fuel CASM compared w/ their complete CASM.

The aircraft related CASM I previously spoke about is in the Aviation Daily articles I have previously posted. The data is copyrighted so I cannot post it but Av Daily is available in a number of fine educational institutions. You could probably request reprints of the articles in question. PM me if you're still interested and tell me exactly what you want and I'll see if I can get it for you. Av Daily spread the data over about 10 issues so it is more than I could post anyway.

 

[george]

It will not be DL or CO that will end up merging with NW. It will be the new USAirways.
Just watch and see!