Boeing Confirms 15 More 737-700s For Southwest Air
- Thread starter BillLumbergh
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With a net addition of 25 a/c to the fleet, it looks like SWA will be doing a lot of new/additional flying. Could we see SEA-BWI, MSY-MDW, or 2 or 3 new citites. I know that SWA is saying 1 city, but I think it will be 2 and maybe even 3. None of the new cities will be COS, even though that is my #1 pick if I were in charge.
42 total means about a new plane a week. WOW!!
42 total means about a new plane a week. WOW!!
I think once MDW, HOU, & BWI have all their new gates available, we'll see a lot of new interesting routes: BWI to SEA, PDX. HOU to SEA, PDX, SLC, ISP, MCO. MDW to all large & medium size markets in the system.
NEW cities? Well RIC is obvious for next year. I think the company might surprise us with a couple more in 2004. Anyone's guess which ones they might be. There's plenty of ripe fruit for the plucking: Fresno in the West, C. Springs, Milwaukee, Minniapolis in the central, Mobile/Pensacola/Destin on the Gulf, Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in Florida, Anything on the East Coast (Charlston, Roanoke, Greensboro, Savannah), and of course the NE is wide open.
The biggest challenge the company is going to have is figuring where to put the planes to best fluster the plans of our true competitor, JBLU.
NEW cities? Well RIC is obvious for next year. I think the company might surprise us with a couple more in 2004. Anyone's guess which ones they might be. There's plenty of ripe fruit for the plucking: Fresno in the West, C. Springs, Milwaukee, Minniapolis in the central, Mobile/Pensacola/Destin on the Gulf, Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in Florida, Anything on the East Coast (Charlston, Roanoke, Greensboro, Savannah), and of course the NE is wide open.
The biggest challenge the company is going to have is figuring where to put the planes to best fluster the plans of our true competitor, JBLU.
Absolutely your strongest competitor is JBLU. However, JBLU is taking somewhat great pains to not compete directly with SW, so I don't know how you can directly compete with them.
I would gather SW would continue to do what it has been known to do, go to less congested airports and offer great service. JBLU is focusing on more congested airports and flying longer flight lengths. I wouldn't be surprised to see JBLU announce BOS, ORD and LAX. LGB served an effective base for them while they were getting started. they should easily be able to acquire gates at LAX.
I believe SW is responding too slowly against JBLU. SW needs to aggressively add cities (how about SIX of them by the end of next year). JBLU and WestJet have proven that you don't need to fly 12 flights to a city to run it profitably. Back in the early 90's SW would aggressively add cities, now they haven't announced a new city in almost two years. JBLU and AirTran announce cities. The US govt tells us that the US has been out of the recession for the past 2 years yet SW does not announce cities.
I would add 4 to 6 flights to a number of cities
RIC - 2 MDW, 2- BNA, 1-MCO, 1-TPA, 1-PHX
Dayton - 2-MDW, 3-BWI, 1-MCO, 1-LAS
Columbia SC - 3-BWI, 1-BNA, 1-MCO
Greenville SC - 3-BWI, 1-BNA, 1-MCO
Ft. Myers - 4-BWI, 1-BNA, 1 -MDW
Allentown - 3-MDW, 2-MCO, 1-LAS
SW needs to be expanding its network and quit being conservative. They also should get ready to pounce on St. Louis, Pittsburgh opportunities when the opportunities are right.
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On 7/24/2003 11:51:35 AM spanky wrote:
I think once MDW, HOU, & BWI have all their new gates available, we'll see a lot of new interesting routes: BWI to SEA, PDX. HOU to SEA, PDX, SLC, ISP, MCO. MDW to all large & medium size markets in the system.
NEW cities? Well RIC is obvious for next year. I think the company might surprise us with a couple more in 2004. Anyone's guess which ones they might be. There's plenty of ripe fruit for the plucking: Fresno in the West, C. Springs, Milwaukee, Minniapolis in the central, Mobile/Pensacola/Destin on the Gulf, Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in Florida, Anything on the East Coast (Charlston, Roanoke, Greensboro, Savannah), and of course the NE is wide open.
The biggest challenge the company is going to have is figuring where to put the planes to best fluster the plans of our true competitor, JBLU.
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You will not see WN in Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in the near term. Melbourne is covered by Orlando, Sarasota by Tampa Bay, and Tallahassee does not have the passenger volume to support WN service. I do think you will see WN in Fort Myers and/or Pensacola/Mobile in the near term. As far as HOU, WN tried HOU - PVD nonstops. I think they would have worked, but CO added PVD - IAH at the same time. Eventually they both left the market (WN continues to operate direct service). I am not sure if HOU - ISP would or not. No CO competition, but still tough.
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On 7/24/2003 11:51:35 AM spanky wrote:
I think once MDW, HOU, & BWI have all their new gates available, we'll see a lot of new interesting routes: BWI to SEA, PDX. HOU to SEA, PDX, SLC, ISP, MCO. MDW to all large & medium size markets in the system.
NEW cities? Well RIC is obvious for next year. I think the company might surprise us with a couple more in 2004. Anyone's guess which ones they might be. There's plenty of ripe fruit for the plucking: Fresno in the West, C. Springs, Milwaukee, Minniapolis in the central, Mobile/Pensacola/Destin on the Gulf, Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in Florida, Anything on the East Coast (Charlston, Roanoke, Greensboro, Savannah), and of course the NE is wide open.
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On 7/24/2003 11:51:35 AM spanky wrote:
I think once MDW, HOU, & BWI have all their new gates available, we'll see a lot of new interesting routes: BWI to SEA, PDX. HOU to SEA, PDX, SLC, ISP, MCO. MDW to all large & medium size markets in the system.
NEW cities? Well RIC is obvious for next year. I think the company might surprise us with a couple more in 2004. Anyone's guess which ones they might be. There's plenty of ripe fruit for the plucking: Fresno in the West, C. Springs, Milwaukee, Minniapolis in the central, Mobile/Pensacola/Destin on the Gulf, Melbourne/Sarasota/Tallahassee in Florida, Anything on the East Coast (Charlston, Roanoke, Greensboro, Savannah), and of course the NE is wide open.
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AirplaneFan,
I'm usually right on board with most of what you write here, but I have some disagreements:
"I believe SW is responding too slowly against JBLU."
Responding to what? How many markets do we share with them? I think both airlines are avoiding each other, and will continue to do so for some time. And how would SWA respond to a competitor that appears to be taking great pains to avoid Southwest? If we start going after jetBlue, then we come out looking like the evil monster of the low fare carriers by starting this little war. Think how AA get crucified by the media every time they go to run some upstart carrier out of business. Southwest would go from being a media darling to a media monster in about five seconds, I could promise you that.
"SW needs to be expanding its network and quit being conservative."
So what do you think those 42 new planes will be used for?
"They also should get ready to pounce on St. Louis, Pittsburgh opportunities when the opportunities are right."
What makes you think they aren't doing that, already? Why do you think SWA has been so conservative in the first place? It makes no sense to be just opening cities for the sake of opening cities, especially when there may be bigger fish to fry coming soon. In addition, it costs a significant chunk of change (and I do mean significant) to open a new city. Think of the costs of construction on the gates, advertising, marketing, training new employees, etc. Better to save that money to use at a time when one of those "must have" opportunites presents themselves. At a time when profits were low, and when we were even in doubt as to whether we'd make profits in some quarters, it makes no sense to be spending millions to open a new city just to say we opened one. Not when SWA could simply play the game of "connect the dots" at stations where they're already established. And it's worked well. Those new long hauls are doing extremely well.
In addition, there is a definite risk in opening a new city. Once again, with profits looking like they were, I don't think it made sense to be taking that sort of risk.
"The US govt tells us that the US has been out of the recession for the past 2 years yet SW does not announce cities."
Pfft -- the government's full of it.
Sorry, but I am nothing if not confident in the abilities of our CFO. The man has played a huge role in keeping us profitable in the worst cirxxxstances in this industry's history. If he says play it careful, then I believe him. He knows far more than any of us about the economics of this industry, as his track record has proven.
But with 42 planes confirmed for next year, my gut instinct is that we're getting ready to get back to some serious growth.
I'm usually right on board with most of what you write here, but I have some disagreements:
"I believe SW is responding too slowly against JBLU."
Responding to what? How many markets do we share with them? I think both airlines are avoiding each other, and will continue to do so for some time. And how would SWA respond to a competitor that appears to be taking great pains to avoid Southwest? If we start going after jetBlue, then we come out looking like the evil monster of the low fare carriers by starting this little war. Think how AA get crucified by the media every time they go to run some upstart carrier out of business. Southwest would go from being a media darling to a media monster in about five seconds, I could promise you that.
"SW needs to be expanding its network and quit being conservative."
So what do you think those 42 new planes will be used for?
"They also should get ready to pounce on St. Louis, Pittsburgh opportunities when the opportunities are right."
What makes you think they aren't doing that, already? Why do you think SWA has been so conservative in the first place? It makes no sense to be just opening cities for the sake of opening cities, especially when there may be bigger fish to fry coming soon. In addition, it costs a significant chunk of change (and I do mean significant) to open a new city. Think of the costs of construction on the gates, advertising, marketing, training new employees, etc. Better to save that money to use at a time when one of those "must have" opportunites presents themselves. At a time when profits were low, and when we were even in doubt as to whether we'd make profits in some quarters, it makes no sense to be spending millions to open a new city just to say we opened one. Not when SWA could simply play the game of "connect the dots" at stations where they're already established. And it's worked well. Those new long hauls are doing extremely well.
In addition, there is a definite risk in opening a new city. Once again, with profits looking like they were, I don't think it made sense to be taking that sort of risk.
"The US govt tells us that the US has been out of the recession for the past 2 years yet SW does not announce cities."
Pfft -- the government's full of it.
Sorry, but I am nothing if not confident in the abilities of our CFO. The man has played a huge role in keeping us profitable in the worst cirxxxstances in this industry's history. If he says play it careful, then I believe him. He knows far more than any of us about the economics of this industry, as his track record has proven.
But with 42 planes confirmed for next year, my gut instinct is that we're getting ready to get back to some serious growth.
Hobbes, during the 2nd quarter conference call Gary Kelly mentioned that Southwest's aircraft delivery plan in the next three years is roughly equal to all the rest of the industry combined. That's some serious growth for sure.
Hobbes,
Thanks for the kudos (I think they were kudos),
I am delighted they are growing aggressively in 2004. I just wish they had started in the summer of 2002.
You are right that since JetBlue avoids Southwest it is hard to directly compete against them. However, I think that the more cities that Southwest picks up, the greater the chance to build a loyal customer base against JetBlue (BTW, I am not picking a side I just think that SW is missing opportunities). Back in the early 1990's (Iraq war, recession), SW grew like gangbusters and took advantage of the slow economy. This time SW did not do anything of the sort. They know they are the 800-lb gorilla of the airline industry, but they are beginning to act like it. If the recession is so bad, how come JetBlue has been growing right thru it? To a lesser extent AirTran.
Don't get me wrong, I love Southwest. I think Herb Kelleher will go down as one of the aviation pioneers along with Wright brothers, Lindburgh and a few others. He showed the world how to make it work. Giving good paying jobs to many and making it cheap enough to fly the masses. But as I said 2-3 years ago, why didn't SW have the foresight to get into JFK? If NY legislators gave a sweetheart deal to JetBlue, wouldn't they have given a sweeter deal to Southwest? Imagine JFK - LAX nonstops. 40 flights a day between JFK - BWI (making it the most traveled SW route instead of DAL - HOU). So my thinking has been for the past few years that SW is resting on its laurels. Its more concerned with maintaining quarterly profits than growing the business. .... just my 2 cents.
Thanks for the kudos (I think they were kudos),
I am delighted they are growing aggressively in 2004. I just wish they had started in the summer of 2002.
You are right that since JetBlue avoids Southwest it is hard to directly compete against them. However, I think that the more cities that Southwest picks up, the greater the chance to build a loyal customer base against JetBlue (BTW, I am not picking a side I just think that SW is missing opportunities). Back in the early 1990's (Iraq war, recession), SW grew like gangbusters and took advantage of the slow economy. This time SW did not do anything of the sort. They know they are the 800-lb gorilla of the airline industry, but they are beginning to act like it. If the recession is so bad, how come JetBlue has been growing right thru it? To a lesser extent AirTran.
Don't get me wrong, I love Southwest. I think Herb Kelleher will go down as one of the aviation pioneers along with Wright brothers, Lindburgh and a few others. He showed the world how to make it work. Giving good paying jobs to many and making it cheap enough to fly the masses. But as I said 2-3 years ago, why didn't SW have the foresight to get into JFK? If NY legislators gave a sweetheart deal to JetBlue, wouldn't they have given a sweeter deal to Southwest? Imagine JFK - LAX nonstops. 40 flights a day between JFK - BWI (making it the most traveled SW route instead of DAL - HOU). So my thinking has been for the past few years that SW is resting on its laurels. Its more concerned with maintaining quarterly profits than growing the business. .... just my 2 cents.
JS
Veteran
AirplaneFan, JFK-BWI 40 times a day? That's crazy. It would never work. How many people would want to fly that route?
In my opinion, there are no new cities that Southwest can open, using 737's, at high frequency, and without entering a fortress hub (DFW, CLT, MSP).
Rather than stagnate, buy some turboprops and run them from smaller stations to WN hubs for connections. By "small" I mean cities WN doesn't serve today in addition to airports with little existing WN service.
Take JAX-HOU for instance. The last flight of the day leaves at 10:40 AM (one stop). What kind of service is that?
In my opinion, there are no new cities that Southwest can open, using 737's, at high frequency, and without entering a fortress hub (DFW, CLT, MSP).
Rather than stagnate, buy some turboprops and run them from smaller stations to WN hubs for connections. By "small" I mean cities WN doesn't serve today in addition to airports with little existing WN service.
Take JAX-HOU for instance. The last flight of the day leaves at 10:40 AM (one stop). What kind of service is that?
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On 7/25/2003 6:54:42 AM LoveFieldFlyer wrote:
Hobbes, during the 2nd quarter conference call Gary Kelly mentioned that Southwest's aircraft delivery plan in the next three years is roughly equal to all the rest of the industry combined. That's some serious growth for sure.
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Yes, we are going to kick some major airline booty with some of that serious growth. In just a few short years, Southwest will be the only airline flying in the U.S. of A. All of the "major" airlines will go out of business, and Southwest will buy up everyone else.On 7/25/2003 6:54:42 AM LoveFieldFlyer wrote:
Hobbes, during the 2nd quarter conference call Gary Kelly mentioned that Southwest's aircraft delivery plan in the next three years is roughly equal to all the rest of the industry combined. That's some serious growth for sure.
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I am so proud of our leadership within this company.
See you all at the Spirit Party in OAK. Be there or be square!!!
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