DL Investing $100M in GOL

[eolesen]

Interesting development....


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-07/delta-investment-very-positive-for-brazil-s-gol-bradesco-says.html

Delta Investment ‘Very Positive’ for Brazil’s Gol, Bradesco Says

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Delta Air Lines Inc.’s plan to invest $100 million in Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA is “very positive” for the Brazilian carrier, Banco Bradesco SA said.

The 47 percent premium offered on Gol’s shares implies a higher value for the company and gives it access to Delta’s global platform, Edigimar Maximiliano Jr., an analyst at Bradesco, wrote in a note to clients today.

Bradesco reiterated its “outperform” rating on Gol.

This is the second partnership/investment between GOL and DL -- earlier this year they signed a MRO partnership.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Note that this is an exclusive partnership... whoever loses the LAN/TAM alliance contest cannot bunk up with Gol now.
This is the 2nd exclusive investment DL has made in a carrier in Latin America this year... AM first, now G3. DL clearly has intents to be not remain the #3 carrier in Latin America after AA and UA/CO.
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It is also worth noting that DL has a seat on the board of Gol... this is not a passive investment. I am quite certain that DL has intentions of coaxing G3 back into the intercontinental (long haul) market... there are no more frequencies available for US carriers between the US and GRU but there are an abundance available for Brazilian carriers. G3 also has plenty of slots at GRU. Note that G3 really is a southern cone airline - not just in Brazil and they just signed an agreement with AR of Argentina.

G3 flew the 767 after acquiring Varig and I believe they still have some parked... DL is the world's largest 767 operator. DL has a maintenance agreement w/ G3 on their current fleet; it is undoubtedly worth DL's efforts to do everything to get G3 back in the int'l market but pay their employees.....

 

[eolesen]

AFAIK the only former Varig fleet still flying is a handful of older 73 NGs in mixed class.

Smart move, and one that neither Star or onrworld could do until LATAM announces which alliance they're choosing.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Smart move, and one that neither Star or onrworld could do until LATAM announces which alliance they're choosing.

LATAM is effectively prohibited from joining Star. Part of the requirement for merger approval was that the combined carrier could not belong to the same alliance as Avianca-TACA, which is joining Star next year.

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

the move was preemptive to ensure that DL will be one of the 2 US airlines that have a partner with one of the two main carriers in Brazil.
LAN-TAM is obviously a larger int'l airline grouping than G3 plus AR but from an alliance perspective, it might well mean that DL/AF/KL is responsible for much of the longhaul flying while G3 and AR are responsible for flying within the southern cone.
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The former RG brand is retained for int'l flying outside of Brazil and to a lesser extent in the high volume RIO-SAO corridor.
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Some reports indicate that DL took over 2 767s which Gol had on lease but could not return as part of the deal but which had been parked - and put a drain on G3's finances. DL probably can rehabilitate them but one is reportedly a 762ER which is probably as likely to be refurbished and then leased out than retained in the DL fleet.
I still wouldn't be surprised to see DL go so far as wet lease aircraft to G3 (to the extent allowed by Brazilian law) and add more service to Brazil, including increasing Skyteam's presence from MIA to Latin America. AR has just one flight to N. America and it is <IIRC a poorly timed flight from MIA that isn't terribly reliable.
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It likely means that it will be UA/CO which will now be alliance poor in deep S. America.
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Let's also not forget that AA and JJ combined have more than 80% of the flights from Brazil to the US... it is highly likely that AA/JJ will be forced to divest slots at GRU in order to get the deal passed - or wait until 2014 when GRU open skies goes into effect.

 

[tech2101]

Brazil is a huge emerging market. Delta can only do good by increasing capacity there.

 

[FWAAA]

Does anyone see the potential for immunized alliances between USA and Brazil? If so, I would agree that ATI could not happen if AA and its partners owned 80% of the slots at GRU. But without ATI, would codeshares or simply alliance membership require slot divestitures? AA and BA controlled a lot of slots at LHR yet were allowed to join the same alliance many years prior to Open Skies and the ATI approval.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Does anyone see the potential for immunized alliances between USA and Brazil? If so, I would agree that ATI could not happen if AA and its partners owned 80% of the slots at GRU. But without ATI, would codeshares or simply alliance membership require slot divestitures? AA and BA controlled a lot of slots at LHR yet were allowed to join the same alliance many years prior to Open Skies and the ATI approval.

it is possible that AA/JJ could be blocked from having ATI until Open Skies is implemented between the US and Brazil, planned for 2014 with the opening of a new terminal at GRU and the World Cup.
Without new capacity, there are no slots at GRU largely due to a lack of terminal rather than runway capacity.
It is possible that AA/JJ could be blocked from having ATI until there is new capacity at GRU while other carriers could move forward - of AA/JJ could agree to divest slots in order to move forward w/ ATI.
Latin America is the last major region for immunized alliances and they have largely not happened because Latin carriers have understandably been much more cautious of the 3 800 pound gorillas in the US... and no Latin American country has even 2 major int'l carriers. As you know, AA has ATI w/ Lan in Chile, one of the most economically forward thinking countries in Latin America.
The LAN/TAM grouping will likely make AA one of the carriers with an alliance arrangement in Latin America. DL is apparently gunning to not be shut out with its investments in Aeromexico and Gol in the two largest Latin countries along with Aerolineas Argentinas where DL will have to focus a lot of attention in improving service quality.
UA/CO will have some alliance partners in Latin America but they will not have the strongest partners in the strongest market.
Given that DL and UA both do not have a presence in MIA-Latin America, the one that is able to develop the strongest alliance relationships will likely be the first that will try to crack AA's dominance on MIA-Latin America. Without strong alliance partners, it would be suicide to try. With strong alliance partnerships and strong enough feed into MIA to ensure there is sufficient capacity to support the most basic levels of service in the key markets whether by the US or Latin partner, it is very possible to see a 2nd carrier in the only major US gateway that is still domianated by just one US carrier.