Ch. 12. I understand your point about LGA-MCO... However, my point is that as long as there are hundreds of people per day traveling LGA-MCO, and less than 100 per day traveling LGA-ILM, for example (I am making up the numbers just to ball-park the order of magnitude), then the greatest potential for profit, assuming all else equal, is with MCO. Now, I know that all else is not equal. But I do assume the reduced RASM US Airways would be able to generate to MCO would be offset by the reduced CASM of operating a mainline sized aircraft.
I disagree with your notion of reducing frequency reduces demand. I think in some cases, that is true, but it is not universal. Midwest beat US Airways out of MCI-LGA/DCA with only a 2x or 3x pattern. Since then, TW/AA added LGA-MCI, and US Airways returned to DCA-MCI with CRJ's. LGA-BUF does not need an almost hourly DH8 shuttle... I think there is some room to reduce frequency... You could not reduce it to 2 daily A321's, but I would guess you could reduce it to 4-5 trips on mainline and ERJ-170's.
Example: US Airways June schedule BUF to LGA:
6:10am Dash-8
7:00am ERJ
8:40am Dash-8
10:45am Dash-8
12:15pm Dash-8
1:45pm Dash-8
3:50pm Dash-8
5:20pm ERJ
7:20pm Dash-8
8:00pm Dash-8
I think you could run the following:
7am 319
12noon ERJ-170
4pm 319
7pm ERJ-170
Will you lose a few pax who absolutely must leave at 9am? Maybe. But I also think many will switch to the 7am or 12noon trip. Will the 6am pax voluntarily switch to the 7am trip at the same price? Probably. Will US Airways be better of making better use of those 9 slots? I think so... Especially with a rational fare structure. And by the way, the seat difference is 359 today compared to 380 in my proposed schedule... a few more seats, all at lower CASM (this allowing fares to be lower).
I think it could work, but it means changing the way US Airways does business... But I bet there are lots of markets from DCA and LGA where this example could be accomplished, and when added all up, would be a net positive for the company.
I think that running 9 Dash-8/ERJ's against JBlue's 7 320's is a recipe for disaster... If US Airways flies a DH8, the CASM is probably around 16-18 cents... A US Airways 319 CASM is around 11.5cents... jetBlue's CASM is around 6.5cents... 4 319/ERJ-170 flights allows you to maintain the LGA-BUF market and presumably use the other slots to find something more lucrative, whatever that might be.