The Atsb Process

[mweiss]

Someone is doing a VERY good job at managing perception.

The perception management is based on a few nuggets of reality:

1) LCCs, despite charging lower average fares than the legacies (how else do you end up with lower RASM at similar load factors?), are profitable
2) B6, FL, F9, and HP are proving that more than one business model can succeed in the LCC space. Contrast this to the surprisingly uniform legacy carrier space.
3) American's like "new," and all of the new ideas are coming from the LCC space

 

[mweiss]

If however, the economic engine of United was of great enough benfit to the U.S. economy (and this is assuming that it may be), perhaps they should think along the lines of the Swiss.

Unlike the Swiss, there are plenty of airlines in the US willing to take up the slack. Outside of us nostalgic sorts, who misses PA and TW? They've been replaced by UA and AA. If UA were to fail, some other US airline would pick up the pieces and life would go on.

That doesn't mean that the political posturing of "what's good for UA is good for the US, and what's good for the US is good for UA" wouldn't find some welcome ears in Congress. It's just that such posturing is nothing more than politics. It is certainly not supported by economic realities.

 

[Busdrvr]

I'm willing to bet Pit would miss U, MCI misses EAL, STL misses TWA, CIN would miss DAL, DEN would miss UAL, SLC would miss DAL, and MEM would miss NWA. Sure, you'd get cheap tickets to grammas (as long as she happens to live in one of the relatively small number of cities served by the LCC's), but businesses would take a HUGE hit. No one would replace the current presence in those cities

 

[mweiss]

They don't miss the airlines. They miss the number of nonstops. If the market is large enough to support hubbing profitably, someone will hub there.

Or, put another way, DEN doesn't miss CAL, and ATL doesn't miss EAL. Catch my drift?

 

[Busdrvr]

Oh, I catch your drift, I just think you're on some of Bethune's ragweed if you think anyone would come into any of those cities with that level of service.

 

[Ukridge]

Irrespective of the merits for or against the case I still wish United the best and hope for its survival. I say this in part because of past experience (still a great deal of FF miles), in part because of the ease which the Star has brought to my travels, and in part because of my belief that while 'new' may be flashier, it does not always in the long term turn out to be any better and the change is not worth it. Channge for change's sake and nothing really changes.
Now, if someone could do something about the rail system here that would be another story....
The Flat Earther

 

[jimntx]

I also wonder whether AA has limited its ability to pick up the NRT portion of UA’s network since they now (or soon will be) flying every NRT route to US metro area that UA serves except SEA. Is it possible that the DOJ would argue that AA’s acquisition of at least the NRT hub from UA’s network might be anti-competitive since it is unlikely that any other carrier would immediately step in and replace the lost US-NRT services.

It is true that AA may be out of the running for future NRT slots given that they have been awarded the unused HNL-NRT routes--though the NRT end of that deal is not yet a fait accompli. However, there are other ways to get to the Orient and other destinations. Now that non-stop LAX-Singapore is a reality (I still shudder at the thought), is there any destination in the Orient that requires a stop at NRT?

 

[Bizman]

Oh, I catch your drift, I just think you're on some of Bethune's ragweed if you think anyone would come into any of those cities with that level of service.

I think you missed the point. The key word in Mweiss' statement was "profitability". Maybe this is why UA is losing so much. They don't want to admit that they're never going to be the biggest again. They just can't fly everywhere and make a profit.

 

[Cosmo]

An interesting Reuters article regarding United and the ATSB process came out this morning with the following quote:

However, one senior lawmaker believes UAL Corp.'s United, which is based in Elk Grove Village, Illinois, has positioned itself so well politically that approval by the Air Transportation Stabilization Board is inevitable despite the new developments and maneuvering by other airlines to derail the loan guarantee.

I guess we'll see whether or not that's true soon enough, hopefully within the next month or so. You can read the whole article here.

 

[jimntx]

I wonder if the unnamed lawmaker is, in fact, the Honorable Mr. Hastert? And, since Mr. Tilton came from the oil industry, is that his "political" position?

"There is nothing in the law that says you can bail out airlines because their fuel costs are too high or labor costs are too high, or because they can't manage their low-cost competition," Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, an Illinois Republican and critic of United's application for federal aid, said in an interview.

Now that statement is surprising coming from an Illinois politician who has to run statewide. Obviously he feels he can get re-elected without the help of the 1,000's of UAL employees who might be put out of a job. Unless, he's from downstate. They seem to oppose anything having to do with Chicago on principle. (My late wife was from Hillsboro. One of the first things her mother told me was that "there's Cook County and there's Illinois. They are NOT the same.")

 

[Fly]

I don't think Fitzgerald runs again. We all know that politicians only have guts when they know they won't seek re-election.

 

[Busdrvr]

"Mr" Fitzgerald got his seat in the Senate (statewide election Jim) via his immense wealth and a VERY week opponent (Carol Mosely Braun). He would normally have been up for re-election this time around, but isn't well like by anybody but maybe his dog (which he surely kicks regularly...) and decided not to run for re-election

 

[jimntx]

"Mr" Fitzgerald got his seat in the Senate (statewide election Jim) via his immense wealth and a VERY week opponent (Carol Mosely Braun). He would normally have been up for re-election this time around, but isn't well like by anybody but maybe his dog (which he surely kicks regularly...) and decided not to run for re-election

Gee, just what Illinois (or any state for that matter) needs...A new Senator every 6 years in a club where seniority is just about everything. Wouldn't want to build up that seniority and get committee assignments that benefit the state of Illinois, now would we?

Let's just make it a resume padder for rich men with not much else to do.

 

[Fly]

And your point is??? h34r:

 

[jimntx]

If you have to ask how much, you can't afford it.

If you have to ask the point, you won't get it anyway.