Us Airways Strategic Analysis

[funguy2]

While unrelated specifically to US Airways, this is a nice example of "venture capitalists" trying to invest in bankrupt airlines... Fortunately for Hawaiian, they have another interested, and presumably legit, commitment for exit financing.

Hawaiian Airlines Investor Arrested

Now, exactly who is investing in US Airways again? Might be important to know these kinds of details.

 

[savyinvestor]

OPEC oil ministers have given no indication they may increase oil production . Where did you come up with that possiability? Another USA320 spin? Savy

 

[BoeingBoy]

Fare increases – ...

For discussion purposes, lets assume that US Airways increased its round trip fares for about 75,000 customers per day by $10 and not include those long-haul flights where the increase was $20 per round trip. That would boost the company’s revenue by $750,000 per day or about $22.5 million per day. If this number is accurate, the increase in revenue would offset about a $11.25 increase in crude oil prices and its effect on the carrier’s jet fuel expense over budget.

[post="253840"][/post]​

Shucks, I go fly for 3 days and miss all the fun. I'll just take this little slice and play with it....

You make a simple mistake. Assuming your passenger count (derived from the bookings), you add $10 per passenger to reflect the round trip fare increase. What you forget is that the vast majority of passengers fly round trip and thus show up twice in booking numbers you cited - once for each direction of the journey (ex. in the 10th numbers for A to B and in the 15th numbers for B to A). Therefore, you effectively double the additional revenue that the fare increase will provide (or slightly less, since you discount the longer flights).

As I have said before, the amount of additional revenue the fare increase will generate was overstated by about a factor of 2 by the analyst in the newspaper article you cited several days ago. You assumed fewer passengers would pay the extra $5/$10 so corrected the figure somewhat. But you're still nearly 50% high. Try closer to $16 million per month.

Jim

 

[BoeingBoy]

Meanwhile, today the USDOE released an inventory report indicating supply was 3.2 million barrels higher year-over-year, which is twice the number than was expected and should help drive prices lower. This is the biggest supply increase since July and shows speculators are not focusing on fundamentals, although that could change in the not-so-distant future.

[post="253972"][/post]​

The DOE weekly status report also said a couple of other things:

"Distillate fuel inventories fell by 0.8 million barrels last week, and are in the lower
half of the average range for this time of year. The decline in distillate fuel inventories was all in high- sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil), as low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories remained the same [low-sulfur distillate fuel includes jet fuel - Jim]."

"Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 2.9 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year."

What do the fundamentals say happens when supply is the same and demand increases?

Jim

 

[savyinvestor]

Jim, I love it when you analyze! Savy

 

[BoeingBoy]

Savy,

You know I hate to disappoint Rico by not being my normal "gloom & doom" self.....

Jim

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Jim, I love it when you analyze! Savy

[post="254125"][/post]​

You love it when he analyzes what 320 preached Admit it. I know I do.

 

[savyinvestor]

Lets just say I really enjoy Jim's common sense posts. No spin and to the point! Savy

 

[BoeingBoy]

Now here's something that should get the rumor mill (or spin machine) going....

Monomoy Capital Partners Formed to Invest in Business Restructurings

Jim

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Lets just say I really enjoy Jim's common sense posts. No spin and to the point! Savy

[post="254130"][/post]​

I like them too

 

[sfb]

Now here's something that should get the rumor mill (or spin machine) going....

Monomoy Capital Partners Formed to Invest in Business Restructurings

Jim

Interesting; the only hole I see is that they intend to "make controlling investments in businesses with revenues between $20 to $150 million in need of turnaround management, operational rationalization and financial restructuring." US Airways Group is about 50 times the maximum size mentioned and the proposed capital structure won't get them a controlling stake for less than $250 million.

 

[USA320Pilot]

I believe Cowen, Weiss, and Simon (CWS) has represented ALPA International and US Airways for over 30 years. Mike Abram, Esq. from CWS is considered the brightest man within ALPA, he helps negotiate every ALPA contract, and in the case of US Airways, has seen US Airways' and United's financial statements.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[luvn737s]

Mainline bookings during the past 7 days were:

March 3 - 123,000
March 4 - 135,000
March 5 - 115,000
March 6 - 112,000
March 7 - 110,000
March 8 - 95,000
March 9 - 110,000

During the past seven days mainline bookings averaged about 115,000 customers and its Express bookings average about 47,000 passengers per day.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

[post="253840"][/post]​

This seems like a release of proprietary information which, I would imagine, be cause for dismissal. Is the firing of USA320 the announcement that will add to USAir's liquidity?

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Me too but I hope you are like me and don't hold your breath.

 

[700UW]

He won't answer you because you have proved him wrong.