"What goes around.(could).Come around" !

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The TRUEST form of knowing what will happen with each carrier is "TIME", and with THAT statement, I believe we may have Common Ground.

One thing is ABSOLUTELY sure. OIL will continue to RISE.

You're probably completely correct, but remember what happened in 1986? How about 1998? $10/bbl oil after having climbed to much higher levels.

I'm not saying it's going to do that again, but it might. It could. Especially if I were to place huge financial bets on oil never dropping again. B)

Oil's recent price rise has taken everyone by surprise. Even Southwest. It successfully hedged fuel over the last few years and has benefitted by more than $2 billion as a result. But if Gary Kelly thought it was going to $110/bbl, WN would have hedged a higher percentage of the outlying years a lot sooner than it did.
 
As OIL $$'s steadily RISE, this Industry will become(like) a Giant game of "chicken" !!

Who cuts (domestic) flights first
Who Furloughs the most people, and when.
Who hides in BK(AGAIN).


Time will DEFINETLY tell.

Tick-Tick-Tick-Tick-Tick !
 
Doesn't look good for NW, NHBB's.......the market hasn't closed yet (a few minutes to go) but NW is down by a greater percentage than any other legacy carrier so far. Even LCC is down less. That is the yardstick you like, isn't it?

Jim
 
Doesn't look good for NW, NHBB's.......the market hasn't closed yet (a few minutes to go) but NW is down by a greater percentage than any other legacy carrier so far. Even LCC is down less. That is the yardstick you like, isn't it?

Jim

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Yes it is a "yardstick" that I watch, but it's one that I wish was going in the opposite direction, for EVERY carrier !

My touting one carrier to survive, while another may fall, is NOT my wish, but I am a realist Jim, and unfortunately "THAT" may be how this whole scenario plays out, without (so much as) one single successful merger/acquisition.
 
Yes it is a "yardstick" that I watch, but it's one that I wish was going in the opposite direction, for EVERY carrier !
I'll definitely agree with the second part, but give some friendly advice on the first part - don't sorry so much about intra-day or even daily stock fluctuations - it'll drive you crazy and doesn't mean a thing in the larger scheme because it's just Wall Street noise. Plus, it makes you sound a little like mags - looking for any little thing to justify slamming a particular airline.

Just look at LCC, for example - after going from over 60 (over 50 before and after the DL attempt) to less than 10, it often doesn't fluctuate as much as some of the others on a daily basis. Do the smaller daily fluctuations relative to it's legacy peers really indicate strength? Or is the real story the 80%+ drop over time? And do either tell you LCC's fate in 5 years?

Jim
 
I'll definitely agree with the second part, but give some friendly advice on the first part - don't sorry so much about intra-day or even daily stock fluctuations - it'll drive you crazy and doesn't mean a thing in the larger scheme because it's just Wall Street noise. Plus, it makes you sound a little like mags - looking for any little thing to justify slamming a particular airline.

Just look at LCC, for example - after going from over 60 (over 50 before and after the DL attempt) to less than 10, it often doesn't fluctuate as much as some of the others on a daily basis. Do the smaller daily fluctuations relative to it's legacy peers really indicate strength? Or is the real story the 80%+ drop over time? And do either tell you LCC's fate in 5 years?

Jim


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BB,

I'll agree with you on 95% of your post.(meaning Wall st Info.)

Where I digress, is my perceived "diabolical" hatred for DL !

A check of my posts, from some years past, would have found me "all over WN", at what was going on in the Industry, at that point in time.

I had MANY a "back and forth" with my good pal KCFlyer over WN, at the time !

My "bone of contention" with DL is, that I feel that they are "somewhat" a "house of cards" as it pertains to financial stability, when compared to NW.

I suppose that the ONLY way any of us will know if my opinion is correct, is "TIME" !

As the OIL vise squeezes the life ($$$) out of all 6 legacies, some will succumb before others. (assuming that no successful M+A's develope)

Again I state, that I DO NOT want to see ANY hard working Airline person lose his/her job !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But, as you know well, the reality of this Industry, is BRUTAL and UNFORGIVING, when times get TOUGH.

Additionally, (as you know so well), as (6) carriers get squeezed HARD, and(say) 2 drop First, that "may" be enough of the "law of the Jungle", for the remaining(say) 4, to "stay afloat"

(Kind of like an Overloaded Life Raft)
 
My "bone of contention" with DL is, that I feel that they are "somewhat" a "house of cards" as it pertains to financial stability, when compared to NW.

I suppose that the ONLY way any of us will know if my opinion is correct, is "TIME" !
You're right - only time will tell........but using meaningless tidbits (intra-day stock fluctuation) in an attempt to "prove" your "feeling" doesn't help your case.

Both NW and DL carry much more "Goodwill" on their balance sheets (25-35% of total assets) than the other legacy carriers combined, at least partially providing those "strong balance sheets" that some are so proud of. Goodwill can't be spent, burned in the engines, sold to raise cash, whatever, but it sure makes the number on the "Total Assets" line of the balance sheet look big. AA & CO carry very little - negligible as a percentage of assets since there's not enough to even warrant a separate entry on the balance sheet. Maybe NW & DL are both "houses of cards" while AA/CO are the best positioned? Only time will tell......

Jim
 
NHBB - I am a little sad because I used to look forward to your posts. :( They used to be objective and informative. But your obvious hatred for Delta is apparent in your posts over the last few months. I'm sure you will reply with some snappy come back, but it is what it is. While I do not fly for DL or NW and don't really have a vested interest in a potential DL-NW merger, I can't help but wonder what happend that made you so anti-Delta. I think any merger that will reduce capacity and possibly drive up airfares is a good thing. And while I'm at it, I think a reduction in regional jets would be a good thing as well!
 
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