AA and US (maybe not)

[BoeingBoy]

I've got a nephew at AA...

Say what you want, but I'd bet - based on the same smack talk in both of US' bankruptcies - that 95% or more of the employees that still have a job the day AA emerges from bankruptcy will show up for work like usual.

Jim

 

[AANOTOK]

I've got a nephew at AA...

Say what you want, but I'd bet - based on the same smack talk in both of US' bankruptcies - that 95% or more of the employees that still have a job the day AA emerges from bankruptcy will show up for work like usual.

Jim

Yes, Jim, I will be one of those workers that show up for work as usual. Have you noticed where AA has been finishing in the DOT rankings?
Now tell me Jim, with all this "smack talk", do you expect AA to improve in those rankings once they emerge from bankruptcy? So, Status Quo or as usual is not a good thing at AA! 🙄

 

[FWAAA]

The only people I ever hear talking about those DOT rankings (besides the media) are airline employees. I realize that your employers stress to you how important it is that your airline do well in those rankings - but I'm here to tell you that most passengers couldn't care less. Many of you are convinced that passengers choose whichever airline is cheaper that day on their interwebs search. If that's true (and to a large extent I think it is), then the DOT on-time and bag rankings are meaningless. Among my friends who buy expensive tickets and influence travel (because of their positions in their companies), the DOT rankings are likewise irrelevant. Lots of other airlines put the beatdown on their employees in bankruptcy and they're no longer on the bottom of those rankings. It will be the same with AA.

 

[wings396]

I've got a nephew at AA...

Say what you want, but I'd bet - based on the same smack talk in both of US' bankruptcies - that 95% or more of the employees that still have a job the day AA emerges from bankruptcy will show up for work like usual.

Jim

Jim is spot-on with this one. Many have the "Burn down the house" mentality, but reality sets in at some point. Most of the jobs that we do at the airlines, are worthless outside the industry. I'm not a pilot, so I can't say that holds true for them as they can end up flying elsewhere be it cargo, charter, etc. None the less, any of us that end up working for another company start at the bottom all over again. I gave it a shot after being furloughed, and it's tough if you are middle age and upward. Even a crappy job with less pay, is better than nothing....It sucks, but it's true. Don't believe me, go and give it a shot.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Have you noticed where AA has been finishing in the DOT rankings?

Yes, in the latest a passenger taking 100 flights would be later on 6 of them if flying AA vs #1 DL, less than 1 in 10 - not a big difference. Baggage - take 1000 flights on AA and have about 1 more instance of your baggage being mis-routed/delayed/lost - again not much difference. For all of last year the differences are less.

The differences are small enough, and the network carriers in a small enough range, that the chances are pretty much the same no matter what airline you fly.

Jim

 

[dash8roa]

I think you'll be surprised at how many, faced with the choice of a job or no job, will come to work the day after contracts are abrogated (assuming that will happen). I saw the bravado at US in both bankruptcies, the "this jobs not worth having" and "shut'er down if this is all I can expect" attitudes, and both times the company kept right on operating with the vast majority of employees showing up for work.

If you're so sure that you'll only get the PBGC pension, that the execs will get bonuses (they will in the form of "new" AA stock), it'll be so bad under AA's proposals, why are you still there? Look at those who have contacts lined up, resumes updated, see greener pastures outside of AA - why are they still there? As is said, "Talk is cheap."

Jim

Don't forget the famous line " the concession stand is closed". All talk and no backbone. <_<

 

[787nightmare]

From Star-Telegram:

"With all of the breaking news on Wednesday related to American Airlines' pensions I didn't have a chance to post about J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker's recent research note.

Baker, who is infamous among Wall Street analysts and airline reporters for asking former AMR chief executive Gerard Arpey "is this really all you've got?" on an earnings call, told investors on Wednesday that he believes AMR's restructuring plan fails to address key problems at the Fort Worth-based carrier.

He went on to say in a research note that there is a higher probability that AMR will eventually merger or be acquired by another airline.

"As AMR remains well inside its exclusivity period, we don’t believe further consolidation is likely imminent. But there’s little to prevent US Airways and Delta from starting to engage AMR’s creditors’ committee (particularly the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation or PBGC and labor), alliance members, and investors. The second half of 2012 could well be defined by these efforts," Baker wrote.

He added this about AMR's restructuring plan, "AMR’s proposed $1 billion of incremental revenue, comprising merely increased code-sharing and larger RJs, strikes us as ambitious, and would not solve what we see as its domestic deficiencies relative to superior network alternatives available at Delta and United."

Baker said a US Airways-AMR combination is more likely as a Delta-AMR combination would face significant regulatory hurdles. But he cautioned investors that an AMR merger is still not a foregone conclusion.

-Andrea Ahles"

 

[WorldTraveler]

Coming up w/ a billion dollars of new revenue that doesn't just go to pay for higher fuel prices is a very tough act to pull off.... and AA's network issues extend far beyond just their domestic system. Domestically, AA is on track to fall to #4 behind WN, DL, and UA... all of whose shares are moving w/ their own strategic plans.
Internationally, AA still hasn't put forth any plan to address is revenue issues in Asia or continental Europe where whatever gains it might be making with IB are being offset by losing their position in other continental Europe markets.
AA's strongest revenue region remains Latin America and the only one where their ability to control their destiny remains in their own hands, and will only increase as LanTam joins oneworld. But given that Latin America is the smallest global region for US airlines (including the domestic system), it makes the overall value of AA as a company highly dependent on Latin America with much of the rest of their system not as strategically important to the rest of the company. That overdependence on a small part of their system also means that the a merger partner could demonstrate better value to AMR's creditors by acquiring the most valuable parts of the company while not tying AMR's future to large parts of their network where they will find it difficult to return to a position of financial strength.