Air Wisconsin - The Runaway Bride?

[sfb]

US Airways senior management knew how the United - Air Wisconsin agreement would play out. The parties have been in negotiations for weeks, which is why Untied and Air Wisconsin reached a consensual agreement, versus a fight a la United- Air Wisconsin.

You mean "a fight a la United-ACA" and it's quite amusing how often you (unintentionally, of course, 🙄 ) type "Untied" at least once in every posting you make that references UAL. And of course it was going to play out this way. Once AWAC got a (somewhat) guaranteed home for its 70 RJ's, it was obvious that they weren't going to come down on price to where UAL wanted them to be. A gradual transitioning of AWAC from UA to US works best for all parties given how "painful" it would be for everyone (especially the passengers) to try to do it overnight.

For United & US Airways, the business partners seem to continue to work together. US Airways gets badly needed DIP/exit financing, a high quality carrier to join the US Airways Express network, and a partner interested in the long-term profits of the mainline, a partner whose employees are already Star Alliance trained", versus a company only interested in their "fee for service" payment.

If you don't believe that Air Wisconsin's primary motivations are its own interests (and maintaining its fee-for-departure profit stream), then you need to snap back to reality. They're not going to accept poorer terms from US than they were willing to accept from UA. I will agree that AWAC runs a better operation than Mesa or TSA, but we'll wait to see how they do in PHL and LGA.

In regard to leverage, you could see both Mesa and TSA replaced by Air Wisconsin and both Republic and Air Wisconsin operating 90seat RJs for US Airways Express.

What leverage does this provide the company? If there's no longer any room in the US Express system for Mesa and TSA, how exactly do you get them to invest? How does flying still more RJ's (even if they're 90-100 seaters) make US more competitive against WN, FL, B6, NK, or even DL?

For United, they get 30 new RJs with 70-seat capacity, better economics, which can be used to replace the ASM's lost with the 70 mainline jet reduction.

Are you sure the "mainline jet reduction" is 70 frames? The company's 10-K filing with the SEC says it will be 42.

Speaking of United, yesterday United CEO Glenn Tilton said (U.S. mainline airlines) "could eventually consolidate into three carriers."

For someone who fashions himself an analyst, you have difficulty differentiating between quotes from the subject of the article and the reporter. The quote attributable to Tilton is: "Three is a more likely and appropriate number," while the reporter uses the verbiage "could eventually consolidate into three carriers." This is not to say that the "consolidation" will not involve one or more network airlines liquidating as part of the process, either. With the current alliance picture, it appears that the network carriers have divided themselves into three codeshare groupings as well; I think it's also quite obvious that DOJ/DOT would not permit fewer than three large network carriers to emerge down the road (after potential liquidations, mergers, etc.).

 

[funguy2]

sfb - as usual, you make excellent points. And you touched upon something that is interesting and might warrant further discussion.

Assuming that Air Wisconsin/Eastlake is acting in their own best interests (and there is no reason to assume anything else, at this point), you have to wonder what the difference are between UAL's proposed contract terms are and US Airways proposed contract terms.

It stands to reason that the US-AWAC deal is less costly for US than their other contracts with Mesa and TSA. We know Republic/Chautauqua has agreed to reduced terms, and the others don't really matter as PSA and Mid Atlantic are wholly owned (whatever guaranteed profit there is stays within US Airways Group - its just a transfer of wealth within the group, if any such mechanism exists).

However, if AWAC is acting in its own best interest, then the US-AWAC contract must be more profitable for AWAC than what UA was offering. It makes me wonder if UA is getting a better deal on its regional feed - or conversely, if US is paying too much for its regional feed.

Also, the fact that UA is phasing out 70 50 seat jets, replaced only by 30 70 or so seat jets suggests two things to me:
1. UAL was probably targeting an Express CASM which could not be met by AWAC, or any other provider of 50-seat RJs.
2. Mike Boyd's prediction of an oversupply of 50-seat RJ's in the domestic US market is accurate.

Oh, and I guess out of this whole fiasco, I would have one more question... What does Air Wisconsin do with its BAe 146 aircraft? I thought they had around 17 of them?

 

[jack mama]

It will all make sense soon. I'm sure Lakefield is trying feverishly to convince Tilton to agree to a fee for service (cost + 8% profit) for US Airways to provide regional feed to United mainline...

 

[Light Years]

Oh, and I guess out of this whole fiasco, I would have one more question... What does Air Wisconsin do with its BAe 146 aircraft? I thought they had around 17 of them?

[post="261293"][/post]​

I think they had been planning on retiring them anyway. Coincidentally, many of those 146's came from mainline USAir via PSA (the real one).

 

[767jetz]

After all United has been in bankruptcy for 2.5 years and will likely have the longest formal reorganization in airline history. If you do not think that is trouble, what is?

[post="261259"][/post]​

Gee... Isn't one long and methodical bankruptcy done right better than multiple trips through the court ala USAir, Continental, TWA, etc.?

Nonetheless, I am glad that Untied was able to resolve the Dulles feed issues and reach a consensual agreement with Air Wisconsin.

[post="261259"][/post]​

Again, a great attempt to redirect the subject. Does this mean you admit being wrong? Or are you incapable of typing those words? You were the first to say it. You were also the first to be wrong.

the issue is you do not like the news I report, which I understand, but its the facts.

[post="261259"][/post]​

There is no issue to speak of. The truth is there is more opinion and speculation in your posts than fact. You are such a small speck of dust on the radar screen, your opinions mean nothing except to serve as entertainment to those who like to point out your hypocracy and inaacuracy.

By the way, you failed to answer my question, how many times did US Airways chairman David Bronner publicly state in interviews he was interested in buying United assets for US Airways?

[post="261259"][/post]​

Why would anyone care what Boner said or how many times he said it? Has it happened? NO. I have said publicly that I am interested in winning the lottery. If I ever do, can I come back here and claim to be the first who said it? That's why speculating is so attractive to you.

If you speculate about something that doesn't happen, you maintain deniability. You just say, "I never said it WOULD happen." If by chance it occurs, you claim to have "known it all along." I once knew a self-proclaimed psychic who did the same thing.

You are a farce my friend, and an embarassment to the pilot community.

 

[TheLarkAscending]

You are such a small speck of dust

Please, lets not continue to insult specks of dust! 😉

 

[USA320Pilot]

767jetz:

With all due respect, you're off-base. When I am wrong, I admit it. The issue here is simple: you do not like the report(s) so you "shoot the messenger." What's interesting is that I do not visit the UA board, but you routinely visit the US board. Why is that? If I am off-base...why even respond?

By the way, does it make you feel good to insult people, call them names, or purposely mispronounce names, while you hide behind a PC? My seven-year old does not do that...she is too mature for those things, but you...

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

P.S. How come you never answer my questions?

 

[TheLarkAscending]

or purposely mispronounce names

How does one go about mispronouncing a name on a computer screen, exactly? Or would that be a bogus reference to chronic misspellings as in "Untied"?

 

[700UW]

767jetz:
What's interesting is that I do not visit the UA board, but you routinely visit the US board.
Best regards,
USA320Pilot

[post="261401"][/post]​

Someone is not telling the truth!

usa320pilot on the UAL Board

 

[767jetz]

767jetz:

With all due respect, you're off-base. When I am wrong, I admit it. If I am off-base...why even respond?

[post="261401"][/post]​

You are just proving what a hypocrite you really are. What's the matter? Can't take your own advice? If I am off base... why even respond???

As for not visiting the UA board, someone else already pointed out what a liar you are. This is a free world. Oh yeah... I forgot how you don't like people pointing out your errors or contradicting you. Oh Well.

And aren't you hiding behind a keyboard miss-typing UNITED's name? Wouldn't be because you jealously lothe UA, would it?

If you admit when you are wrong, why not admit your error in predictions WRT the AWAC and ACA issues?

I thought I did answer your question. But let's forget about the fact that you haven't
answered mine. :blink:

Finally, saying I don't like what you have to say implies that I care about your opinions. This assumption could not be farther off base. You are an insignificant spec on the radar screen, therefore my indifference to you couldn't be greater.

I occasionally respond to your posts to expose you for who you really are, and because I consider you an embarrasment to the pilot community. (As do many others.) 🙄

 

[smfav8r]

Maybe Air Whiskey wanted to sever the ties with UAL in the first place...has anyone even considered that???

About 13 years ago UAL and the "BIG BAD WOLF" put the screws to Air Whiskey and gave aircraft and flying to a cheaper Atlantic Coast Airlines or Indy Air what ever they would like to call themselves today.

I'm not saying that U is the answer to Air Whiskey's prayers, but maybe the management of Air Whiskey felt UAL might be up to some old tricks out of Mr. Wolfs' playbook.

Just me 2 cents.

 

[justaumechanic]

767jetz:

With all due respect, you're off-base. When I am wrong, I admit it. The issue here is simple: you do not like the report(s) so you "shoot the messenger." What's interesting is that I do not visit the UA board, but you routinely visit the US board. Why is that? If I am off-base...why even respond?

By the way, does it make you feel good to insult people, call them names, or purposely mispronounce names, while you hide behind a PC? My seven-year old does not do that...she is too mature for those things, but you...

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

P.S. How come you never answer my questions?

[post="261401"][/post]​

Now that is the biggest Lie Ever told on this board.. You have never admitted anything when you are wrong.

You were the big cry boy for the UAL merger and when it didn't happen you didn't show your face on the board for months..

So do it now.. Admit you were wrong about the UAL merger as you have been wrong about just about every other pro management thing you have ever said on this board!!

And don't feed us this crap that you don't go to the UAL board.. Thats another lie. You go there more than most UAL people.. Just because you don't make a million posts on that board does not mean you don't go there.. You quote stuff from the UAL forum all the time..

Your a company stooge and a liar.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Justaumechainc:

Where was I wrong about the UA merger? I predicted on March 3, 2000 in front of the US ALPA MEC before it happened during the LOA 79 debate. Then I predicted the AA carve out, the AA ambivalence, the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act notice, the UCT discussions where Bronner said he was interested in buying UA assets for US, etc.

It's time for you to move on from your furlough, your anger and bitterness over what has happened is not healthy. With all due respect, I believe it would be good for you to move on.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[USA320Pilot]

767jetz:

Thanks for your professional posts, with more insults. Are you that way in the cockpit too?

Let us be honest here. You know US & UA have talked about M&A activity you are scared to death it could occur. Why? Seniority. The only reason you come to this board is to see what is being talked about on this topic and what I post. The issue is that you believe United pilots deserve super seniority with a pre-nuptial agreement, but that is very unlikely to happen due to ALPA Merger Policy and Allegheny-Mohawk LPPs. Furthermore, you cannot stand the fact that United have assets sold, I broke the news of the UCT, and then US Airways chairman of the board publicly said in four separate interviews he wanted to buy United assets for US Airways if it made sense for the Arlington-based company.

In regard to the past, I have posted on the UA board but it’s been a very long time and I do not view it now.

As I have said, I do not want to merge with United and I would like to see US Airways integrate with another company and reject the code share agreement. Why? I want my company to be with a stronger partner than United.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

P.S. Did you hear what one furloughed United piliot said to another furloughed United pilot? TED is United without "U-N-I" TED.

 

[700UW]

December was not that long time ago.