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[P class=MsoNormal][FONT face=Times New Roman]N628AU:[BR][BR]I do not like this situation at all, but management will do what is necessary to survive.[BR][BR]As discussed in the ALPA MEC Chairman's November 15 letter the company has a revenue shortfall and may not qualify for the loan guarantee. So what can management do?[BR][BR]Increase revenues and/or further cut costs and it appears they are doing both.[BR][BR]The company just announced today another 50 aircraft RJ deal with Mesa Airlines. With the 18 RJs Midway will provide plus the recent 20 RJ agreement with Mesa, where these jets begin flying in the US network in December, these three agreements will provide an additional 88 RJs that will provide additional mainline feed and revenue.[BR][BR]In addition, it is expected management and ALPA will work through the Freedom Air issue and reach an accord to bring on the EMB-170 and EMB-175 to the current wholly owned airlines, to further increase revenue at a faster rate than if management waits to bring on MDA. This will provide revenue faster that will permit a stronger loan guarantee application amendment to the ATSB.[BR][BR]In my opinion, in the future the three current wholly owneds will be merged into MDA with the pilot seniority list and flow through protections already agreed upon in the ALPA restructuring agreement.[BR][BR]Two additional revenue enhancements are the UA domestic alliance and the acceleration into Star, which Dave Siegel addressed at last week's Wings Luncheon in New York.[BR][BR]These revenue enhancements and the $425 to $475 million aircraft lessor cuts will help, but the company as will post bankruptcy options such as replacing the A330-300ERs with B767-300ERs, which combined with the B767-200ER would make a nice fit (for an independent company). In addition, Dave Siegel has stated that favorable leases are currently available to the company on B757-200's at favorable lease terms, presumably the former National Airline aaircraft who are powered by Rolls Roye Engines, whish is a natural fit for the company.[BR][BR]However, the company stated in an SEC filing that it wanted to cut annual costs by [/FONT][FONT face=Times New Roman][SPAN style=COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold]nearly $100-$300 million more a year than previous estimates - bringing cuts up to $1.6 billion annually - to achieve profitability.[BR][/SPAN][BR]Therefore, per the ALPA MEC Chairman, the Company has said publicly that if it doesn’t meet those conditions, it stands the risk of losing the loan (guarantee), [/FONT][SPAN style=COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold][FONT face=Times New Roman]and has made a formal request to all US Airways labor groups in an attempt to again reduce costs.[BR][BR]In my opinion, management has a huge hammer with the potential threat of canceling the defined benefit pension plan, which will save the airline an estimated $500 million per year. [/FONT][/SPAN][SPAN style=COLOR: #0b3053; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold][FONT face=Times New Roman]Therefore, once again is it better for the unions and management to reach voluntary concession accords before the US Airways board meeting the first week of December, to be included in the final Plan of Reorganization (POR) due to the court on December 9, or risk having the pension plans terminated?[BR][/FONT][/SPAN][SPAN style=COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman]Either way, I now believe US Airways will emerge from bankruptcy, qualify for the loan guarantee and further DIP financing, and will be a strong short, medium, and long-term player.[BR][BR]Chip[/FONT][/SPAN][/FONT][/SPAN][/P]