B6 Responds to Loss with Broader Expansion

Flying Titan

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Oct 14, 2003
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JetBlue's stunning fourth-quarter loss, bleak 2006 outlook 'our own doing'
Thursday February 2, 2006

JetBlue Airways' inability to control costs and misplaced capacity increases cost it dearly in the final quarter of 2005 as it suffered a net loss of $42.4 million--by far its worst quarterly performance since it started service in February 2000.JetBlue earned $1.5 million in the year-ago quarter. The surprising 2005 result plunged the carrier into the red for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31. It posted a $20.3 million annual loss compared to a $46.2 million profit in 2004. In addition, it is forecasting a loss in both the current quarter and for full-year 2006.

Chairman and CEO Dave Neeleman said, "A lot of this is our own doing" as the airline was unable to recover from a disastrous October when hurricanes drove fuel costs skyward and forced cancellations that sapped revenue. "It would be nice to have hedges like Southwest, because if we did we'd have a similar margin to theirs. But frankly, we don't," he said. "We are transitioning from an airline used to lower fuel prices that has to get used to higher fuel prices."

Fourth-quarter revenues rose 34% over the year-ago quarter to $446 million, but expenses increased 48.3% to $477.5 million. Included in that figure were one-time charges consisting of $6.9 million in noncash stock-based compensation expense related to the accelerated vesting of some employee stock options and $6.1 million for developmental costs related to a scrapped maintenance and inventory tracking system. Operating loss was $31.5 million compared to a $10.8 million profit in the fourth quarter of 2004.

Traffic increased 22% to 5.16 billion RPMs but capacity rose 24.7% to 6.36 billion ASMs, dropping load factor 1.8 points to 81.1%. "We were our own worst enemy by adding too much capacity in certain markets," Neeleman said. "Instead of adding capacity [on existing routes], we have to shift capacity to new markets. We're going to announce 8-10 new markets this year."

Yield jumped 8.1% to 8.16 cents and average fare rose 8.9% to $109.33. "We need to figure out how to get $115-$120," Neeleman said. "We feel our customers will pay us more to fly JetBlue because we deserve it, but we need to ask for it. Nobody's going to donate money to our cause."

Fourth-quarter operating RASM increased 7.4% to 7.02 cents as CASM leaped 18.9% to 7.51 cents. CASM excluding fuel still rose 7.9% to 5.12 cents. Fuel cost soared 89.5% to $152 million, or $1.87 per gallon. The carrier expects to pay an average of $1.98 in 2006 net of hedges, which will "drive a lot of activity, from maintaining cost discipline to finding ways to improve revenue," according to a spokesperson.

JetBlue's full-year results were shaped largely by the final quarter. It posted revenues of $1.7 billion, a 34.5% increase over 2004. Operating expenses jumped 43.3% to $1.65 billion and operating profit fell 57.1% to $47.6 million. Additional expenses, including a 99.2% increase in interest payments to $106.5 million, hurt the bottom line. It cited an expected CASM increase of 4%-6% excluding fuel in 2006 and capacity growth of 28%-30% when forecasting a loss for this year.

by Brian Straus, ATW Online

Seems like an interesting approach, fighting through their growing pains by trying to grow even faster!
 
JBLU is expanding with the worst on-time record, inexperienced flight crews and planes that may fall out of the sky?
 
I'm not sure that it's such a good idea to add so many new markets in such a short period of time...but "planes that may fall out of the sky"?????

If theirs may fall out of the sky, then why is everyone in the industry rushing to buy ths same family of aircraft??? US Airways, Delta, United, and a long list of foreign carriers....

Fortunately, most people on this board can muster a little more constructive criticism than that.
 
Planes falling out of the sky, I almost fell out of my seat reading that, GOOD ONE! Seriously though, can they grow their way out of their current problems or only make them worse since some think the rapid growth caused the problems in the first place?
 
Planes falling out of the sky, I almost fell out of my seat reading that, GOOD ONE! Seriously though, can they grow their way out of their current problems or only make them worse since some think the rapid growth caused the problems in the first place?
What airline decides to take on a new type and then decide they will take 2 per month? An arrogant one. I do not understand why they did not stick with one fleet type. The E-190, may turn out to be a good aircraft, but from I have heard, it is not performing very well, with many parked at a time due to mx. At a time where fuel costs continue to be an issue, I do not see how they can continue to expand to new markets. Epecially with a non-performing aircraft.

"We can make money at 80 dollars a barrel"

They will never live that one down!
 
If theirs may fall out of the sky, then why is everyone in the industry rushing to buy ths same family of aircraft??? US Airways, Delta, United, and a long list of foreign carriers....

I highly doubt you'll ever see a bus wearing DL colors.
 
"We can make money at 80 dollars a barrel"

They will never live that one down!

FYI, they could have. The problem is that the crack spread post-Katrina and Rita went from about $5 per barrel to $60 per barrel, in effect yielding $120 per barrel of jet fuel. If the crack spread hadn't taken off like that (it's never happened before), we wouldn't be discussing any losses here. The losses for the quarter (and therefore the year) all took place in October, primarily due not to the price of crude, but the price of refined product. The $80 quote came off like mere bravado, but it was accurate.
 
What airline decides to take on a new type and then decide they will take 2 per month? An arrogant one. I do not understand why they did not stick with one fleet type. The E-190, may turn out to be a good aircraft, but from I have heard, it is not performing very well, with many parked at a time due to mx. At a time where fuel costs continue to be an issue, I do not see how they can continue to expand to new markets. Epecially with a non-performing aircraft.

Norman,
The first 190 arrived in September. In almost 5 months we have maybe 7 airplanes. Yes we are getting two airplanes per month; 1 bus and 1 190.
As for maintenance issues, the airplane has had its problems but dispatch reliability has been within 2 or 3 percentage points of the bus. In fact for a few days it had a higher dispatch reliability than the Airbus. Furthermore JetBlue received an award for the HIGHEST dispatch reliability in the world for the A320 for an airline of its size.
 
Furthermore JetBlue received an award for the HIGHEST dispatch reliability in the world for the A320 for an airline of its size.

You know, not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, but that illustrious title doesn't mean a whole heckuva lot.

It's like saying "Boeing gave Southwest an award for having the best dispatch reliability of any carrier with over 400 737s on the premises."

Here's the deal as I see it:

JetBlue will expand. They have no choice. The airplanes are coming in. Their astonishingly low fares have stimulated their current markets to their full extent. The airplanes have to go someplace. And nobody has ever really succeeded in shrinking themselves to profitability.

But the bloom is off the rose. JetBlue is no longer au courant...the flavor of the week. It's an airline, nothing more and nothing less. The FAs boasting of "enjoy the JetBlue experience" during the welcoming announcements is more apt to be describing "enjoy a late flight." A 63% on time record for the year is nothing to boast about.

What do travelers really want? That is the billion dollar question. They want low fares....we know that. They want to arrive at their destination safely...that's a given. I guess we will find out what the tradeoff is.....do we, the ticket buying public....prefer a flight that gets us to our intended destination at the scheduled time more than we want a little TV screen and blue tater chips?

It might be nice to have it all. But perhaps, in this life and in the sirline business, that is not possible. So...what is it that the traveling public wants the most?

It is possible for B6 to fix the on time stats, but at the cost of utilization. And as utilization goes down, costs go up, and as costs go up, so do fares.

The real problem is JetBlue has very little they can do except raise the fares.

They can't chop employee wages. Their salaries already are crummy when compared to the rest of the industry.

They can't lower fares to generate additional traffic. They are already running about as high a load factor as is possible and the break even load factor is waaaaay up there.

They can't slow their expansion. New planes are coming.

They can't increase utilization. A day only has 24 hrs.

They can't increase their average stage length. All those transcons have their average stage length about double what Southwest's is. And those smaller E190s aren't designed to be flown for those longer hauls.

Here is what will happen:

The E190s arrive. JetBlue said, originally, that flying the E190 was going to raise the CASM by a penny. I said more than that. However, we all agree...the CASM is going up as the E190s arrive.

The Airbuses (Airbii?) are going to start having to undergo some pricier maintenance. The planes are not new anymore. The company elected to account for maintenance on a "pay as you go" basis rather than stick money in escrow per flight hour as an airworthiness reserve. So even the airbus fleet will cost more in maintenance.

The stock options are of no value to the employees. They are going to want some salary increases. Nobody wants to fly around indefinitely for chump change when the other airlines' pilots are making better money. Same goes for the ramp, the FAs, the ticket agents. You get the picture. JetBlue is maturing. The employees are going to want a slice of the pie. Neeleman's wife isn't having to take in washing or sell Mary Kay cosmetics to pay the mortgage.

Fares will go up. As a result, demand will go down. Not by much. But it doesn't take much.

Other airlines have their costs in better shape than they did 5 yrs ago...in some cases due to bankruptcy court. So....any expansion on to United's turf with the E-190s is liable to be met with a healthy competitive response. Same thing is true anywhere JetBlue goes. Other carriers are not likely to sit idly by and let JetBlue take their business, afraid to compete since they can't compete on cost. B6 in Islip? WN gives B6 a taste of $19 fares on all sides of Long Beach. B6 decide to go to ORD? UA and AA up their JFK service. B6 decides to try Atlanta again? DL saturates JFK to FL for $39.

The game is not over, and B6 is far from being doomed. However, the easy part of the game is finished. Having survived to become a profitable airline....B6 is fixing to find out that the hard part is remaining a profitable airline as one matures....planes get older, costs go up, on time reputation becomes something to overcome.

It will all be intriguing to watch.
 
Pretty good analysis there, Elp. I said a year or more ago that there were some interesting experiments going on in the industry:

Indy Air - a "low cost carrier" that utilizes all (initially) or mostly small RJ's. We know how that turned out. Mesa seems intent on trying the same thing (though with only a small portion of the airline) in Hawaii - will their contract side end up subsidizing that?

JetBlue - breaking from the "Southwest model" by adding the second fleet type.

AirTran - a "hybrid" new generation carrier (low cost hub/spoke coach/business class) adding the second fleet type.

Since these were announced, another experiment has begun. Can new management and a merger convert a high-cost failing legacy carrier into a successful "hybrid" carrier? Obviously, I'm refering to my employer - US Airways.

You're right - the next few years will be interesting to watch. Interesting indeed.....

Jim
 
Furthermore JetBlue received an award for the HIGHEST dispatch reliability in the world for the A320 for an airline of its size.

Actually, it was the highest Airbus dispatch rate for any airline in the world, period. No qualifiers. Thought you should know.


ELP, agree for the most part. I could niggle on a couple of points, but it wouldn't change the main thrust of your argument. Good analysis.
 
What will help JBLU and all the other carriers (except LUV) is lower oil prices...As long as Iran doesn't blow up.

Their 2006 fiscal year loss projections were based on fuel at $1.92/gallon...
 
What will help JBLU and all the other carriers (except LUV) is lower oil prices...As long as Iran doesn't blow up.

Their 2006 fiscal year loss projections were based on fuel at $1.92/gallon...

So would free airplanes or a repeal of all federal taxes and PFCs or free terminal rent or zero landing fees or minimum wages for all employees, but none of those are gonna happen either.

Successful airline operations will require ticket prices to match (or, god forbid, even EXCEED) costs.

Hoping for lower fuel prices ain't gonna do it.

Time for Neeleman to admit defeat and slow down the capacity additions.

It's long past time for airline execs to plan as though fuel is always gonna be $2.25+/gal. Planning for lower prices is the ticket to financial ruin.
 

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