Can we Afford 15 bilion..... in Aircraft ?

[FrequentFlierCA]

Agree with FWAAA. Assuming a steadily continuing rise in the price of oil (a reasonable assumption with demand from emerging markets) any airline that didn't invest in more fuel efficient planes would be toast.

 

[eolesen]

<_< ------- So FW, your finally admitting there is in fact a "labor shortage"! My! My! My!

Nobody disputes the number of graybeards getting ready to retire in the next few years. You were on the leading edge of that curve, but there's definitely a bubble with regard to seniority in the industry right now.

Where Bob may be correct is that there isn't an equal number of replacements available today. That's why the concept of a NWA sytle lockout is a red herring. If you all retired or quit at once, there'd be problems. But, on a graduated basis, I still think there are more under-employed AMTs out there who would come back into the industry than Bob does.

Throw in a maintenance holiday, and there may not be a need for an equal number of replacements. That allows enough time to start partnering with schools or establishing an ab inito type program (which I know some of you guys look down on because it didn't exist when you started, and you had to punch your tickets at FBOs, MROs and regionals before getting on with a major).

Tim, I'm done playing "Six Degrees to How Great Delta Is" here in the AA Forum... You can save that for the DL room.