Consolidation

Row,
you might be a bit more convinced in the next couple months. DL has said part of their plan is to grow a whole lot more in the international arena. You might recall that DL brought in two network guys from CO. If you look at what CO has done internationally from EWR and IAH, I think you can count on DL doing many of the same things from JFK and ATL. If that turns out to be true, DL will be a much stronger international player and will be well suited to stand alone like CO is doing or become a very attractive merger partner for someone.

NW can't even fly their current international route system because of a shortage of long range aircraft. Case in point: NW just dumped JFK-NRT to replace a 25 year old fuel-guzzling 747-200 on the LAXNRT run. Doesn't exactly look like NW has a whole lot of resources available to expand into China, does it? Oh, and United has four widebody nonstops to the US from China plus 3 to Hong Kong; NW has 3 flights to China plus 1 to HKG and they are all to Tokyo - and they are not even all on widebody aircraft!

DL on the other hand has dozens of 767s that are actually flying on the domestic system in domestic configuation but are international capable. DL has already said those planes will be reconfigured and moved to the international operation. Further, DL can reduce leases on the hundreds of RJs in their fleet in order to get rid of those pesky 50 seaters. They will keep Comair intact through bankruptcy since they are serving as collateral for their DIP financing but then dump a bunch of those CRJs as part of their plan to exit from bankruptcy - not unlike US rejected their PIT lease on the final day of BK #1.