DAL has best earnings upside revisions in industry

[WorldTraveler]

DL will be the first airline to report its earnings tomorrow. DL has consistently been the first to report and has set the climate and the bar for earnings in the industry.

Going into the release, DL has earned the highest number of revisions of analysts estimates among the big 4 US airlines - 133 upward revisions in the last 30 days, 1 in the last 7.

For UAL, it has been 10 in the last 30 and 1 in the last 7. UAL has also had one analyst revise its earnings estimate down.
for LUV, it has been 5 in the last 30 and 1 in the last 7.

AAL has had 2 upward analyst revisions in the last 30 days and 1 downward in the same time frame.

"That is because Delta Air Lines is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late, which is generally a precursor to an earnings beat. After all, analysts raising estimates right before earningswith the most up-to-date information possibleis a pretty good indicator of some favorable trends underneath the surface for DAL in this report."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-earnings-season-could-great-133201228.html

 

[jcw]

I guess you don't realize that companies have schedules they follow and don't adjust their earnings annoucements around.  For example ALCOA is always the first fortune 500 company to announce earnings - it doesn't make ALCOA the best performing company
 
However DL will have the best quarter of every airline - so don't worry - everyone loves a DL earnings annoucement and the lengthy posts that will follow from said cheerleader - that's sarcasim

 

[eolesen]

The guy who goes first in any competition is always the leader. Until they're not.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I guess you don't realize that companies have schedules they follow and don't adjust their earnings annoucements around.  For example ALCOA is always the first fortune 500 company to announce earnings - it doesn't make ALCOA the best performing company
 
However DL will have the best quarter of every airline - so don't worry - everyone loves a DL earnings annoucement and the lengthy posts that will follow from said cheerleader - that's sarcasim

wrong.

There is no order in which any company in an industry is required to release its earnings.

companies release the date of their earnings release usually one to two weeks before the actual date and often they provide investor guidance or updates at the same time, but that is not necessary.

as for what actually might be released, on an operating margin basis, DL is expected to be at or near the top of what its peers are expecting.

given that DL will have very large MTM adjustments (charges) due to fuel hedges, the net profit is not likely to be at the top of the industry at all.

What is significant about the revisions in analyst estimates is that DL has updated and increased the size of its expected hedge losses for 2015 and yet the analyst community is generally improving their estimates of DL's performance.

as I have noted many, many times, the revenue environment and how well DL has managed to succeed in it apparently has a far more significant role in determining earnings than many people on here believe - and also is improving based on new information the analysts have received both specifically for DL and relative ot the industry.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I don't understand the excitement regarding the analyst revisions of earnings estimates. 
 
Kind of reminds me of high school: 
"Dude, there's be 4 kegs at the party on Saturday"
"Awesome!  There's gonna be hot chicks there too"
"Sweet!  So and so is bringing hard liquor too"
"Oh man, when you combine music and booze with a slip n slide it turns halter tops into a bikinis .........hehehehehe"
 
Why not wait until the earnings are released and then first congratulate DL and it's employees on a job well done, followed by an "expert" analysis of what could be done better/differently?

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Oh, and the sad (or is it hilarious?) thing is that the OP doesn't even work for DL any longer.

 

[WorldTraveler]

as if being an active employee is the only financial reason someone would have regarding DL's financial performance?

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot obsession is also a valid reason for the excitement regarding just a revision of earnings estimates.

 

[WorldTraveler]

or more likely there are direct financial reasons that you don't want to admit are equally valid for multiple groups of people.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

or more likely there are direct financial reasons that you don't want to admit are equally valid for multiple groups of people.

 
Actual earnings reports, yes, there is reason to be excited.
Analyst revisions of earnings estimates?  Nah, no excitement, at least not for any multiple groups of normal people.

 

[jcw]

wrong.

There is no order in which any company in an industry is required to release its earnings.

companies release the date of their earnings release usually one to two weeks before the actual date and often they provide investor guidance or updates at the same time, but that is not necessary.

as for what actually might be released, on an operating margin basis, DL is expected to be at or near the top of what its peers are expecting.

given that DL will have very large MTM adjustments (charges) due to fuel hedges, the net profit is not likely to be at the top of the industry at all.

What is significant about the revisions in analyst estimates is that DL has updated and increased the size of its expected hedge losses for 2015 and yet the analyst community is generally improving their estimates of DL's performance.

as I have noted many, many times, the revenue environment and how well DL has managed to succeed in it apparently has a far more significant role in determining earnings than many people on here believe - and also is improving based on new information the analysts have received both specifically for DL and relative ot the industry.

 
 
Once again you have no clue - companies decide when they are going to report each quarter - they don't randomly change their reports - hence DL goes first because that is when they are ready to report
 
Go back an look and you will see reporting usually on the same X # of days post close of the reporting
 
Anyone steeped in financial analysis would have a clue on earnings release processes

 

[eolesen]

The date of release has little to do with preparedness. Most publicly traded companies schedule their earnings release date around their board meetings. A few decide to do otherwise.

Earnings are typically known by the fifth or sixth business day of the month (It usually takes a few days for the accounting close and reconciliation to take place).

I know for a fact the company I work for had their earnings release ready to go as of mid last week (I sit with next to the Financial Planning folks who write the executive briefing books). Since the board won't meet until later in the month, all stays under wraps (and quite closely held) until the actual board meeting date.

 

[FWAAA]

Delta recently reported that its operating margin will be (8)% to (9)% - yes, that's negative margin, due to the effect of the mark to market fuel hedging paper losses which will be approximately $2 billion for the 4th quarter (the hedging losses are about 20% of 4th quarter revenue).

http://ir.delta.com/files/4Q/Investor%20update/Investor-Update-January-5-2015_v001_a0po38.pdf

Excluding special items and those mark to market hedging losses, DL is estimating positive margins of 12% to 13% for the 4th quarter. Thing is, if fuel prices stay where they are for a while, then those mark to market losses of $2 billion will turn into real out-of-pocket losses of $2 billion, which will be shown as higher fuel prices throughout 2015.

Spot prices for jet fuel have fallen quite a bit even since 12/31/14, compounding the potential paper losses.

Operationally, DL's results look good for the 4th quarter, but the paper losses are likely to cause DL to report a sizable 4th quarter GAAP loss.

 

[topDawg]

Delta recently reported that its operating margin will be (8)% to (9)% - yes, that's negative margin, due to the effect of the mark to market fuel hedging paper losses which will be approximately $2 billion for the 4th quarter (the hedging losses are about 20% of 4th quarter revenue).

http://ir.delta.com/files/4Q/Investor%20update/Investor-Update-January-5-2015_v001_a0po38.pdf

Excluding special items and those mark to market hedging losses, DL is estimating positive margins of 12% to 13% for the 4th quarter. Thing is, if fuel prices stay where they are for a while, then those mark to market losses of $2 billion will turn into real out-of-pocket losses of $2 billion, which will be shown as higher fuel prices throughout 2015.

Spot prices for jet fuel have fallen quite a bit even since 12/31/14, compounding the potential paper losses.

Operationally, DL's results look good for the 4th quarter, but the paper losses are likely to cause DL to report a sizable 4th quarter GAAP loss.

you know... Its interesting that it is okay for Delta to keep getting its shirt handed to them in the hedge game (billions in the last few years) 
 
but can't afford better health care coverage or less out sourcing. Funny how what works.... 

 

[jimntx]

TopDawg!  Be ye cast into outer darkness without hope of redemption!  Thou hast spoken ill of great god DELTA.  Blasphemy!  And, thou hast told an untruth.  If the health care coverage is provided by DELTA, there is no other better health care coverage.  Thee should learn gratitude for the gifts thou art given.