DL grows PNW with new SEA/PDX Hawaii service

[WorldTraveler]

DL flew PDX-HNL for years, stopped it when the AS codeshare was growing, and is now retaking it.

SEA-KOA is also being added, DL's only KOA service outside of LAX, validating DL's two hub west coast strategy.

both appear to be seasonal service but DL's booking window only goes to mid-January 2016 so it's hard to tell.

http://airlineroute.net/2015/02/22/dl-hnlkoa-dec15/

the reliable 757 will be used.

 

[topDawg]

Not the only SEA change coming
717 showing up on LAX (2x) PHX(2x) and LAS(2x) Starts in Sept. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

The PMNW is a seasonal market which means that all of the capacity that DL is putting into SEA will be pulled down in the summer. the 717 is great for scaling down the 8 or so 737-8/900s that DL has on LAX-SEA this summer while PHX has never had mainline service (it is a two month old route) and LAS (which has had mainline but is also heavily an Ejet market).

Given that there are repeated confirmations that DL has acquired up to 11 more 717s, a few of which will be used for parts instead of to fly, means that DL's use of the 717 will be a key means to add capacity to both LAX and SEA where gate space is limited but where there continues to be demand for DL's services.

The Hawaii flights are just a seasonal readjustment of the typical north-south nature of DL's west coast network during the summer.

 

[topDawg]

The PMNW is a seasonal market which means that all of the capacity that DL is putting into SEA will be pulled down in the summer. the 717 is great for scaling down the 8 or so 737-8/900s that DL has on LAX-SEA this summer while PHX has never had mainline service (it is a two month old route) and LAS (which has had mainline but is also heavily an Ejet market).

Given that there are repeated confirmations that DL has acquired up to 11 more 717s, a few of which will be used for parts instead of to fly, means that DL's use of the 717 will be a key means to add capacity to both LAX and SEA where gate space is limited but where there continues to be demand for DL's services.

The Hawaii flights are just a seasonal readjustment of the typical north-south nature of DL's west coast network during the summer.

I am not sure if capacity is going down on LAX-SEA. It'll be close. The 717 is replacing 1 738 and 1 E75 but I think i saw a 739 flight or two in there. (right now the summer is set for all 738 and 1 E75.) So it might be a slight up tick in capacity. (Even if it isn't we are only talk ~10 seats) 
 
Also I don't know where/why people are saying the 717s T5 will be part out planes. All 6 are, AFAIK, in good shape and I believe LHT are the ones who do the work on them. (They, like Delta, use Rollers for engine work) I'm also not sure if the 717 would benefit from the part out program, when Delta has so many MD80s and MD90s that are being parted out. (and Delta doesn't have to worry about the engines)
 
IMO the Blue1 and Turkmenistan birds will all be flying. Should give them the mass network needs for at least one 717 base out west if not two. (sounds like LAX and SLC right now)  

 

[WorldTraveler]

that would be great news if all of the 717s are flyable.

as far as bases, remember that SEA just gained a 737 base so DL has a lot of narrowbody capacity coming to the west coast. Considering that the 739ER is essentially a 757 sized aircraft, DL has or will have pilots to fly the majority of DL's aircraft types and ranges and sizes in the western US.

still, it is very likely that DL will pull down some capacity on the West coast after Labor Day. The demand is just not there and DL demonstrates elsewhere that it can keep frequencies where they need to be without putting in capacity that only will hurt DL.

 

[topDawg]

that would be great news if all of the 717s are flyable.

as far as bases, remember that SEA just gained a 737 base so DL has a lot of narrowbody capacity coming to the west coast. Considering that the 739ER is essentially a 757 sized aircraft, DL has or will have pilots to fly the majority of DL's aircraft types and ranges and sizes in the western US.

still, it is very likely that DL will pull down some capacity on the West coast after Labor Day. The demand is just not there and DL demonstrates elsewhere that it can keep frequencies where they need to be without putting in capacity that only will hurt DL.

that doesn't mean as much in the big picture. It was a base the was based off of draw downs in other bases (SLC/CVG) and not very big. The 739 is also replacing a huge chunk of 757 flying out of SEA(and Delta has a 757 base in SEA too) so it was only natural. 
 
But as it is I don't know is SEA will get a 717 base. I think they will be able to crew the SEA flying pretty easily with LAX and I think SLC could use the 717 more. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

there are a net increase of 739s being added compared to the 757s that are being added... and the 321s start coming next year but will likely be used for Eastern US flying.

The 739 is a low cost competitor - and AS uses it as well. DL has the fleet flexibility to match aircraft types with the competition.

AS' strategy is to upgauge to 739s which are lower CASM but is diluting its own RASM by adding capacity to the market in an attempt to minimize share loss.

all they are doing is ensuring that DL will have a place in the market and gambling that they can keep their costs low enough to beat DL.

Given that DL also has int'l flying which helps provide feed and profits to make SEA work, AS is far more likely to hurt themselves more than they will hurt DL.

but SEA recognizes AS' strategy will require more gates and they are moving to accommodate DL's growth.

The AS tactic of locking up facilities hasn't worked so now they are trying to dilute revenues, a strategy that will hurt them far more than DL.

 

[WorldTraveler]

here is DL"s press release and it includes additional service not previously mentioned here including to PSP and Mexican resort destinations.

•One daily flight to Kona on the Big Island of Hawaii beginning Dec. 19, 2015
•One additional daily flight to Palm Springs, Calif., for a total of two daily seasonal flights beginning Dec. 19, 2015
•One daily seasonal flight to Tucson, Ariz., which was previously Saturday service, beginning Dec. 19, 2015
•Extension of seasonal service to daily year-round service to Fairbanks and Juneau, Alaska, beginning May 15, 2015
•Expanded seasonal service to Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, beginning Oct. 3, 2015

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-adds-kona-flight-more-170000278.html

 

[topDawg]

there are a net increase of 739s being added compared to the 757s that are being added... and the 321s start coming next year but will likely be used for Eastern US flying.

They will fly long hauls, probably replacing some 757s out of SLC. They have much bigger motors than the 739 FWIW.


 

all they are doing is ensuring that DL will have a place in the market and gambling that they can keep their costs low enough to beat DL.

Its not a gamble. AS will be keeping its costs lower than DL. Both are planning CASM growth of around 0-2% YOY. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL is not planning on using the 321s for transcons while the 738s and 739s will be. Even if they are in SLC, that is at best a 2/3 transcon route. ATL and DTW are at the opposite end of the 2/3. the 321s will also likely be heavily used to Florida. since nearly all of DL's Florida flights are less than 5 hours long, the 321 should be more than capable of operating them.

the 321 has larger engines but the aircraft is heavier than the 738 and 739.

I'd love to have the wider cabin 320 family flying longer flights than the 737 family but your employer has more faith in Boeing's ability for its narrowbodies to operate longhaul domestic flights

as for AS' CASM, no one expects their CASM will become higher than DL.

DL does have greater revenue generating ability at SEA in part because of its global network and int'l routes and also because of DL's larger domestic network and not using SEA as a connecting hub where it doesn't need to be.

AS is connecting passengers over SEA that DL can far more efficiently connect over other hubs that are more "on the way"

AS' cost advantage is lost on many connecting segments where they have to carry passengers all the way to the NW corner of the US and then carry them back south or east

 

[topDawg]

DL is not planning on using the 321s for transcons while the 738s and 739s will be. Even if they are in SLC, that is at best a 2/3 transcon route. ATL and DTW are at the opposite end of the 2/3. the 321s will also likely be heavily used to Florida. since nearly all of DL's Florida flights are less than 5 hours long, the 321 should be more than capable of operating them.

the 321 has larger engines but the aircraft is heavier than the 738 and 739.

I'd love to have the wider cabin 320 family flying longer flights than the 737 family but your employer has more faith in Boeing's ability for its narrowbodies to operate longhaul domestic flights

as for AS' CASM, no one expects their CASM will become higher than DL.

DL does have greater revenue generating ability at SEA in part because of its global network and int'l routes and also because of DL's larger domestic network and not using SEA as a connecting hub where it doesn't need to be.

AS is connecting passengers over SEA that DL can far more efficiently connect over other hubs that are more "on the way"

AS' cost advantage is lost on many connecting segments where they have to carry passengers all the way to the NW corner of the US and then carry them back south or east

That is the exact opposite of what we are being told. 321s will operate tcons and mid cons. 
as well as short flying. 
 
But if you look at what the 739 do it the same thing. 
 
Oh and Delta uses airbus on Tcons. LAX-TPA had a 320 for about four years. It just switched back to a 737 not to long ago. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

LAX - Florida is only slightly longer than SLC to the NE or DTW or ATL to CA.

let me know when DL uses 321s or 320s on NE US to CA transcons.

Until the 320s are finished with cabin mods, the 738 has 10 more seats which makes for better costs.

and if DL uses the 321s on transcons, then it will likely necessitate putting a 320 pilot base on the west coast which IIRC doesn't exist.

given that DL just added the 737 to SEA in addition to the one in LAX, I think that says that the 737 will be DL's primary narrowbody on the west coast. They knew the 321s were coming and could have added a 320 base to the west coast but didn't.

 

[topDawg]

LAX - Florida is only slightly longer than SLC to the NE or DTW or ATL to CA.

You said transcons. didn't put a time limit on them. 
 

let me know when DL uses 321s or 320s on NE US to CA transcons.

NE US to CA Tcons? lets count them
LAX-BOS 738s
JFK-SFO 757
JFK-LAX 757/767
JFK-SAN 738
 
4 routes, two of which the 321 wouldn't fly because of the cabin. 1 (LAX-BOS) that is to long for the 739 or the 321 most of the year and 1 JFK-SAN that could be a 321 route but would be an upgrade in capacity. 
 
So you are basing what the 321s will do because of 1 route....... riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiggggggghhhhhhhhhttttttt
 

Until the 320s are finished with cabin mods, the 738 has 10 more seats which makes for better costs.

The 320 wont be seeing much if anything flights longer than 3 hours. This is due to a lot of things including MTOW and the engines. 
but you didn't say 320 you said 321
So you point is meaningless
 

and if DL uses the 321s on transcons, then it will likely necessitate putting a 320 pilot base on the west coast which IIRC doesn't exist.

No it wouldn't. the bulk of Trancon flying Delta has are JFK and ATL flights. Both have a 320 base along with a 73N base
SEA's only true transcons are ATL and JFK. Again both of those have Airbus bases and doesn't need one on the SEA end. 
LAX has exactly 5 routes that don't touch an airbus base. BOS isn't going Airbus. RDU and TPA have already been the bus before. MIA and MCO are the only 737 constant routes there. 
 
but more importantly LAX/SEA don't "need" a 320 base. SLC can cover those two hubs for some airbus flying. You are talking about very limited operations for the 321 from those two hubs. Most of the transcons from those two will probably be 738s and 757s because of the lack of legs in both the 739 and 321.
But a trans con like ATL-SJC for example would be fine for the 321. 
 
 
 

given that DL just added the 737 to SEA in addition to the one in LAX, I think that says that the 737 will be DL's primary narrowbody on the west coast. They knew the 321s were coming and could have added a 320 base to the west coast but didn't.

Delta adds and drops bases all the time. You are putting way to much stock into what bases are where. DTW have a 777 base and exactly zero 777 flights. 
 
what matters is coverage. LAX and SEA will and can see some limited 319/320/321 flying because the bases around them. With SLC, MSP, NYC, DTW and ATL all having 320 bases for, again limited flying, the two smaller hubs of LAX/SEA don't need bases. 
 
Of course Delta wouldn't open an LAX or SEA 320 base now anyways. It would be at least a year before than happens. 321s don't come till next year. 

 

[700UW]

US flies the A321 for transcon flights.

 

[WorldTraveler]

correct.... DL has indicated it will not.

and dawg needs to sit down with a DL route map and travelnet and realize DL flies a whole lot more routes than what he listed from the NE US to states that border the Pacific ocean.

he also would do well to talk with DL pilots who fly the 738 and 9 who say that the 739ER (not UA's 739s) has the range to fly the same routes the 738 does. beautifully, no. that award will only go to the 757 among narrowbodies.

and I didn't say that the 321 couldn't make NE US to US west coast solely because of performance issues. I said DL won't use the aircraft on those routes. Period. The fact that the 321 is as large as 752 in its current capacity but that the 320 cannot fly true transcon routes and there are no 320 DL pilot bases on the west coast all factor into the reasons why DL will use 757s and 737 versions for the majority of west coast and transcon flying, including to/from ATL and DTW which aren't near as far from the west coast as NYC and BOS are.

oh and you might consider that DL will have north of 150 738s and 739s but just 30 321s and that might also give you some insight into why DL will keep the 321s concentrated in a fairly small geographic part of the country

there are people who have thought it all out even if some here have not.